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Reuters Poll Sees Congress Coalition Losing Ground

The Reuter weekly poll of 14 leading analysts shows the Congress-led alliance losing ground over the last week amid coalition squabbles, though it is " still likely to win India's next general election".

Reuters surveyed analysts from a variety of backgrounds, including universities, pollsters and banks, on Monday and Tuesday. The poll does not aim to be scientific but to give readers a snapshot of how some of the leading India analysts are thinking.

The following are the results of their replies. Reuters will repeat this survey on a weekly basis each Tuesday. Last week's results are in brackets.

1) How many seats do you think Congress and the BJP will win?

CONGRESS Average 140 (144) - Median 140 (143)
BJP Average 129 (130) - Median 130 (130)
(There are 543 elected seats in parliament)

2) Assign percentages to the following scenarios:

a) A UPA-led government with communist support
Average 31 pct (32) Median 30 pct (30)

b) A UPA-led government without communist support
Average 25 pct (27) Median 25 pct (28)

c) An NDA-led government
Average 24 pct (23) Median 25 pct (25)

d) A Third Front-led coalition
Average 19 pct (18) Median 13 pct (10)

3) Who will be the next Prime Minister of India?

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh - 11 choices
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee - 1
Mayawati (Uttar Pradesh state leader) - 1
Mulayam Singh Yadav - 1 (Samajwadi party chief)
L.K. Advani (BJP leader) - 0

Read the full story here

The Reuter weekly poll of 14 leading analysts shows the Congress-led alliance losing ground over the last week amid coalition squabbles, though it is " still likely to win India's next general election".

Reuters surveyed analysts from a variety of backgrounds, including universities, pollsters and banks, on Monday and Tuesday. The poll does not aim to be scientific but to give readers a snapshot of how some of the leading India analysts are thinking.

The following are the results of their replies. Reuters will repeat this survey on a weekly basis each Tuesday. Last week's results are in brackets.

1) How many seats do you think Congress and the BJP will win?

CONGRESS Average 140 (144) - Median 140 (143)
BJP Average 129 (130) - Median 130 (130)
(There are 543 elected seats in parliament)

2) Assign percentages to the following scenarios:

a) A UPA-led government with communist support
Average 31 pct (32) Median 30 pct (30)

b) A UPA-led government without communist support
Average 25 pct (27) Median 25 pct (28)

c) An NDA-led government
Average 24 pct (23) Median 25 pct (25)

d) A Third Front-led coalition
Average 19 pct (18) Median 13 pct (10)

3) Who will be the next Prime Minister of India?

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh - 11 choices
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee - 1
Mayawati (Uttar Pradesh state leader) - 1
Mulayam Singh Yadav - 1 (Samajwadi party chief)
L.K. Advani (BJP leader) - 0

Read the full story here

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