'There Will Be More Such Attacks'

Ambassador Oded Eran is the director of the prestigious Institute for National Securities Studies in Israel. Before taking charge of theinstitute, Dr Eran has worked in various capacities for the Israeligovernment that include ambassador of Israel to the European Union (that also included NATO) and Jordan and head of Israel’s negotiatingteam with Palestine in 1999-2000. He also served as the World JewishCongress Representative in Israel. He is considered as one of theIsraeli experts on the Middle East crisis and other security relatedissues. Dr Eran, who was in India for a series of interactions withleading members of the Indian think-tank last week, spoke to PranaySharma. Excerpts:

A series of meetings were held by different Palestinian groups onEgypt to sort out their differences. How do you assess these attempts?

There are very profound difficulties. The major ones have to do withdomestic distribution of power between the Hamas and the Fatah. Theother one which concerns us is whether Hamas will be willing to accepta formula which contains the recognition of Israel, renunciation ofviolence and the willingness to accept previous agreements signedbetween the Palestinians and the Israelis. I think there will bedifficulty in the second one. And that will be a serious concern toIsrael and the international community. This is mainly because theinternational community wants to see progress on the negotiationsbetween Israel and Palestinians. And secondly, it has to decide howthe economic assistance can be channelised to the Palestinian,especially in Gaza where Hamas took over almost by force, two yearsago.

Do you think any serious move can be taken between now and Januarywhen elections in Palestine are due?

I suspect there will be some sort of a patch-up. How long it will bemaintained is difficult to say because the basic ideological and otherrifts between the two movements in the Palestinian side are very deepand I don’t see how they are being bridged in the long run.

But for the time being can they agree on a formula to get thefinancial assistance going?

I think this may happen. But the elections, if they take place inJanuary 2010, may only aggravate the problem rather than solve it.

Binyamin Netanyahu is known for his hard-line position vis-à-vis thePalestinians. But now as the Prime Minister what kind of a stand doyou expect him to take?

I think he will go into his first meeting with President Barack Obamawith the issue of nuclearisation of Iran. It is overshadowingeverything else. Because Iran’s aim is to arm the Hamas and cause aserious threat to Israel on the one hand and unwillingness to acceptthe political comprises which is needed if any progress is to be madein the negotiations. Then it uses the other proxy--Hezbollah--throughSyria to destabilize the situation in Lebanon. And it continues to bea long-term threat to Israel from the North. But he might say that heis willing to make progress on the Palestinian issue by making everyIsraeli effort to enhance the economic activity, raise the standard ofliving on the Palestinian side and create economic movement. For thatIsrael will be ready to take certain steps which may increase thesecurity problem but I am willing to make this sacrifice in order toachieve the economic recovery. If conditions prevails then he will bewilling to continue the negotiations on behalf of Israel with thePalestinians to reach a comprehensive settlement between the twosides.

Is Iran then the main destabilizing factor in the region?

Definitely so. I don’t see any other factor or any other regionalactor which causes so many problems. The Super Power rivalry of thecold war does not exist any more. The only state that plays negativepolitics in the region is Iran. And under the nuclear cover if theyobtain the capability it will worsen.

But is it mainly because of Ahmedinejad? In the past you have haddealings with Iran.

Pre-1979 during the time of Shah there were links. But since thenthere has been a serious deterioration. There is no dialoguewhatsoever and Iran has become a very negative player in the regionalpolitics and regional security. This is mainly because of their verydeep and strong religious ideology of the current regime in Iran. Wemaintain relations with other countries. With two at least we havepeace treaties and so it is not necessarily that a certain regime isMoslem that you cannot have relations. It is the other regime’s choicewhether to have relations with Israel. Even the other countries in theregion like Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain areall concerned with Iran’s plan to become a nuclear power.

How do you see the US’ attempt to normalise relations with Iran?

I think dialogue between the US and Iran is essential because this isthe preferred way of Israel to use diplomatic means to solve issues.But at the same time it has to be clear that this dialogue cannot goon forever. Because we know from past experience that the Iranians areusing this time to become militarily a nuclear power. We are mottalking about nuclear power for peace, we are talking about weaponisation of their nuclear capability. If such a dialogue canproduce a solution Israel will go all the way to accept it.

But Israel has not been a party to earlier proposals of making theentire region nuclear weapons’ free.

We were. What we have been saying is that the concrete proposals didnot take into consideration the concerns of Israel. In principle, whatwe are saying is that the road to have a nuclear free zone is to buildpeaceful relations between Israel and its neighbours. There is a needto reach an understanding on all the conflicts. If they are not, itcan be used by others for an excuse to attack Israel. The nuclearweapons free zone has to be created in such a logical way that thereare no potential threats to Israel’s security.

But will improvement of US-Iran relations be a concern to othercountries in the region. Say, the Saudis?

I don’t think so. They are not competitors though both supply energyto the world they can take care of their economic interests. The causefor concern for the Saudis and others is over Iran’s attempt to becomea nuclear power. Therefore, I don’t see why Saudi Arabia should beworried if normal relations between Iran and US prevents Iran’snuclear weaponisation.

But then Iran might ask for the US accepting its pre-eminence in the Gulf

We all need to realize that Iran because of its history, itsgeo-political location and power is a major regional power. Nobodydenies that. Iran is needed for solving the issue of Pakistan andAfghanistan. Iran is needed for a positive solution of the Iraqisituation. Iran is needed for the stability for the western side ofthe region--the Mediterranean side of the Middle East. So Iran is aplayer, we recognize it. We are not trying to downsize Iran. What weare asking is how Iran can play a positive role.

Can there be more attacks like 26/11 in what we saw in Mumbai?

I have no doubts that there will be more such attacks. Efforts thatall governments are making have been successful in making it moredifficult for such attacks. But, in my view, it is just a matter oftime. We see, in our region, a proliferation of rocketry. You don’t haveto cross the border any more. You have to acquire the technology andterrorize the society just by launching simple rockets.

Is Pakistan a key factor to instability in the region?

Pakistan controls a large arsenal of conventional weapons. If asituation arises that Pakistan can no longer control its conventionalweapons they may find their way elsewhere. Secondly, it is a veryfrightening proposition that its non-conventional weapon disappearsfrom Pakistan and who knows what happens then.

Looking back at the Mumbai attack how do you see it? Do you see apattern to what happened there and in other parts of the world?

It is a pattern. We have seen it in London and Madrid. People comefrom others part in to the country and India has long borders, Israelhas long borders and so does United Kingdom. One can enter Spain withease from North Africa simply by taking a boat. It shows how easilyone can obtain arms and move them across borders and how difficult itis for normal societies to protect themselves from becoming targets tosuch attacks.

In our region much of the problem is emanating from Pakistan. So whatneeds to be done?

What needs to be done is to improve dramatically the intelligence workbecause through this you can prevent such attacks. You need to havecooperation of governments which is not happening today.

And how do you ensure that cooperation?

By sanctions against government which do not cooperate. You tell thesegovernments: We need your true cooperation and if you don’t do it, this is whatit will cost you. But all of this will not be sufficient if there isno economic activity. We need long term economic investment insocieties. We have seen societies that do not get basic services fromtheir government and are, therefore, susceptible to be used by all orts of ideologicalorganizations.