R Jagannathan in the DNA sticks his neck out:
Where there is confusion, the voter looks for clarity. The really big question is about Raj Thackeray. Will his MNS eat into Sena-BJP votes the way it did in the Lok Sabha elections? The answer to this will decide whether the combine will win or lose. My personal hunch is that the Raj vs Uddhav battle is not happening this time; it will happen only after the election. Uddhav has pitched this battle as Bal Thackeray vs Raj and the rest, and in this battle it is not certain that Raj will have the upper hand.
On balance, this election is the Sena-BJP's to lose. Unlike the MNS, it is a serious
contender for power, and has a strong anti-incumbency vote to harvest. If it doesn't goof up somewhere, it has a clear chance this time.
Read the full piece at DNA: Tiger Tales