Elections 2009: Who Will Win?

If the election schedule is here, can the poll-predictions be far behind? Former union minister and Congressman-turned-BJP strategist Arun Nehru has been regularly publishing his back-of-the-envelope calculations in the Pioneer. His predictions for 2004 LS elections were as highly off the mark as any other scientific opinion poll by reputed psephologists. This time around, he says, it won't be a dull election. As of today, he's predicting, Congress 149, BJP 135.

Tamil Nadu is a good example where the DMK, the AIADMK, the PMK and the MDMK can travel in several directions, both at the Centre and in the State. This will happen sooner rather than later as voter preferences become clear. The DMK has been in power for a decade at the Centre, both with the NDA and the UPA, and its extensive assets have led to a damaging family feud. As a result Ms J Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK are gaining ground with each passing day, and the ruling Congress cannot ignore this development.

Change is in the air and my gut feeling is that Ms Jayalalithaa and her allies will sweep the poll. The AIADMK, if it has the numbers, can travel in any direction, and the same holds true for the BSP, the SP, the TDP, the NCP, or for that matter any other regional party. Alliances and agreements will be flexible — with ideology taking a backseat — and will largely depend on numbers.

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Incidentally, the importance of Tamil Nadu results to these elections is being underlined by almost all. Mahesh Rangarajan also had a column today in the Mail Today making the same point: "Tamil Nadu and not UP holds the key to power".

Graphic courtesy The Pioneer

Tamil Nadu is a good example where the DMK, the AIADMK, the PMK and the MDMK can travel in several directions, both at the Centre and in the State. This will happen sooner rather than later as voter preferences become clear. The DMK has been in power for a decade at the Centre, both with the NDA and the UPA, and its extensive assets have led to a damaging family feud. As a result Ms J Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK are gaining ground with each passing day, and the ruling Congress cannot ignore this development.

Change is in the air and my gut feeling is that Ms Jayalalithaa and her allies will sweep the poll. The AIADMK, if it has the numbers, can travel in any direction, and the same holds true for the BSP, the SP, the TDP, the NCP, or for that matter any other regional party. Alliances and agreements will be flexible — with ideology taking a backseat — and will largely depend on numbers.

More Here

Graphic courtesy The Pioneer

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