National

Beware The Smiles Of March

Jayalalitha puts a question mark over the longevity of a BJP government

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Beware The Smiles Of March
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"The BJP leadership treated us like second-class citizens." —Jayalalitha in Chennai on March 14

IT was the BJP’s worst nightmare come true. After its assiduously negotiatedelectoral alliances took it to the threshold of power, it was being held to ransom byAIADMK chief J. Jayalalitha even before its government could be sworn in. So much so thateven her apparent climbdown on giving a letter of support—with all its attendantbluster—has left the BJP leadership in a bit of a quandary.

The initial snub was administered by Jayalalitha by making the BJPleadership wait for nearly three days for her letter of support. When it was finally senton March 14, at the last possible moment, it went straight to President K.R. Narayanan,with the BJP leadership at the receiving end of only the sharpest criticism and astrongly-worded attack questioning both its attitude and intention.

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This was so despite Atal Behari Vajpayee having tried to seize thepolitical advantage and what is left of the moral high-ground in the currentscenario—by giving Narayanan evidence of the support of just 240 MPs on March 12, hehad effectively called her bluff and forced her hand. The upshot: unless the presidenttakes a bleak view of the shenanigans and name-calling that preceded the submission of theletters of support by the BJP’s "allies" in Tamil Nadu, Vajpayee is boundto be sworn in as prime minister sooner rather than later.

It is, perhaps, symbolic of the state of the alliance that at the endof a 72-hour wait on Saturday afternoon, it was the BJP’s bete noire and Janata Partychief Subramanian Swamy who led a group of the party’s Tamil Nadu allies to thePresident to submit the letter announcing ‘outside’ support. But given thenumbers game in the 12th Lok Sabha, the matter is far from resolved—notwithstandingJayalalitha’s affirmation of support of 27 MPs to the BJP in the "nationalinterest" because she "did not want to be a hurdle in governmentformation".

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 This was more than evident from the reaction of BJP presidentL.K. Advani, who interrupted his meeting with senior BJP leaders and alliance partners atVajpayee’s residence on hearing of Jayalalitha’s decision. He told reportersthat he was "gratified that Ms Jayalalitha has announced her support and hopeful thatall hurdles would be overcome by addressing her concerns though not bowing to anyconditions. But we are not staking any claim. Let the invitation come from the presidentas he has initiated the process of government formation."

CLEARLY, the BJP leadership, more than aware of Murphy’s law, is advancing withcaution. As Advani told Outlook: "We are aware of the fact that those opposing uswould like us to form the government and then attempt to bring it down." TheBJP’s central leadership is palpably apprehensive of the Jayalalitha-Swamy duo’snext move. Indeed, nobody is willing to put money on their continued support during aprospective motion of no-confidence against the BJP.

But for now the AIADMK alliance’s choices are limited. SoniaGandhi’s takeover as Congress president and the accompanying acrimony in her partyhave made the Congress a less attractive alternative. Besides, the DMK-TMC combine isstill an integral part of the United Front, whose support is crucial to any Congress-ledgovernment. And as a BJP general secretary notes, "Once a government is formed,incumbency offers many advantages." An attempt to muster up numbers in Parliament andthe threat of dissolution, which no sitting MP would want, among them.

Says a senior BJP leader: "It is understandable that Jayalalitha isletting off steam since she has had to make an inglorious climbdown in the face of ourresolve not to agree to any conditions. Her anger, though, would be better directed atthose who wanted plum positions in the Union cabinet and obviously misled her intobelieving that we were prepared to make any sacrifices to achieve power."

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Still, the AIADMK’s aggressive posturing has put a question mark overa BJP coalition’s longevity. Jayalalitha’s decision to call back all her MPs toChennai and her announcement that she would not attend Vaypayee’s swearing-inceremony have already set off warning bells. But neither the BJP nor its allies can affordto be seen as not trying to form a government after getting so close. That is why theparty has deftly thrown the ball into the president’s court, "without agreeingto any conditions and thereby keeping our image intact".

The mood among BJP leaders in Chennai is less conciliatory. Says one ofthe senior-most leaders in the BJP’s Tamil Nadu unit: "Never before were wehumiliated like this. Even Mayawati treated us with much more respect. If this isrealpolitik, then most of us may have either to transform ourselves fully or opt forRSS-related social work."

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HE is equally clear about the dilemma before his party: "Idon’t have an honest answer to the question whether she will support us during theconfidence vote. But our problem is, we can not reject Jayalalitha’s support becausewe don’t have the numbers. And we can’t accept her because she has castaspersions on Advani and Vajpayee. What will stop her from getting up one fine morning andpulling down a Vajpayee-led government just because, say, George Fernandes addresses aninternational socialist congress or S. Gurumurthy says something pungent aboutcorruption!" It is significant, however, that the AIADMK is not as solidly behindJayalalitha as is made out. Some party leaders concede that Jayalalitha has bent overbackwards for Cabinet positions for Swamy and V. Ramamurthy to get out of the corruptioncases against her "at the cost of the party cadre".

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But at the national level, while her ‘conditions’ have beenrejected, her ‘concerns’ have been taken into account to give her a face-savingsop. BJP sources said Advani had conveyed to Jayalalitha that the proposed alliance’s"national agenda" would address her "concerns about a package for TamilNadu wherever possible". Accordingly, it was announced on March 14 that the finaldraft of the agenda had been delayed to incorporate the AIADMK’s suggestions. Amongthe issues under discussion:

  •  The final draft will contain a commitment to explore all legal and constitutional means to allow more reservations for Tamil Nadu (she has demanded 69 per cent and asked that this power be transferred to the state list). This may be linked to an over-all examination of the demand from other southern states like Karnataka which too want over 70 per cent reservations.

  •  Thirty-three per cent reservation for women in legislatures though a quota for OBC women could be somewhat problematic.
  •  On the Cauvery waters dispute, the formulation of "an appropriate mechanism", the final wording for which is open to discussion. This could also be applied to other intra-state disputes such as the one on Chandigarh between Haryana and Punjab.

  •  While raising the height of the Periyar dam "can be looked into", the demand for Tamil to be declared an official language is considered impractical but it may be mentioned that Tamil, like other Indian languages, is a "national language".

Even so, this may well be the beginning, not the end, of the BJP’stroubles. Swamy and Jayalalitha are not known for their capacity to forgive and forget. Infact, Vajpayee was more than aware that he was dealing with an unpredictable ally evenbefore the alliance was struck. During the BJP’s national executive meet atBhubaneshwar a few months ago, the usually wordperfect leader was distinctly uncomfortablewhile trying to fend off questions relating to his party’s deal with the"corrupt" Jayalalitha on the one hand and criticism of Laloo Prasad Yadav on theother.

Later, addressing delegates at a private session, Vaj-payee reportedlyused an analogy from the Mahabharata to explain his predicament: "The momentYudhishtira took upon himself the responsibility of lying to Dronacharya during the battlethat Ashwatthama was dead, as that was the only way to prevent the triumph of evil overgood, the wheels of his chariot, that were always four inches above the ground, came tothe ground with a thud." What Vajpayee probably hadn’t bargained for was thatJayalalitha would prove to be the sort of ally who is not only difficult to defend butagainst whom the BJP would have to defend itself.

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