National

And Modi Gets A Better Chance...

...but he is advised not to overplay his hand

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And Modi Gets A Better Chance...
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It does not require the skills of an astrologer to foresee that the Gandhinagar temple massacre is a virtual "political gift" for Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. BJP strategists know they have got a break in Gujarat. Senior BJP leader Kalraj Mishra says that after the temple incident "naturally, everyone will now unite behind Modi". Party general-secretary Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi jokes that "it is certain that this incident will not benefit the Congress". The BJP's national treasurer Ram Das Agarwal says: "We don't count electoral loss and gain over corpses. Political assessments will be made after some days." Still, off the record, BJP leaders concede that such an incident "will naturally increase support for the strong Hindutva line taken by the party in Gujarat".

The only anxiety that party managers have is that given his inclinations, Modi may overplay his hand. Which is why as soon as New Delhi got news of the attack, several phone calls were made to Modi. Deputy prime minister L.K. Advani, party president Venkaiah Naidu and BJP general-secretary Arun Jaitley all told Modi to take every possible step to avoid an outbreak of communal violence and to be restrained in his public utterances.

The assessment is that the state is just too exhausted to take another bout of communal mayhem. As RSS joint spokesperson Ram Madhav puts it, "If there is more violence, it could even backfire on Modi." Naidu admits that both Vajpayee and Advani have told Modi very strongly that there should be no retaliatory violence. Given the Election Commission's tough stance on Gujarat, the party is taking every precaution to see that the polls are not postponed beyond early December.

It is Advani who has categorically laid down the party line that the attack was carried out by "outsiders at the behest of Pakistan" and is part of "a larger conspiracy to destabilise our country". At a closed-door meeting of senior BJP office-bearers and ministers on September 27, Advani said the two terrorists "did not look like local Gujaratis".

But while the BJP plays the 'responsible' senior partner, other wings of the parivar are openly abusing Indian Muslims. The VHP's Surendra Jain went so far as to say that the "majority of Indian Muslims support the terrorists and terrorism can't be eliminated till we do something about this".

For the record, the RSS has stopped short of blaming Muslims and is going along with the line of this being a "diabolical Pakistani plot". But the incident has given the cadres a chance to point fingers at the minority community. Says Madhav: "We have to admit that jehad, bringing glory to Islam, can also be a motivating factor."

Sarsanghchalak K. Sudarshan puts it clearly: "On the one hand, the mullah-maulvi leadership of the Muslim community (in India) never tires in their proclamations that Islam is a religion of peace and brotherhood. But they owe a responsibility to explain what is there in Islam that instigates terrorists to indulge in such barbarous acts in the name of bringing greater glory to their religion and propels them to kill and die. Protecting the interests of Pakistan alone can't be the motivation for people indulging in suicide attacks."

Though the different wings of the parivar may appear to be striking somewhat different notes, it's part of the same music. A tried and tested parivar strategy, this time around the prize is Gujarat, a make or break election for the BJP. The attack hasn't brought the two communities together and as a senior BJP office-bearer says, "In the hearts and minds of the people, this attack will only increase suspicion between the communities." So though the top leadership will refrain from taking provocative positions, the cadres will orchestrate a whisper campaign.Meanwhile, Modi can be expected to make much of ensuring peace after the incident. He will also link this up to his old theme of wounded Gujarati pride.

The Congress knows it has suffered a huge setback. A senior Congress leader admits, "Our man Vaghela has been trying. And it will get harder for him now." Says veteran Congressman Natwar Singh, "Modi is the villain of the piece. He is responsible for what has happened now. He created conditions where such an act could take place."

Perhaps. The two young men who carried out the murderous attack did after all carry letters on their bodies claiming they were doing so in retaliation against the Gujarat riots. But if their aim was to really get even with the perpetrators of the Gujarat massacre, then they failed miserably. By shedding the blood of innocents, they have only strengthened the hands of a man seen as the biggest enemy of the minority community in Gujarat.

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