May 29, 2020
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What Will The Prez Do If BJP Is The Single Largest Party?

Srikant Sambrani in the Business Standard:

As with all others writing on the subject, I see no combination crossing the magic number of 273 seats, which is no surprise at all. Where my analysis differs from others is that while I see the BJP at the same number as in 2004 (138), I see a decline in the Congress strength to around 120, whereas the consensus figure is around 150. There are several reasons for this.

...the talk of the BJP losing its way, being leaderless, lost in factionalism, the Congress basking in the afterglow of five years in government led by a decent man, etc are all a mirror image of what appeared five years ago. We know what happened then.

This picture leaves the President, the Congress apparatchik handpicked for just such an eventuality, in a quandary: precedent demands that she call the largest single party first, which in this case would be the BJP. The opportunist seats from the “Allies” and “Others” columns (except the Left) would then gravitate towards the BJP...

Full article: Cry, the benighted country!
Graphic courtesy Business Standard

Incidentally, Rajat Sharma's India TV channel's poll is the only other poll so far that is showing BJP ahead of Congress:

  • Prima facie NDA (187) has minor edge over UPA (178); if UPA is minus SP (30), RJD/LJP (15)
  • On their own, BJP (144) is marginally ahead of Congress (133)
  • If after elections, SP (30), RJD/ LJP (15), PRP (6), PDP (1), Others (5) back UPA, UPA+ will have 57 more seats (235)
  • In other words, Fourth Front comprising SP, RJD/LJP, PRP, and PDP have 52 seats
  • Third Front (121) holds the key with BSP (26), TDP/TRS (14), Left (35), JDS (4), BJD (10), AIADMK 31, HJC 1)

More here

What Will The Prez Do If BJP Is The Single Largest Party?
outlookindia.com
1970-01-01T05:30:00+0530

Srikant Sambrani in the Business Standard:

As with all others writing on the subject, I see no combination crossing the magic number of 273 seats, which is no surprise at all. Where my analysis differs from others is that while I see the BJP at the same number as in 2004 (138), I see a decline in the Congress strength to around 120, whereas the consensus figure is around 150. There are several reasons for this.

...the talk of the BJP losing its way, being leaderless, lost in factionalism, the Congress basking in the afterglow of five years in government led by a decent man, etc are all a mirror image of what appeared five years ago. We know what happened then.

This picture leaves the President, the Congress apparatchik handpicked for just such an eventuality, in a quandary: precedent demands that she call the largest single party first, which in this case would be the BJP. The opportunist seats from the “Allies” and “Others” columns (except the Left) would then gravitate towards the BJP...

Full article: Cry, the benighted country!
Graphic courtesy Business Standard

Incidentally, Rajat Sharma's India TV channel's poll is the only other poll so far that is showing BJP ahead of Congress:

  • Prima facie NDA (187) has minor edge over UPA (178); if UPA is minus SP (30), RJD/LJP (15)
  • On their own, BJP (144) is marginally ahead of Congress (133)
  • If after elections, SP (30), RJD/ LJP (15), PRP (6), PDP (1), Others (5) back UPA, UPA+ will have 57 more seats (235)
  • In other words, Fourth Front comprising SP, RJD/LJP, PRP, and PDP have 52 seats
  • Third Front (121) holds the key with BSP (26), TDP/TRS (14), Left (35), JDS (4), BJD (10), AIADMK 31, HJC 1)

More here

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