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Tuesday, Oct 19, 2021
Outlook.com
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Predicting The Polls: CNN-IBN-CSDS Survey

Predicting The Polls: CNN-IBN-CSDS Survey
Predicting The Polls: CNN-IBN-CSDS Survey
outlookindia.com
1970-01-01T05:30:00+05:30

Graphic Courtesy, CNN-IBN

The poll-madness has begun. Never mind how horribly everyone got their poll-predictions wrong the last time around. With elections due in April/May, CNN-IBN-CSDS is first off the mark confirming a hung parliament. Its key findings are:

  • UPA, projected to get 36 per cent of the votes, is likely to end up anywhere between 215 and 235 seats. 
  • The NDA, which is predicted to get 29 per cent votes, will win 165 to 185 seats

Graphic courtesy, CNN-IBN

Another very key finding, once we take away the stats for allies, is that while the UPA is ahead, the Congress and the BJP are almost exactly where they were when results for the last Lok Sabha were announced. The difference in vote percentages is largely because of the allies lost by the BJP.

192 Seats in 'Toss-up' States

According to their findings, there are nine ‘toss-up’ states where the margins are so small that no survey can make a safe prediction. These are: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, Goa and Jharkhand -- out of which, the first three are the most crucial.

Read the detailed survey here

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