India submitted its long-term low emissions development strategy (LT-LEDS) at the UN Climate Conference (COP27) in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt on Monday. This document, along with the nationally determined contributions (NDC), constitutes a nation's climate action strategies. In the new document, India has repeated its contentious stance that coal will continue to play a predominant role in the country's power sector. This is in spite of the fact that India has already committed to become a net-zero carbon emitter by 2070.
It was a similar case when India submitted its last updated NDC on August 23. The document was rated as 'highly insufficient' by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent body that tracks and analyses 85% of global carbon emissions. CAT's report expressed concern over India's lack of clear policy regarding the phasing out of coal use in the energy sector.
Now, by submitting its long-term climate action plan, India has a joined a list of 56 nations who have submitted their LT-LEDS to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) so far. In this document, it has been mentioned that India's transition from fossil fuels will be undertaken in a just, smooth, sustainable and all-inclusive manner. However, without outlining any plans to decrease the power sector's reliance on coal, these are just empty words.
Can India Compromise On Coal?
Pralhad Joshi, India's Coal Minister, had said just last week that coal will continue to play an important role in India until at least 2040. The country's newly submitted LT-LEDS is a bold reiteration of this sentiment considering that developed nations are already in the process of phasing out their coal and have called other nations to do as well. According to R R Rashmi, Distinguished Fellow at The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), India need not be apologetic about their stance on coal.
The former Special Secretary in the Ministry of Environment says, "In absolute terms, even the US consumes more coal than India. None of the developed countries have so far attained net-zero status and phased out fossil fuels." He suggests development and deployment of green hydrogen as a viable long-term solution for India in phasing out coal.
From a global perspective, emerging economies like India present a big challenge in the process of transitioning away from coal. "A key challenge ahead is to achieve such transitions in fast‐growing emerging market and developing economies such as India and Indonesia, where demand for electricity causes generation from coal to increase until the early 2030s," says the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Coal in Net Zero Transitions report published this year.
Sandeep Pai, Senior Associate of Energy Security at Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argues that India's huge size and growing energy demands are key factors when discussing a transition process away from coal. He also points out the geopolitics behind the call for phasing out coal as it will mostly hurt middle-income and low-income nations.
Pai agrees with Rashmi that India is not ready to phase out coal because the country has not even reached the peak of its coal consumption. "Even if additional power can be generated from renewable sources, the current energy system cannot be destroyed overnight," he adds.
In 2021, India had consumed 1,053 metric tonnes of coal which was an all-time high and the largest amount consumed in a single year by any country other than China. Earlier this year, the IEA said in a note that India's demand for coal has been going strong and estimated a 7 per cent rise for the whole year.
Coal is not just important in power-generation but also plays a significant role in cement and steel industries. Pai suggests that removing the carbon-dependency of power sector might be relatively easier as opposed to doing the same for steel industry. "We do not even know how to go about the decarbonisation of steel at a commercially viable scale," he says.
An estimate by NITI Aayog from 2021 had pegged India's demand for coal to peak by 2030. However, other analysts are sceptical about this. Regardless of whether the demand curve hits its peak in the 2030s or the 2040s, it will be followed by a stage of flattened curve before the levels actually start moving down to acceptable levels. With these projections in mind, it is fair to say that coal-fired power is here to stay for a while.
It is interesting to note that although many nations in the Global North have started phasing out coal, they have turned to natural gas as a substitute. This is not an option for India, as the country does not have domestic sources for natural gas. Even then, use of natural gas will only add to the ongoing depletion of non-renewable sources of energy.
Strong Position
At the ongoing COP27, India has argued that the demand for cutting down on coal should be expanded to include all fossil fuels. This would be fairer from a climate justice point of view, because the onus of cutting down on emissions should not be on developing nations. The richer nations, that have moved from coal to natural gas, are still powering through with the help of fossil fuels and India's position is an attempt to hold them accountable. Despite India's reliance on coal, this remains a strong position keeping in mind the historical responsibilities of climate change.
Indian energy sector's dependence on coal will continue for a while, and it is hard to argue against it. It is a result of the socioeconomic reality of the country. However, as the energy demands are rising, it becomes important to invest in green alternatives that will eventually help India become a net-zero emitter. Whether this will happen by 2070 remains to be seen.
