National

All’s Fair In Love & Bihar

Election in Bihar is never without colour. Will it be more than a pinch of saffron for Nitish?

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All’s Fair In Love & Bihar
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Contrary to the popular proverb, public memory in Bihar is not really short. Not by a long chalk. People who do not keep this cultural habit in mind do so at their own peril. If any evidence was required, it was on offer at an election meeting in Tekari, 40 km from Gaya, last fortnight. Photographs of Abhay Kushwaha, the Janata Dal (United) candidate and a Koeri, shaking a leg with a pole dancer had just gone viral. They were on Whatsapp, reported extensively in local newspapers and covered prominently by regional news channels. But the crowd that had gathered at Tekari to listen to Nitish Kumar’s poll pitch seemed curiously unaffected.

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The photograph was an old one, says Silouli Yadav, a clerk in an unaided college. And taken at a wedding in the house of current NDA candidate Anil Kumar, the sitting MLA and former minister from the powerful Bhumihar caste who is contesting on a Hindustani Awam Morcha ticket. Anil Kumar too had danced on that occasion, Silouli points out mockingly, but he was edited out of the frame in the clip doing the rounds.

Welcome to election time in Bihar.

The clips, if anything, appear to have worked against Anil Kumar, reminding people of his many sins of omission and commission. People recall, for instance, how he had grabbed a plot of land meant for a park to build a house, and how days after he visited a school set up by the ‘Tekari raj’ and inspected a Mughal-era manuscript, the priceless document apparently disappeared. No one said it in so many words, but the insinuation was that Anil Kumar had a role in it.

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It’s also fun times, with people entertaining themselves at the cost of politicians and parties. A group of men bre­ak into peals of derisive lau­ghter while pointing at bicycles carrying what people here refer to as ‘Nitish Nis­chay’ (Nitish det­ermined to deliver). “Budbak samajhta hai sabko (he thinks everyone is a fool).” They are especially tickled by the chief minister’s promise to build a toilet in every home. “He should have first built the toilets and then asked for the votes,” says one of the merry men.

Nitish isn’t the only one at the receiving end. Narendra Modi’s decision to address political meetings at even ‘block headquarters’ like Makhdumpur elicit derisive laughter. What kind of prime minister runs from one gali to another, asks someone. “The maharaja of Tekari too had contested an election and had run from one gali to another,” recalls his companion. “But he did not get votes.”

Competitive populism too has bec­ome the butt of jokes. When the BJP in its manifesto ann­ounced that it would give free scooties every year to 5,000 meritorious girls passing the Class X examination, the irrepressible Laloo Prasad Yadav wondered why other BJP-ruled states had not implemented it yet. Others wondered how the girls would afford to pay for the fuel, forcing BJP leaders to declare that the fuel too would be provided by the state government. But then people began asking how 16-year-old girls would get a driving licence!

Journalists just back from Bhagalpur and Banka recall hearing people say that it’s not politicians alone who can fool people; people too can fool politicians and parties. “Hum bhi jhansa de sakte hain aur is baar hum denge bhi (We too can make fools of politicians and sure will this time)” was one of the popular refrains they claim to have heard. Clea­rly, you cannot take voters in Bihar for granted.

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On the other hand, certain degrees of caste consolidation seem to be working in favour of the Nitish-Laloo combine. It’s evident when a medical representative in Patna confides that he has taken the day off to go to Masaurhi to show solidarity with the JD(U) candidate filing her nomination. “I had to be there because by staying away I would have weakened our community,” he tells me, refusing to be drawn into the visiting journalist’s favourite pastime of deciph­ering which way the wind might be blowing.

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There are enough paradoxes, of course. In 1989, the Yadavs and Gangotas of Bhagalpur were at the forefront of the rioting that took over 1,200 lives, most of them Muslim. A quarter century later, all three communities in the region where polling is taking place in the first phase appear united against the NDA. Which unity explains why the state has been able to avoid a major communal violence post-’89. Other Backward Clas­ses (OBCs) and the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCS), explains an observer, would normally execute riots while the elite castes would be involved in the planning. But acts of provocation have not worked so far because of the indifference of the executioners, he adds.

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The EBCS—Dhanuks, Beldars, Kahars, etc—are expected to tilt the scales in several constituencies. And while Jitan Ram Manjhi has emerged as a leader of these disparate castes by default, observers also take note of the fact that it was Nitish Kumar who gave them separate reservations in pan­chayats. The EBCS were virtually leaderless till 2014 when they threw in their lot with Narendra Modi who was projected as their leader. Pundits believe they will once again weigh in with the NDA, giving Manjhi some clout as king-maker. But will they behave the way they did last time? The jury is still out.

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Similarly, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, which has six MPs in the Lok Sabha and is contesting as many as 42 assembly seats, would be betting on winning between 25 and 30 seats in the best-case scenario. But can Modi replicate the wave he generated in the general election? On the ground, one does not see any evidence so far. But with the BJP having decided to launch a high-risk Modi blitzkrieg, much will depend on his ability to whip up another surge of enthusiasm for his dream-peddling.

However, the BJP’s faith in the Facebook-friendly generation may not be entirely misplaced. The party certainly believes the youth, besides Modi, is its trumpcard. A large section of the youth born after 1989, when Laloo Yadav became chief minister of the state, do not relate to caste identities. A young man in faded bermudas near Parsa Bazaar in Masaurhi echoes their sentiment. “If we keep harping on caste and vote on caste lines, there will be no vikas,” he says in a matter-of-fact tone. The mass hysteria in favour of Modi that one saw in 2014 is missing, he agrees, but a large section of the youth, he claims, still believes in Modi and think he should be given more time to deliver.

But then, as always, there is a counter-narrative. A young man sipping fruit juice opposite the Jehanabad railway station wonders, “How is it that before the 2014 general election Modi kept harping that he hailed from an EBC? And why then is he now calling upon people to rise above caste?”

Appearances in the state at election time have always been deceptive. Wit­ness a roadside scene near Jehana­bad. A group of people intently watch a video van of the ‘grand alliance’, listening quietly to speeches of Nitish Kumar, Laloo Yadav and Sonia Gandhi. So, are they all JD(U) supporters? Nah, says a young man. This village would vote for NDA’s rebel candidate Gubbara Das. No wry smile, no knowing wink and one is left wondering how indeed people would vote on October 16. If the fact of Laloo, Nitish and Sonia addressing separate meetings is being cited as proof of disunity, as also the fact that Nitish is talking development, Laloo social justice and the Congress president is bringing up the failures of the Modi government, others see it as part of conscious strategy.

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As far as the BJP is concerned, it’s difficult to ascertain how much the statements of BJP MPs like former home secretary R.K. Singh and MLAs alleging party nominations having been sold have hurt prospects, but on paper the NDA appears more vulnerable on account of the rebels.  

While the Laloo-Nitish duo has matched the NDA so far in competitive populism and the two sides seem to be even in the slanging match, the NDA is way ahead in terms of spending power and resources, and in getting favourable reviews in the media. Indeed, if elections are going to be a function of resources, rhetoric and organisational skill, the NDA may well be home and dry. But will it quite work out the way it wants?

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“Our budget constraint is such that we are forced to count our pennies,” ack­nowledges an election manager of JD(U) in Patna. If he is to be believed, the party is hard put to decide whether it can afford to spend Rs 50 or just Rs 30 for providing lunch to volunteers. The NDA, on the other hand, faces no such resource crunch. “They are outspending us by a ratio of 1:50,” he says.

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Amit Shah at a worker’s rally in Supaul

Chinks In The BJP Armour

  • Overexposure of the PM: Revised strategy of carpet-bombing the state with PM’s rallies appears desperate

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  • PM’s silence and patronising tone: At the rally in Banka, Modi made no mention of reservations, price rise and Dadri killing; his assertion that he should not perhaps send even a rupee to the state govt because it may not be able to spend it or might decide to send it back out of ‘arrogance’ did not go down well
  • No CM from elite castes: Arun Jaitley and Giriraj Singh assert that if NDA wins, CM will be either a Yadav or an EBC; state leaders like C.P. Thakur say the parliamentary committee will decide

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  • Urban areas skewing perception: Surveys may indicate NDA ahead in voteshare even before the first phase of polling, but urban areas constitute only 12 per cent of the state; there aren’t more than 20 constituencies which are urban or semi-urban in nature. This could be skewing perception as in 1995.
  • Shadow of Mohan Bhagwat: The RSS chief’s statement that it was time to review caste-based reservations and the PM’s silence on the subject is a  talking point among people
  • Relentless attack on Laloo uniting Yadavs: While the BJP has fielded 22 Yadavs, the relentless, multi-pronged attack on the RJD leader appears to be uniting Yadavs behind him

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  • Suspicion of the Election Commission: The EC’s decision to abandon the 60:40 ratio between central paramilitary forces and state police, its decision not to seek panels of officials from the state govt and its letting off lightly of West Bengal BJP leader Joy Banerjee has invited charge that EC is now under BJP control.

By Uttam Sengupta in Patna, Jehanabad & Gaya

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