Calling for deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and accelerated action to adapt to climate change to avoid increasing loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, a new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data shows India as one of the most climate vulnerable countries.
The rising sea levels and variable monsoon patterns are two of the major concerns having caused 16% GDP loss since 1991. More than four million people were displaced due to disasters in India 2019.
The report by the UN body says that about 35 million people will be at risk due to annual coastal flooding by the middle of the century, and the number can go up to 45-50 million by the end of the century. The risk is getting higher for coastal cities like Mumbai. The sea level damages in Mumbai alone by 2050 are pegged $49-50 billion and could increase up to three-fold by 2070, as per the report.
The report displays mild confidence in forecasting longer and more frequent heat waves. South Asia expects to see higher maximum wet bulb temperature, which can prove to be fatal, than global averages. Bhubaneswar, Chennai, Mumbai, Indore and Ahmedabad are at high risk of wet-bulb temperature rise. The most severely affected by the end of the century will include Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab.
Changing monsoon patterns will adversely affect farming and fishing sectors, which together have around 20 per cent share in India’s GDP. Rice production can dip by 10 to 30 per cent and maize production by 25 to 70 per cent due to these conditions. Threats to Asia’s rice-producing countries, like India, are also likely to come from pests like the golden apple snail, which will accompany predicted temperature increase by 2080, notes the report.
Fishery and food for coastal communities will suffer due to big decreases in potential catch of two commercial species of Hilsa Shad and Bombay Duck in the Bay of Bengal. About two-thirds of the commercially important species of the Indian marine fisheries have been already found to be impacted by climate change and other human induced factors, says the report.
Climate change would affect water sources in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan ranges, which can impact the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. There will be severe water scarcity challenges exacerbated by climate change in the international transboundary river basins of the Indus and the Ganges and the inter-state Sabarmati river basin in India by mid-21st Century. Increased frequency of flood events threatens the Ganges-Brahmaputra region, which can impact river channel systems, according to the report.
Other challenges in South Asia are posed by the shifting boundaries of river channels, elaborates the report. “The major floods on the Indus have altered the river’s course in Pakistan, moving it closer to the Indian district of Kutch. In the eastern tributary of Ganges system, the alluvial fan of the Koshi river basin has shifted to more than 113 km to the west in past two centuries which may be due to heavy sediment load from the Himalayan rivers.”
The report recommends pursuing climate-resilient development pathways, including options like “climate smart agriculture, ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction, investing in urban blue-green infrastructure, adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development goals”.
The IPCC is a UN body mandated to look into the science of climate change. The new report was the second part of its Sixth Assessment Report. The first part was released earlier.
