Graphic Courtesy Deccan Chronicle
Ha! So you thought they were done with those bloody polls? All right, Arun Nehru's back of the envelope calculations are hardly a poll, but it's fun to return to speculation of this sort. No wonder, some four newspapers carry essentially the same column week after week. Here he is in the Deccan Chronicle:
There is a clear pattern emerging in 2009, as we see the SP/RJD/LJP declining in numbers in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. From their current numbers of 65 seats they can drop to 35-40 seats. The seats they lose will go to the BSP/Congress in Uttar Pradesh and to the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar.
The Left will drop from 65 seats to 35-40 seats and the gains will be for the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal and the Congress in Kerala. I feel that the trends are consolidating towards the Congress and the BJP in the future and it is just a matter of time when the BSP (vote share can be 10 per cent in the future) will consider it expedient to ally with either party for a strategic alliance.
Read the full piece here: Watch UP and Bihar for coalition trends