National

A Fast Game Of Rounders

As industrial growth slows, a sluggish AIADMK faces a confident but fractious DMK and an alliance looking formidable on paper

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A Fast Game Of Rounders
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Tamil Nadu is a foreign country: they do things differently there. People here might ask ‘Modi who?’ or ‘BJP what?’ on Anna Salai in downtown Chennai; Shahrukh Khan and Priyanka Chopra are far­­away figures, here Ajith and Tamannah Bhatia rule; no signage is in the national language except the sporadic Bharatiya Jeevan Beema; even a so-called state issue (take, for example, the soup Karti Chidambaram is in), is dismissed with a shrug. If cycles for girls can win elections in Bihar, here there is a buzz that Amma may announce free motorcycles; in Bihar, the loss to the exchequer due to prohibition is estimated at Rs 3,000 crore, in Tamil Nadu it would be as much as Rs 30,000 crore. In West Bengal, the month-old Narada sting, showing wads of currency notes of about Rs 3-5 lakhs being pushed into eager MLAs’ hands, is an election issue; here, Rs 10 crore seized in cash last week, allegedly meant for bribing voters, was on the front pages for two days. Here, everything—development, ambition, freebies, corruption, poverty, leaders’ cutouts—is Rajni-size.

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But is the unthinkable waiting to happen in Tamil Nadu? Its people are famed for ditching one party for another every five years (this is oft-quoted, but still incredible: AIADMK got 133 seats in 1984, two in the 1989 polls, it came back with 164 in 1991, was trounced to four seats in 1996, won 132 in 2001. Alternately, the DMK won 151 in 1989, was smashed to two in 1991, bounced back with 173 in 1996 and went down to 31 in 2001.) Are they indecisive this time? A few months ago, Jayalalitha looked invincible, but as voting day approaches, the fight seems to be tougher than it appeared.

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The Nandi in the room—for the first time ever, is there the possibility of a hung assembly in Tamil Nadu? The last-minute push has always been crucial in these parts, and parties are out with all guns blazing in this last-stage cajoling, but a clear wave is absent. “Yes, it is genuinely an election where we don’t know. There is talk of a hung assembly. But it has been said before—in 1989, when Congress leaders, including Mr Chidambaram, thought the Congress was going to give a tough fight, but the DMK crushed them,” says N. Ram, former editor-in-chief of The Hindu.

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But mention a fractured mandate and all parties in the fray laugh it off. “We will win 234 seats. Jayalalitha will lose in her own seat of R.K. Nagar,” says M.K. Stalin—heir-apparent to DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi—matter-of-factly early one morning in his sleek house in the leafy Chitaranjan Street in Alwarpet. Some analysts say if the party had announced him as the chief ministerial candidate, they would have got 20-25 seats more. “No, my father will be CM. He may be old but he is agile, he is conducting the election campaign like any youngster would,” Stalin says. But there are many power centres within DMK. Also, the family may have reconciled to Stalin as the next in line, but does he have the charisma, so important in Tamil politics, to sweep cadres and voters along?

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Iron Confidence

M.K. Stalin campaigns in Coimbatore

Photograph by PTI

He’s certainly trying his very best. His Namakku Naame (Us for ourselves) initiative last year, where he went around jogging or on ATBs, carefully dressed in jeans, sneakers and tees to connect with people, especia­lly the youth, who form 40 per cent of the electorate, had mixed results. He is now hitting the road seven to eight hours daily (he is even more tired today—he has been up till 3 am, watching son Udha­yanidhi Stalin’s new film Manithan on DVD). Stalin has been on the campaign trail for over a month now, doing at least three rallies in an attempt to visit all con­stituencies. His speeches address spe­­cific, local issues, like his party’s new manifesto, which has all the districts and their problems listed. It says, for instance, under Dindigul district, “Parp­palaru dam and lakes in Vadakadu panchayat will be desilted”.

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In My Family & Other Animals, Gerald Durrell’s mad professor friend, old Theodore, otherwise reticent, comes to life when he sees a seaplane. “Theodore, eyes narrowed, beard bristling, watched it with bated breath”. Indian voters’ fascination with helicopters at election time is something similar. The unwieldy machines land on the dusty girls’ college playground in Madhubani or on the newly harvested castor fields in Ankleshwar, and people have come rushing in for a breathless peek even as it hangs over their heads. No political rally is over till the leader-laden chopper has flown away, just a speck in the waning light.

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Like in Villupuram. As we drive from Chennai to Madurai (on roads as smooth as, well, Tamannah’s midriff) comes Villupuram, aflutter with AIADMK flags in preparation for a Jayalalitha rally. It is blazing hot and the chopper has kicked up an eye-stinging dust storm. But none of it deters the sea of people, waiting with devotional zeal for a darshanam of Amma. They are everywhere, precariously perched on scaffoldings, on wooden railings, on tree branches. The speakers blare a rousing song. Jayalalitha finally comes on to the stage, triggering hysteria. In short steps she walks to the single chair and a desk on the stage. With failing health, her oratorical skills have weakened but the grit in her voice is unmistakable. She starts her speech with a roster of her party’s achievements in the last five years and ends it with slamming the DMK. “Are you with me to defeat these liars?” she asks. The crowd roars a yes. Unlike Stalin’s, Jayalalitha’s rallies are mammoth affairs; some two lakh people are crammed in this one.

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Though Jayalalitha doesn’t mention prohibition directly, she has promised to enforce it in phases if she returns to power. Yet it is the biggest issue in these issue-less polls. “Earlier, the nearest liquor shop was three km away. Now there are two Tasmac shops within half a kilometer,” says Shanmugam, an elderly far­mer in Padalur village, near Pera­mbalur. “Many college, even school children, have taken to drinking. Earlier, they would at least take cover if they saw elders when sloshed. Now they walk openly before us.” It’s not only the women, most men too are angry with the growing alcoholism. But prohibition is easier promised to the masses than to enforce. For one, there is little proof that it works. But two, and more important for Tamil Nadu, the state gets close to Rs 30,000 crore as revenue from alcohol sales, a whopping one-third of its total revenues. The reason—licensed mini bars have been set up near Tasmac shops, they have been allowed to be open for longer hours, and the sheer increase in numbers, say observers, is because parties need this money, often to fund promised freebies.

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The DMK has been more categorical about making Tamil Nadu a dry state. How are they going to account for the revenue loss? “There are many ways to raise revenue,” says T.R. Baalu, senior leader and former cabinet minister. But his plans are disturbing. “There is a lot of scope for sand quarrying. Granite mining is also under-utilised. Right now these are worth about Rs 2,000 to Rs 5,000 crore and are controlled by one family. We will open it up, there is potential to get about Rs 50,000 crore from this area,” he says. But won’t it be an ecological disaster, with the courts having stopped quarrying and mining in many states? “That may be true for smaller states like Goa, not for Tamil Nadu,” Baalu insists. Many in the state, even in AIDMK strongholds, feel Amma is dithering on full prohibition. Her party is yet to spell out how the phased prohibition will work.

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There are other issues staring at Jay­alalitha. Joblessness is on the rise. The once-thriving textile industry of Tiruppur is badly hit. The automobiles and auto parts industry in Sriperumbadur, ‘India’s Detroit’, some say is heading the same way as the American city. A top industrialist says things have been difficult in the last five years, with corruption a major issue. Not that DMK rule was any better, but at that time the takings were spread out, one knew who to bribe for what work, which mostly got done. But now the bribes go into some central black hole, and there is nobody to go to if the work is not done. This, he says, is the reason many multinational auto companies are now shifting out of Tamil Nadu.

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The chief grouse about Jayalalitha among the business community is that she just doesn’t meet them. Take the long-standing demand by the sugar industry to free up the sale of ethanol, a byproduct. The Centre has fixed a quota for each state: the maximum Tamil Nadu can contribute to the national ethanol grid is 13 crore litres. But the state government allows the industry to sell a meagre 50 lakh litres, so the mills are left with excess ethanol. This makes them less profitable than those in Karnataka and Maharashtra. It’s a relatively small decision to increase the cap, but there is nobody to take it. “The bureaucrats and ministers are too scared to take decisions without checking with her. Obviously, she can’t be involved with every small issue. It’s a bit like the Modi government,” says an entrepreneur based in Chennai. Most of the industrialists didn’t want to be named for this story, fearing a backlash.

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Tamil Nadu’s growth rate has fallen from a galloping 12 per cent in the last five years and there is a slowdown across sectors. “The share of industry, particularly manufacturing, plays a significant role in the state economy and any slowdown in domestic demand or exports has had a significant effect. It is a demand slide story. Demand constraints, especially exports, has in particular hit the automobile and textile sector,” says Shashanka Bhide of the Madras Institute of Development Studies. When business is slow, the trickle-down effect of tough times in a certain industry can flow far. Janarthanan is the proprietor of Vasantham Hotel on the Dindigul-Tiruppur intersection, serving meals, snacks, tea and coffee, with a clientele of mostly bus and truck drivers. He has rented the premises at Rs 500 a day, plus he has to pay Rs 8,500 per month as panchayat tax. He has to make at least Rs 2,500 a day to keep the establishment going. But every month, he has been falling short, as fewer trucks run on this stretch now.

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Captain’s Gambit

Vijaykanth at an alliance conference in Chengalpattu

Photograph by PTI

The Jayalalitha government’s handling of the Chennai floods still rankles. Surprisingly, the hard fee­ling runs deep not just in Chennai. “The floods will be a major issue here,” says Selvi, a flower seller near the Meenakshi temple in Madurai. But the floods were in Chennai? “True, but if Amma can’t come out and meet the flood victims, what will she do if we are in some trouble tomorrow?”

“I am the king, not the kingmaker,” gro­wls ‘Captain’ Vijaykanth in mock filmi style, lying in his hotel room bed. We have been chasing Captain for two days. As we pass Siva­kasi, one of his managers tells us he is in Bell Hotel on Thi­­ruthangal Road. We land there around midday, and his chocolate brown Toyota Fortuner parked on the driveway confirms his presence. We go up to the reception and ask for Captain’s room number—“217,” says the man behind the counter, the only person in the empty lobby of the modest hotel, the grandest in Sivakasi. The second floor corridor is des­erted, we walk across and ring the bell. After the third ring a ble­ary-eyed Vijaykanth opens the door and quickly shuts it again. His minders come out of an adjoining room and politely ask us to leave, saying Captain is tired, unwell and resting. We persist, and after much cajoling, we are given an audience. “People are looking for a change, they are tired of these old parties of Tamil Nadu,” he says, adding that his alliance will win all 234 seats.

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He is right about people wanting a change, but whether his alliance is what they are looking for is debatable. Vijaykanth’s DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam) leads the rag-tag alliance of Vaiko’s MDMK, G.K. Vasan’s Tamil Manila Congress, Thirumavalavan’s VCK and the two Left parties, CPI(M) and CPI. Vijaykanth’s party is contesting in about a hundred seats; the others will fight in about twenty-five each. There was talk that he would go with the DMK, which may have made a strong combine but the deal failed, some say, because Captain wanted to be the chief ministerial candidate. He has been lampooned on social media for his slurring speech and wobbly walk, but if the hung verdict comes true, he could be important. But who would Vijaykanth go with, if a post-poll alliance becomes necessary? “That’s the difficult question,” says Jayanti Natarajan, veteran Tamil Nadu politician and former environment minister. “It will be tough for him to go with the DMK now, as his cadre feel Stalin’s men broke the DMDK and took away many of his leaders. Jayalalitha has humiliated and insulted him publicly, he can’t align with them. It will be interesting to see which way he swings.” Many political observers don’t give his alliance any chance.

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“There is a saying in Tamil, ‘odara bus-la thaan eruvanga’—people always catch the running bus. They will wait till the last minute and go with the party they feel has the momentum to win,” says Karumuttu Kannan, chairman, Thiagarajar College of Engineering in Madurai. Which bus might that be in Tamil Nadu in these polls?

By Satish Padmanabhan in Chennai, Madurai, Coimbatore

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