Monday, Sep 20, 2021
Outlook.com
Outlook.com

Monsoon Miseries

Monsoon Miseries
| File - PTI Photo
Monsoon Miseries
outlookindia.com
1970-01-01T05:30:00+05:30

It seems that India will receive deficient rainfall for a second consecutive year. In 2014, by mid-July, many parts of the country were hit by severe droughts, only to be followed by excessive rainfall and unprecedented floods in Kashmir. 

For 2015, IMD has forecast that the total rainfall may be 93% of normal and also there is 35% probability of deficient monsoon.

In a country, where farmers are already suffering due to crops damaged by unseasonal rain, a deficient monsoon is plain bad news.

A PTI report says:

Addressing a news conference, Harsh Vardhan, Union Minister for Earth Science, said the Monsoon would be 93 per cent of the Long Period Average which is below normal.

According to the IMD parameters, below 90 per cent is defined as deficient, 90-96 per cent is considered as below normal, 96-104 per cent as normal and above which is excess.

He, however, did not respond to whether the country is likely to face any "drought-like" condition.

"There is a 35 per cent probability for the monsoon to remain below normal while the probability to have a deficient rainfall is 33 per cent and 28 per cent to be normal. There is only one per cent possibility for the rainfall to be excess.

Professor Swaminathan, the father of India's Green Revolution tweeted:

On the implications of IMD's predictions, Manas Chakravarty writes in the Mint:

Over the years, agriculture has become a smaller part of the economy and its contribution to gross domestic product has fallen. But then, neither investment demand nor exports are doing particularly well at the moment and rural demand is depressed. Another poor monsoon will add to the burden.

Two poor monsoons in a row as well as the recent unseasonal rain will certainly pose a challenge to controlling inflation, while the lack of rural demand will affect consumption growth, pushing back the long-awaited economic recovery.

This inforgraphic from Hindustan Times shows the possible effect of El Nino on Indian monsoon:

A report by Reuters on the effects of El Nino says:

Bangladesh and its South Asian neighbours are expected to see below average rainfall in 2015 due to the impact of an El Nino weather pattern, which can bring on a dry spell in the region, a weather expert said on Wednesday.

In India, a strong El Nino could result in droughts during the monsoon season and hit crops from rice to sugar and cotton in the country which is one of the world's leading producers of these farm commodities.

Under the circumstances, Anil Padmanbhan asked the most pertinent question in his Mint blog: Don’t the weather gods like the NDA?

Advertisement

Outlook Newsletters

Advertisement

More from

Read More from Outlook

Congress Plays Dalit Card In Punjab, Charanjit Singh Channi To Take Oath As CM On Monday

Congress Plays Dalit Card In Punjab, Charanjit Singh Channi To Take Oath As CM On Monday

Charanjit Singh Channi appointed Chief Minister of Punjab; expected to tap 32 percent Dalit voters of Punjab in the upcoming 2022 assembly elections.

Saudi Foreign Minister In India: Riyadh As Concerned As New Delhi About Stabilising Afghanistan

Saudi Foreign Minister In India: Riyadh As Concerned As New Delhi About Stabilising Afghanistan

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar held talks with visiting Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud on Sunday.

IPL 2021: Gaikwad, Bowlers Help CSK Beat MI

IPL 2021: Gaikwad, Bowlers Help CSK Beat MI

Gaikwad batted through the innings to lift Chennai Super Kings from 7/3 to 156/6. Mumbai Indians could manage only 136/8.

Virat Kohli To Step Down As Royal Challengers Bangalore Captain After IPL

Virat Kohli To Step Down As Royal Challengers Bangalore Captain After IPL

The news came just a few days after Virat Kohli announced that he will step down as India's T20 captain after T20 World Cup.

Advertisement