Time To Deliver

Barack Obama’s inauguration as the 44th president of the United States waswatched by a record number of people outside the country, hopeful that he wouldguide the world towards peace and stability. Euphoria created by the Obamafeel-good-factor will soon be sorely tested as the new administration confrontsthe thorny Bush legacy in Gaza, Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea. Obama musttransform US foreign policy from spurts of interventionist moves and short-termfixes to a well-thought out global approach that encourages long-termcooperation with others on many pressing issues.

The gushing headlines and random man-in-the-street interviews are deceptive,transitory snapshots of emotional moments. Temporarily disregarded amidpost-inauguration Obamamania are widespread pre-election doubts around the worldabout the new American president’s ability to effect meaningful change in USforeign policy.

Before the election, only a small minority of Egyptians, Jordanians andLebanese thought the next White House resident could make a difference in USforeign policy, according to the Pew Global Attitudes Survey. That is hardlyfertile ground for an Obama-led Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative.

Obama faces a similar credibility challenge in dealing with Afghanistan andPakistan. Last year only one in five Pakistanis thought replacing George Bushwould prove a change for the better in US foreign policy. And in 21 of 23countries Pew surveyed, a majority or plurality of those questioned wanted USand NATO troops out of Afghanistan as soon as possible.

Obama’s diplomatic test is no less daunting in Northeast Asia. The newadministration’s top regional foreign policy priority is likely to berestarting nuclear talks with North Korea. But the Japanese people are moreconcerned about the return of their citizens allegedly abducted by Pyongyangthan they are about North Korea having nuclear weapons, according to theJapanese cabinet office’s recent annual survey of Japanese public opinion onforeign affairs. And a majority of Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans told Pewthey doubt that a new US president will make much difference to American foreignpolicy.

The advent of a new administration in Washington provides a window ofopportunity for the United States to overcome these doubts and to re-inspirefaith in American leadership in the Middle East and in Southwest and NortheastAsia. To demonstrate to skeptics around the world that his election signals morethan a feel-good moment, Obama needs to make a series of significant gestures inhis first months in office.

The Middle East

Reestablish Washington’s image as an honest broker in the decades-oldArab-Israeli confrontation by being tough with Israel on almost any topic. Thesubstance is less important than the effect of being seen on the Arab street asdefying the Israeli lobby in Washington and taking the Arab side occasionally.Cairo, Amman and Damascus need this shift in public sentiment to give themdomestic political space to compromise with Israel in future negotiations.Obama’s appointment of former Senator George Mitchell as his special envoy toMiddle East is a first step. Mitchell has a reputation for fairness and balance.

Challenge regional Arab actors to put up or shut up by offering US support forthe Syrian-Israeli negotiations suggested by Turkey, the Hamas-Fatah talks thatEgypt has been trying to broker and the Arab-Israeli initiative proposed bySaudi Arabia.

Convince the Europeans, and possibly the Japanese and the Indians, to police theGaza-Egyptian border and the Gaza coastline to interdict weapons shipments. Anembargo will diminish Hamas’ ability to attack Israel and deny Israel anexcuse for reoccupying Gaza.

Open negotiations with Tehran

The generation-long US cutoff of diplomatic relations and economic embargohave failed. Washington stands alone. Europe, China, India and Japan needIranian energy and will not support a policy of continued isolation. Pursue USengagement through tourism, student exchanges, trade and investment. Accept thatTehran is going to have nuclear weapons and develop non-proliferation controls.Support a regional dialogue between Iran and its neighbors. But don’t be apushover. Demand quid pro quos from Tehran.

Southwest Asia

Reverse Obama’s bellicose campaign rhetoric about Afghanistan and signalWashington’s intention to eventually disengage. Afghanistan is a quagmire. Askthe British or the Russians. Most of America’s allies want out. Washingtoncannot expect more European troops to back up the GIs in Afghanistan. Sochallenge the Europeans and the Japanese to put their money where their mouthsare and boost their economic redevelopment assistance. Spend some of thebillions Washington will save drawing down forces in Iraq to provide education,health care and job opportunities for Afghanis. Publically warn Afghan PresidentHamid Karzai that America’s withdrawal timetable depends on his crackdown oncorruption. The more honestly and effectively he spends economic developmentassistance, the longer Americans will stay. And make it clear that Afghanisovereignty will not get in the way of the United States defending itself.Washington will strike back from the air and with special forces’ operationsif terrorist training camps reemerge in Afghanistan. Richard Holbrooke,Obama’s new special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, is a blunt-spokenrealist who can deliver this message loud and clear.

Focus on Pakistan as the long-term threat to regional stability because ofIslamabad’s inability to control its own territory, Pakistan’s nucleararsenal and the ever-present danger of war between Pakistan and India. Offer a90-day pause in US drone bombing of suspected terrorists living on Pakistaniterritory, which is alienating Pakistani public opinion, in return formeaningful Pakistani military action against terrorist operations. Challenge theEuropeans, Japanese and Chinese to counter the fundamentalists’ appeal bybuilding schools, clinics and factories to afford Pakistanis a better life. Andrestrain New Delhi. Whatever the provocation, war will only make conditions inPakistan worse. Pressure Islamabad to turn over suspected terrorists to Indianauthorities and launch back-channel efforts to reduce tensions in Kashmir.

Northwest Asia

Restart discussions with the North Koreans by sending an American team ofnon-governmental experts to Pyongyang to begin a dialogue on how to have moreeffective negotiations about the North Korean nuclear weapons program. TellTokyo that it is free to pursue its own diplomacy with Pyongyang about theabductees. But the nuclear talks with North Korea will eventually continue, withonly five parties if Japan cannot participate for domestic political reasons.Challenge Beijing to ratchet up its pressure on Pyongyang as a sign of Chinesewillingness to work constructively with the new US administration. And pass theUS-Korea Free Trade Agreement as a signal of continued US engagement in theregion.

There is a palpable, collective relief around the world that the Bush era isover. And the excitement that a young African-American has now become presidentof the United States is genuine. But Obama should not confuse the enthusiasm ofthe moment with support for American foreign policy in the long run. Rebuildingtrust in the United States requires Washington to break with the past.

No one expects Obama to resolve longstanding problems overnight. But his firstfew months in office are a time to set the tone for his foreign policy byoffering bold initiatives to address stalemated crises in hotspots around theworld. He will never have this opportunity again.

Bruce Stokes is the international columnist for the National Journal.Rights: © 2009 Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. YaleGlobalOnline