The First World War Against Terrorism

The US authorities seem to be increasingly focussing , inter alia, on thelikely involvement of bin Laden's set-up in the terrorist incidents in the US onSeptember 11, which President George Bush has described as the beginning of thefirst war of the new millennium.

President Bush has also expressed the USA's determination to fight this wartill victory is won and the NATO countries and Russia have expressed theirsolidarity with the US in this matter. The support of India too, the greatestvictim of Pakistan and Afghanistan based international Islamic terrorism, wouldbe natural.

As part of the USA's counter-offensive to make the world safe frominternational Islamic terrorism, Mr.Bush has through Gen. (retd) Colin Powell,his Secretary of State, and Mrs. Wendy Chamberlin, the US Ambassador inIslamabad, sought Pakistan's co-operation. Musharraf has given a publicassurance of his "unstinted co-operation" against internationalterrorism. Mr.Bush told the media on September 13 that the US "has givenPakistan a chance to co-operate", thereby indicating some skepticism in hismind whether the military junta would and, if so, to what extent.

On the basis of present evidence, unless there has been a miraculous changein Musharraf's real attitude, his co-operation would, most probably, be moreproforma than real, for the following reasons:

• The strong bonds of personal and professional links between Musharraf and Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the clandestine Chief of Staff of Pakistan's Army of Islam, on the one side and bin Laden on the other. These bonds date from the Afghan war of the 1980s. The Army of Islam consists of bin Laden's Al Qaeda, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Al Badr.

• The equally strong bonds of these officers with the Taliban, which was created during Mrs.Benazir Bhutto's second tenure. These two officers, who were then posted as Director-General of Military Operations (DGMO), and Deputy Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) respectively, created the Taliban at the instance of Maj-Gen. (retd) Nasirullah Baber, her Interior Minister, who was himself the head of the Afghan Division of the ISI under her father.

• The way the two frustrated the efforts of Nawaz Sharif, after his return from Washington in July,1999, to co-operate with the US on the bin Laden issue.

• The fears entertained by them and by fundamentalist sections of the Army and Islamic organisations in Pakistan that the end of bin Laden's set-up and the Taliban could mark the beginning of the end of the so-called jehad in Jammu & Kashmir.

• Fears of an Islamic fundamentalist backlash against him if he is perceived as co-operating with the US against the Taliban and bin Laden.

• Ever since his appointment as the COAS in October, 1998, Musharraf has been proclaiming himself as strongly against international terrorism, but he has repeatedly excluded from this the terrorist activities of the so-called jehadis in J & K, the Taliban and bin Laden's set-up. He has never condemned or even criticised, however mildly, the terrorist activities of the Taliban and bin Laden's set-up by name.

If the US and other NATO powers really want their counter-offensive totriumph, they have to work for the replacement from power in Islamabad ofMusharraf, Lt.Gen.Muzaffar Usmani, his Deputy Chief of the Army Staff,Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, presently a Corps Commander at Lahore, and, possibly,Lt.Gen.Mahmood Ahmed, the ISI Director-General, by moderate officers, who wouldbe genuinely responsive to the concerns of the world community and sincere intheir commitment to co-operate in the fight against international Islamicterrorism. For this purpose, the US has to identify officers with no past linkswith bin Laden and the Taliban. India might be able to help it in this regard.

Unless this is done, Musharraf and his coterie, while seemingly co-operatingwith the US and the rest of the world community, would covertly work againsttheir counter-offensive. So long as this coterie continues in power, the chancesof a definitive success of the counter-offensive would be doubtful.

In this connection, it is necessary to recall what The Nation (January8, 1999) reported quoting Western (apparently US) diplomatic sources inIslamabad :

This position continues to be as valid today as it was in January, 1999.Musharraf and his coterie constituted this wheel within wheels under NawazSharif and continue to maintain their networking with the Taliban and bin Laden.

Amongst other first steps the US should take are:

• Demand that the junta immediately bans the Pakistan-based HUM, which is a member of bin Laden's International Islamic Front For Jehad Against the US and Israel and which was declared by the US as a terrorist organisation in October,1997, arrests its leaders and winds up its training camps. The Nawaz Sharif as well as the Musharraf regimes have avoided action against the HUM.

• Identify the officers in the Army and the ISI, who are mixed up with the Taliban and bin Laden's set-up, and demand their removal as the first Clinton Administration had demanded the removal of Lt. Gen.Javed Nasir, then DG,ISI, and many of its officers, who were sympathetic to the Arab terrorists in Afghanistan and frustrated US efforts to buy back the Stingers.

• Demand the arrest and expulsion to their country of origin of the remnants of the Arab mercenaries of the Afghan War, who are still present in Pakistan, even if they had been given Pakistani nationality.

• Demand the immediate posting of a much stronger team of UN monitors, than originally envisaged, near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to prevent Pakistani violations of the UN sanctions.

• Stop all bilateral and multilateral credits and other assistance to Pakistan till it shows signs of sincerity in co-operating with the world community.

The international Islamic terrorist syndicate's brain trust advising binLaden in Afghanistan are:

• Sheikh Taseer Abdullah, who is also known as Abu Hafs al-Misri. He could be the same person whom the FBI describes as Mohammed Atef, the military commander of bin Laden. Washington has charged Atef with involvement in the Kenya and Tanzania bombings and announced a reward of US $ 5 million for his capture. Sheikh Taseer was constantly at bin Laden's side ---whether it was in Peshawar and Afghanistan in the 1980s, in the Sudan subsequently and again in Afghanistan after bin Laden's return from Sudan in May, 1996. Sheikh Taseer, who dresses in the Afghan salwar-kameez like bin Laden and is bearded and turbaned, is a former Egyptian police officer. He came to Peshawar in 1983 and started participating in the Afghan jehad. He was amongst the first Arabs to have responded to the call of the Afghan Mujahideen for foreign volunteers and was instrumental in persuading many other Arabs to join the jehad. He joined the jehad even before bin Laden, the late Sheikh Abdullah Azzam and Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman, the Egyptian cleric now in jail in the US. Sheikh Taseer is also credited with persuading Sheikh Abdullah Azzam to resign his job as a lecturer in the Islamabad Islamic University and join the jehad. Azzam shifted to Peshawar and built up a vast network to help the Afghan refugees and arrange for the training of the Arab mercenaries and their subsequent induction into the jehad.

• Dr.Ayman al-Zawahiri, of Egypt's Al Jihad, whose grandfather, Mr.Abdul Wahab, used to be Egypt's Ambassador to Pakistan. The bespectacled al-Zawahiri and his family have been living in Afghanistan for the last 18 years.

• Two sons of Sheikh Omar---Mohammad,29, and Abu Asim. Their real names are not known.

• Abu Yasir Rifai Ahmed Taha (real name not known), another Egyptian.
• Shawki al-Islambouli, brother of Khalid Islambouli, who killed President Anwar Sadat. His presence is rumoured about, but not confirmed.

Bin Laden's own organisation in Afghanistan is dominated by Saudis, Yemenisand Egyptians, with a small number of Algerians, Tunisians, Libyans, Syrians,Jordanians, Palestinians and Iraqis. The organisation, which bin Laden heads, iscalled Al Qaeda (the Base or the Centre) and its military wing the 055 Brigade.The Brigade has a strength of about 300, all Arabs of the Afghan war vintage.Bin Laden's International Islamic Front consists of the following organisations:

The Al Qaeda.
The Jamatul Jihad of Egypt led by Dr.al-Zawahiri.
Another Egyptian group led by Abu Asim.
A third Egyptian group led by al-Islambouli. (unconfirmed)
The Harkat-ul-Mujahideen of Pakistan.
The Lashkar-e- Toiba of Pakistan.
The Sipah-e-Sahaba of Pakistan, an extremist Sunni organisation, which has been campaigning for the proclamation of Pakistan as a Sunni State
The Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, which is believed to be another name for the Al Qaeda. This is not confirmed. Hence, it is shown as a separate organisation
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, led by Jumma Namangani.
The Hizbe Islami Turkistan, also led by Namangani.
The Abu Sayyaf group of the Southern Philippines.
An organisation (name not known) of the Uighurs of Xinjiang in China.
The Taliban.

All these organisations have their own separate objectives. The Al Qaedafights for the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy and for the withdrawal of the USand British troops from Saudi Arabia. The Egyptian groups want Islamic rule intheir country. The HUM and the LET want the merger of J & K with Pakistanand, subsequently, the "liberation" of the Muslims in other parts ofIndia. The Sipah-e-Sahaba wants a Sunni State in Pakistan and the declaration ofthe Shias as non-Muslims. The Uzbek group wants an Islamic State and theTurkistan group wants an Islamic Federation of all Central Asian Republics andXinjiang. The Uighurs want independence.

The members of the Front help each other in their operations and look uponthe US and Israel as their common enemies.

The proposed global counter-offensive against International Islamic Terrorismhas to recognise the following ground realities:

• It will not be a one-shot war of limited duration over after a few spectacular air strikes and commando actions. The International Islamic Front has its presence in at least 20 countries. Only about 10 per cent of its hard core is in Afghanistan. The rest are spread all over the world. They would, therefore, be in a position to retaliate in the most unexpected places in the most unpredictable manner.

• Those who join the counter-offensive should show grit and consistency in carrying it through till final victory instead of developing cold feet when faced with huge casualties and infrastructure damage in their respective countries at the hands of the terrorists.

• Any unfortunate perception amongst the Muslims of the world that the counter-offensive is anti-Islam and not anti international Islamic terrorism would be counter-productive.

Any counter-offensive plan should have the following components:

• A Community of the intelligence agencies of the countries joining this counter-offensive for joint intelligence collection, sharing, analysis and operations.

• Mutual co-operation and assistance in strengthening the physical security of vital/sensitive infrastructure, air travel etc.

• Political, economic and diplomatic isolation of Pakistan, the Taliban Government and any other country assisting international Islamic terrorism, for whatever reason.

• Carefully worked out and precisely-targeted deniable covert actions against the terrorist groups and their leaders. One should avoid spectacular overt actions against them, which would be counter-productive. Public pressure for spectacular reprisals should be resisted.

In the 1950s and the 1960s, when a large number of democracies in the Westernas well as the non-aligned worlds were faced with armed Communist insurgenciessponsored by Moscow and Beijing, all the affected countries fought this menacejointly through a mix of overt and convert actions in a discreet,non-spectacular manner. That is the model to be emulated after updating it,where necessary.