January 22, 2020
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The Asterisks Return On The Road To 272

Graphic Courtesy Deccan Chronicle

Ha! So you thought they were done with those bloody polls? All right, Arun Nehru's back of the envelope calculations are hardly a poll, but it's fun to return to speculation of this sort. No wonder, some four newspapers carry essentially the same column week after week. Here he is in the Deccan Chronicle:

There is a clear pattern emerging in 2009, as we see the SP/RJD/LJP declining in numbers in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. From their current numbers of 65 seats they can drop to 35-40 seats. The seats they lose will go to the BSP/Congress in Uttar Pradesh and to the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar.

The Left will drop from 65 seats to 35-40 seats and the gains will be for the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal and the Congress in Kerala. I feel that the trends are consolidating towards the Congress and the BJP in the future and it is just a matter of time when the BSP (vote share can be 10 per cent in the future) will consider it expedient to ally with either party for a strategic alliance.

Read the full piece here: Watch UP and Bihar for coalition trends

The Asterisks Return On The Road To 272
outlookindia.com
1970-01-01T05:30:00+0530

Graphic Courtesy Deccan Chronicle

Ha! So you thought they were done with those bloody polls? All right, Arun Nehru's back of the envelope calculations are hardly a poll, but it's fun to return to speculation of this sort. No wonder, some four newspapers carry essentially the same column week after week. Here he is in the Deccan Chronicle:

There is a clear pattern emerging in 2009, as we see the SP/RJD/LJP declining in numbers in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. From their current numbers of 65 seats they can drop to 35-40 seats. The seats they lose will go to the BSP/Congress in Uttar Pradesh and to the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar.

The Left will drop from 65 seats to 35-40 seats and the gains will be for the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal and the Congress in Kerala. I feel that the trends are consolidating towards the Congress and the BJP in the future and it is just a matter of time when the BSP (vote share can be 10 per cent in the future) will consider it expedient to ally with either party for a strategic alliance.

Read the full piece here: Watch UP and Bihar for coalition trends

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