Making A Difference

Clinton Begs, Sharif Differs

Pakistan's seven tests undermine the US administration's clout

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Clinton Begs, Sharif Differs
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THE Pakistan nuclear tests on May 28 and May 30 delivered a double whammy to US foreign policy objectives. Not only did President Bill Clinton lose face, the blasts also put paid to another of his cherished goals—to get the Senate to ratify the CTBT.

In the last two weeks Washington had brought all its considerable diplomatic clout to bear on Pakistan to dissuade it from nuclear testing. But it didn't work. What does that say for US foreign policy initiatives? Clinton made several impassioned pleas to Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif and a high-powered American delegation led by deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott visited Islamabad. To no avail. Although the White House is trying to gloss over the apparent failure of American diplomacy and Clinton's personal intervention, several analysts have remarked on how far the US administration stuck its neck out when it was clear that there was not going to be much chance of success.

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A former state department official said that when Sharif "summarily rejected" Clinton's advice, it "struck a blow at the heart of this administration's foreign policy. They act without considering the consequences just as they recently did when they issued an ultimatum to Israel and were compelled to backtrack. If nothing else, the Pakistani nuclear test is a loss of face. The argument that the Pakistanis were ultimately swayed by domestic compulsions is inherently shallow. Sharif was waiting to see what we would give them."

A diplomatic observer called it a "bitter defeat" when Pakistan ignored Clinton's "private phone calls and his appeal for restraint. In the end, the president had no clout in trying to persuade Pakistan against following India's lead. It is a reality check, a lesson in the limits of power and the limits of US influence around the world, as well as US ability to influence global decisions since the end of the Cold War."

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At a White House briefing, spokesperson Mike McCurry acknowledged as much. "The US, despite all of its wealth and its might, cannot control every event, every place in the world, particularly in a place where, for five decades now, governments have fought wars and peoples have lived with incredible tension," he said.

Despite India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, the US is not prepared to recognise either country as a nuclear weapon state and treat them as such in the various international treaties. Referring to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Talbott said: "We don't think it is wise to get into the business of amending this treaty."

However, former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger said on CNN that it wasn't Clinton's failure and blamed the US Congress for meddling in foreign policy. Said he: "Here we have the president saddled with having to impose sanctions on both countries, which seems to me a very ineffective means for him to be able to deal with either country." But Paul L. Leventhal, president of the non-government Nuclear Control Institute, accused the administration of "a colossal foreign policy failure".

An administration source told Outlook that the Pakistani tests came less than seven hours after Clinton phoned Sharif, "and all but begged him not to detonate a weapon." He described the talk as "anguished...Clinton did everything he could but the Pakistanis were not convinced."

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Dr Gideon Rose, a non-proliferation expert at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York, sees the nuclear tests as both a failure and a success for the administration. "The outcome in both cases was obviously not what the administration wanted.But the prime villains in this situation are the Vajpayee government and the US Congress. Both the Clinton administration and the Pakistani government, in my opinion, had little choice but to do what they have done, given their domestic political situations."

Ramesh Ravella, president of a Virginia-based software company who frequently publishes letters to the editor on policy issues in the US press, said: "In a larger sense, Pakistan's nuclear test underscores the folly of American foreign policy vis-avis China. For well over a decade, China has been exporting missile and nuclear technology to Pakistan and the US did nothing to stop it. The real danger now is that countries like Iran, Iraq and Libya may buy nuclear technology from cash-starved, sanctions-ridden Pakistan." A point that is worrying Israel. "Imagine how unstable the world will be if Iran were to detonate a nuclear device," said prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu.

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As for the future course of action, McCurry said the US would push for India and Pakistan to "sign the CTBT without condition, to join the discussions in Geneva for a cut-off of fissile material production, and to refrain from any actions that would suggest deployment or weaponisation of ballistic missiles." He denied that there would be any revamping of the existing "non-proliferation architecture". Even if India and Pakistan did not sign the CTBT, he said, there were "other ways that you can ensure compliance. Like the way we monitor compliance of the North Korea agreement that they made in Geneva in 1994." So, all may not be lost.

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