Opinion

Bull's Eye

What is the future of the Congress government? One view is the government will last five years. During this period Rahul Gandhi will become the nation's ...

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Bull's Eye
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What is the future of the Congress government? One view is the government will last five years. During this period Rahul Gandhi will become the nation's new icon. The Congress will continue then for decades. Could be.

But there is also another view. The government still looks unsettled. The PM is subject to remote control. The contemplated induction of a powerful political secretary could compound his problems. Some ministers are arrogant. Others are loose cannons. The government could trip any time.

The Congress therefore should focus on some uncomfortable truths. The poll mandate was not for the Congress. It was against the BJP. It was negative mainly for one reason: the ugly communalism unleashed by sections of the Sangh parivar. However farcical the hype about India Shining, however strenuous the Left formulations about rural India, the results show communalism was the prime cause of the BJP defeat. Naveen Patnaik's clean image helped his party win in Orissa. But the scarce presence of Muslim voters also helped. It was the unprecedented, purposive nationwide voting by Muslims in pursuit of a single aim—to defeat the NDA candidates at all costs—that caused the debacle.

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Now events can take a curious turn. Vajpayee deliberately sparked the controversy about Narendra Modi within his party. Modi's future was already uncertain. His MLAs are rebellious. And Vajpayee has linked him to the Gujarat riots. The BJP's parliamentary board seemingly snubbed Vajpayee by giving Modi a reprieve. The Sangh parivar appears to be divided between the RSS and Vajpayee. This might cheer the Congress. Should it? The weaker Vajpayee appears to be within the BJP, the stronger he becomes outside it.

The arithmetic of MPs is dangerous. The NDA adds up to 189 MPs. Mulayam Singh Yadav, Chandra Shekhar and the AGP account for 39, making a total of 228. Karunanidhi's alliance and Sharad Pawar account for 34 MPs. The Telangana group has 5, Deve Gowda 3, Ajit Singh 3. That makes a total of 273, a bare majority. There are independents too.

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Karunanidhi dislikes the BJP but has a personal rapport with Vajpayee. Pawar's relationship with the Congress remains uneasy. Deve Gowda's natural ally in Karnataka would be a BJP led by Vajpayee that could instal a JD(S) government. Ajit Singh originally was Mulayam Singh's poll ally.

The Modi affair could wipe the communal taint off Vajpayee. What if 84 non-NDA MPs accept him as PM but insist on keeping the rest of the BJP outside government? Will the BJP choose five years of Congress rule or an NDA government supported from outside? Think.

(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)

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