The Economist's annual collection of predictions for the year ahead is out and it forecasts: Pakistan will be messy but stable (unless there is catastrophic violence—an important assassination or a terrorist attack in India), China will become the world’s second-largest economy but will need to learn to chill, Obama will have a lousy year, Japan will remain in its fiscal black hole, NATO may lose in Afghanistan, the UK would get a regime change, the only thing harder to sell than a newspaper will be a newspaper company, green engineers would be way cooler than MBAs and, on July 11th, the world will watch a proud team win the FIFA World Cup in South Africa. In between, India's factories will overtake its farms:
The monsoon once decided India’s economic fate. Now it only influences it. Agriculture’s share of India’s national output has dropped from 40% 30 years ago to 17% in 2009. Indeed, India’s economy is now on the cusp of an historic transition. In 2010 agriculture will account for a smaller share of GDP than manufacturing: India’s output of widgets will exceed its output of wheat, rice, cotton and the other fruits of the land. The factory will surpass the farm.