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ABP News-Nielsen Op Poll: BJP 209, Cong 91; NDA 233, UPA 119

According to the latest pre-poll survey by ABP News-Nielsen if Lok Sabha elections are held today, a big surge for BJP from the last election is predicted, taking the seat count for the National Democratic Alliance that it leads to 233. That compares with 159 Lok Sabha seats for NDA in 2009.

The opinion poll has found that NDA is set to win 233 seats in the 543-seat parliament while the incumbent UPA-II government is projected to win a mere 119 seats.

According to the projection, BJP alone will get 209 (it won only 116 seats in 2009) seats. 

The Congress is projected to get only 91 (won 206 seats in 2009) seats--115 less than 2009 seat position in the Lower House.

Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP predicted to get around 4 seats in the 543-member House of Lok Sabha.

The non-UPA and non-NDA parties seem to be holding a key share of national vote bank, reveals the survey.

The poll forecast that the BJP would win the lion's share of the vote in many of the big states that typically decide the fate of the polls.

Vote Share

Seat Share

South 134       Total
Karnataka BJP 15 Cong 10 JD(S) 3 28
Kerala CPM 5 Cong 8 20
Tamil Nadu AIADMK 21 Cong 1 DMK 10 39
AP YSRC 17, AIMIM 1 Cong 9 TRS 7, TDP 7 Others 1 42
Goa BJP 1 Cong 1 2
     
East 142    
Bihar BJP 19, RJD 10, JDU 6, Congress 2, LJP 2, Others 1 40
Assam Cong 8, BJP 3, AGP 1, BPF 1, AUDF 1  14
WB AITC 28, CPM 7, CPI 2, AIFB 1,  RSP 1., BJP 1, Cong 2 42
Orissa BJD 17, BJP 2 Congress 2. 21
Jharkhand BJP 10, JMM 1, Cong 1, Others 2

14

West 116    
Maharashtra BJP 19, Cong 8, NCP 5, Shiv Sena 12,  MNS 1, Others 3 48
MP BJP 23, Cong 5, BSP 1 29
Gujarat BJP 21, Cong 5 26
Chhattisgarh BJP 9, Cong 2 11
North 151    
UP Cong + RLD = 11, BJP 38, BSP 17,  SP 12, AAP 1, Others 1 80
Uttarakhand: BJP 5 5
Rajasthan BJP  20, Cong 5 25
Punjab Cong 6, SAD 5, Cong 2 13
Delhi AAP 3, BJP 3, Cong 1 7
Haryana BJP 9, Cong 1 10
HP BJP 4 4
Chandigarh AAP 1 1
J&K UPA 3, BJP1, PDP 1, Others 1 6

NDA’s vote share percentage is seen at 32% while UPA’s is projected at 26%. Left has 5% while Others take around 37% overall.
Figure below displays the break-up of seats:

UPA 119: East 22 (142) North 27 (151), South 35 (134), West 25 (116)
NDA 233: East 37 (142), North 87 (151), South 21 (134), West 86 (116)
Left 23: East 14 (142), North 0 (151), South 9 (134), West 0 (116)
Others 170: East 59 (142), North 37 (151), South 69 (134), West 6 (116)

The Survey was conducted between March 9- March 16, 2014. More than 29,000 people across the country were interviewed for the poll.

In Uttar Pradesh, according to the poll, of the total 80 seats in UP, 11 are likely to go to the Congress-RLD combine, 38 to BJP, 17 to BSP, 12 to SP, 1 to AAP and 1 to Others.

According to the poll, Congress, on its own, is likely to win just 7 seats, compared to 21 in the 2009 elections. There is a downtrend from the previous opinion poll held in January, which projected 8 seats for the Congress. The vote share of the party has also dropped from 18.4% in 2009 to 13% in 2014.

BSP too seems to be on a downward trend, with number of seats for the party coming down from 20 in 2009 to 17 in the current survey. The party’s vote share is 23% Vote share of the ruling SP is 16% currently, the opinion poll has predicted. 

In 2009, the vote share of the party had been 23.5%. In terms of seats, the party looks low at 12 seats; in the previous election, SP had won 23 Lok Sabha seats. 

With barely a few months in existence, AAP has managed to gather 3% of the vote share in UP, but isn’t seen winning even a single seat, the poll has predicted. 

In keeping with the continuing trend in recent opinion polls, BJP has emerged as the largest party from the state, with 34% of the vote share, taking it to 38 seats. In the previous Lok Sabha elections, BJP had a vote share of 17.3% with 10 seats.

The Survey was conducted between March 9- March 16, 2014. More than 4,500 people across the country were interviewed for the poll.

 

Most Preferred Prime Minister

As per the ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll, Narendra Modi leads the polls for the position of Prime Minister of India, though his popularity is down to 54 per cent in March 2014, as compared to 57 per cent in February 2014. 

In West Bengal, though Narendra Modi has majority (39%) favouring him, if we take some of the Congress contenders together (Manmohan Singh+Sonia Gandhi+Rahul Gandhi) INC is also prefrred by 38% respondents. 

Similarly in Kerela, though Narendra Modi has 33% preference but together INC candidates have 47% preference 

(In BJP respondents are not getting divided and there is one clear candidate, but in INC there is divided preference).

Rahul Gandhi remains constant, and has been voted as the second choice for PM with 18 per cent and Arvind kejriwal bags only 3 per cent as PM.

 

Biggest Concern for Voters

As per the ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll, Inflation emerges as the major issue with 37 per cent. In February 2014, corruption was the major issue that was affecting people the most in day to day living:  

Price rise/ Inflation

37

Corruption

31

Unemployment

17

Others

1

DK/CS

14

Total

100

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