For the fourth week running, the Reuters experts polled do not show any dramatic shifts yet, but the interesting change this week is that no one is predicting Pranab Mukherjee for PM anymore, and while Mulayam Singh continues to get one vote, Mayawati's popularity has become double to 2 out of 14. But as many as 11 continue to think that Manmohan Singh will be elected as the next PM again.
1) What will be a major election issue for voters?
- a) High food prices - 4 choices
- b) Economic slowdown - 3 choices
- c) Security - 2 choices
- d) Communal issues - 1 choice
* Two analysts were unsure about their choices and two were unavailable for comment.
2) How many seats do you think Congress and the BJP will win?
- Congress Average 139 (138) - Median 140 (140)
- BJP Average 129 (127) - Median 130 (130)
(There are 543 elected seats in parliament)
3) Assign percentages to the following scenarios
- a) A UPA-led government with communist support: Average 33 pct (33) Median 34 pct (38)
- b) A UPA-led government without communist support: Average 21 pct (21) Median 23 pct (23)
- c) An NDA-led government: Average 22 pct (23) Median 20 pct (24)
- d) A Third Front-led coalition: Average 24 pct (22) Median 20 (20 pct)
4) Who will be the next Prime Minister of India?
- Prime Minister Manmohan Singh - 11 choices
- Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee - 0
- Mayawati (Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister) - 2
- Mulayam Singh Yadav (Samajwadi party chief) - 1
- L.K. Advani (BJP leader) - 0
The poll does not aim to be scientific but to give readers a snapshot of how some of the leading India analysts are thinking.
Read the full story: Reuters poll sees food prices as major issue