Tempered By Democracy

The Chief of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M), Pushpa Kamal Dahalaka Prachanda’s takeover as Prime Minister has already created a minor tremorin the domestic political scenario and the world of diplomacy. In Nepal, thepolitics of consensus that was not only a political commitment, but aconstitutional dictate, has come to an end. The Nepali Congress (NC), the secondlargest party in the 601-member Constituent Assembly (CA), has not only decidedto sit in the opposition, it is fast transforming into a bitter politicaladversary. The United States (US), which still has the CPN-M on its terroristlist, is trying to mend fences without actually knowing how. India is suspiciousof the Maoists’ perceived proximity to China. And the European Union (EU) iscautiously watching how the Maoist-led government will deal with the humanrights issues and promote the politics of pluralism, with the right of dissentas its integral part. 

All this, of course, demands pragmatic balancing abilities on Prachanda’spart. It may be too early to come to any definitive conclusion within a week ofhis takeover as Prime Minister, but things do not appear smooth and rosy. OnAugust 22, he failed to form the Cabinet at its desired size. The CommunistParty of Nepal -- Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), part of the three-partyalliance under Maoist leadership, chose not to join at the last minute.Prachanda was firmly reluctant to accept Bamdeb Gautam, a two-time Deputy PrimeMinister in the past, as his number two, or to undermine the seniority of hislong-term comrade and intellectual prop, Baburam Bhattarai, now his financeminister. The CPN-UML has threatened to walk out of the alliance, if Prachandadid not offer the number two position to Gautam. The appointment of UpendraYadav of the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) may be seen Prachanda attempt ataccommodation, but if the NC and UML, the two major national parties, stay awayfrom the government, Nepal will most likely be headed towards politicalinstability and economic ruin. Moreover, the process of drafting the newConstitution, which calls for at least a two-thirds majority for adoption ofeach clause, will not be possible at all.

Prachanda’s real test will begin this week, when he returns from Beijingafter attending the concluding event of the Olympic games. He apparently ignoredIndia’s direct request to first visit Nepal’s southern neighbour, in keepingwith past practice. "It’s a sports-related visit and not directed againstIndia at all", C.P. Gajurel, head of foreign affairs of the party,clarified. But India will, perhaps, need more concrete assurances from theMaoists. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh not only sent a warm invitation to Dahalto visit Delhi at the ‘earliest convenient date’, he took all possible carenot to annoy Prachanda. Dr. Singh said India and Nepal need to fight commonenemies like hunger, scarcity and poverty, but omission of ‘terrorism’ waspart of a deliberate effort of appeasement towards the Nepali Maoists, anddemonstrates how important it is for Delhi to keep Prachanda happy.

Prachanda, of course, realizes that mere radical slogans are not going tokeep the people mesmerized for long. The King and the monarchy are gone. The NC,which has ruled the country for nearly ten of the 15 years of democracy, is notpart of the government. In other words, Prachanda’s government has no‘cushion’ available, and the people’s wrath will fix directly on him. Thatis why his first address to the nation as a Prime Minister, just before hisdeparture for China, was far more circumspect than earlier orations. For thefirst time, he made it clear that his government was totally committed to amulti-party democracy based on pluralism, that there would be regular elections,and that the rule of law would prevail. That was a veiled admission that, asPrime Minister, he would not be encouraging a parallel regime of the YoungCommunist League (YCL) and that of various other CPN-M organisations, includingits Kangaroo courts. 

Prachanda also pledged that his party would hold no grudge against the NepalArmy, much vilified in the past by the Maoists, and solicited all help from theArmy, the Armed Police force, the para-military forces that were set up to fight‘terrorists’ some five years ago, the Nepal Police and the government’sintelligence wing, the National Investigation Department. Invoking the ‘nationis under threat’ slogan, he said his topmost priority was to save thecountry’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. "If thatcannot be saved, democracy and republic will lose all relevance," adding,further, that "one party, one man or one institution alone can not savethis." Touching on this most emotive issue, Prachanda solicited individualand institutional support, but, at no stage, did he reveal where the threatemanated from. Many read this statement as an indication that Prachanda is in nohurry to integrate the Maoist People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with the NepalArmy.

As Prime Minister, Prachanda is certainly trying to dispel the impression athome that the Maoists, once in power, will establish authoritarian one-partyrule. There are still fears in the public that, with the monarchy voted out in acaptive CA that did not even allow a debate on the issue, the Maoists wouldtarget the Nepal Army, the judiciary -- mainly the Supreme Court -- and theMedia, institutions that could create organized resistance to authoritarianism.Prachanda’s appeal will, however, still be seen more as a tactic than a changeof heart and mission, since other senior leaders of his party have said thattheir war for a ‘people’s republic’ will continue from the government, CAand the street. All Prachanda’s pledges, including the one that his governmentwould respect press freedom and human rights are, consequently, met with visibledegrees of public distrust.

The Maoists are yet to return the property they ‘confiscated’ fromindividuals during the years of conflict -- something Prachanda pledged to dolong ago, when he signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement way back in 2006. TheYCL is presently lying low, but its military structure has not yet beendismantled. Prachanda will now be judged more on delivery than on rhetoric. Inother words, he may not have a reasonable spell of what is called a ‘honeymoonperiod’ which any new government would normally enjoy. The reason is simple:either as an insider or an outsider, the CPN-M has determined the course ofpolitics and major political decisions in the country ever since they joined thepeace process in April 2006.

Apart from the law and order situation being at its lowest ebb, the country hasbeen suffering from acute shortages of fuel and cooking gas for the past twoyears, mainly due to the huge arrears of the Nepal Oil Corporation against theIndian Oil Corporation, the sole supplier for Nepal. The country’s far-westernand some eastern areas have already been declared scarcity hit, with starvationlooming large. The government’s ability to deliver, or lack thereof, willlargely dictate how people will view the new government. Further, the UML and NCdecision to stay away from the government not only makes the Constitutionwriting process difficult, it also endangers the peace process. That will have adirect bearing on the prospects of the government.

But Nepal’s politics has an equal, if not greater, external component as well.India mediated and brought the Maoist and pro-democracy forces together in theanti-monarchy platform, getting them to sign a 12-point Agreement way back inNovember 2005, but is now sore over the Maoists’ perceived pro-China tilt,seeing Prachanda’s recent visit to Beijing as evidence. 

Prachanda has, at times, shown scant respect for India’s security concerns,and is on record having supported a ‘plebiscite’ in Jammu and Kashmir and inIndia’s Northeast. As he moved closer to the power, however, he and hisdeputy, Baburam Bhattarai, have tried to convince Delhi that they would respectIndia’s genuine security interests and not allow Nepal to be used against itssouthern neighbour. In the same breath, however, they have also said that allthe major treaties that Nepal has signed with India need a review, if considerednecessary, may be scrapped. The first such treaty they have in mind is the 1950Treaty of Peace and Friendship, besides other agreements concerninghydro-projects. The day following his takeover, Prachanda said that the firstever hydro-power treaty that Nepal signed with India (the Kosi project) was a‘historic blunder’ and that he would take the devastation caused by the Kosiflood on the Nepal side to the international community.

India’s Bharatiya Janata Party, mainly L.K. Advani, the party’s projectedprime ministerial candidate for the 2009 elections, has accused the ManmohanSingh government of ‘outsourcing’ its Nepal policy to the Communist Party ofIndia -- Marxist (CPI-M). Advani was equally critical of the world’s onlyHindu kingdom being turned into a ‘secular republic’ without involving thepeople in this decision. The BJP’s possible return to power may not be theundoing of what has already happened in Nepal, but Prachanda has other reasonsto fear the BJP’s return to power. Prachanda is likely to undertake a visit toIndia sooner than many think, as he also needs to address Delhi’s suspicionover his China visit. 

There are other international players as well, who are cautiously watchingdevelopments in Nepal. The EU has raked up the issue of suppression of the‘Free Tibet’ movement (the CPN-M and the UML are two parties that have‘denounced’ the free Tibet movement as something that Nepal should not beencouraging). With Prachanda’s visit to China, and Beijing’s sensitivitieson the subject, Kathmandu’s ruthlessness towards the movement is almostcertain to increase. What is yet to be seen is how the EU will respond, andwhether any future repression will have a bearing on the grants and assistancethat Nepal receives from the EU. There is also the US, with the Maoists stillstuck with the ‘terrorist’ tag, warning the new rulers to adhere tointernational standards of human rights and freedoms.

Balancing domestic and external compulsions will be a tough job indeed. Itremains to be seen whether Prachanda’s party, which has not only survived andexpanded on radical slogans and finally come to grab power, will allow the newgovernment to be just a little more efficient, and forego their radical dream.But Prachanda’s chair will certainly start shaking the moment he gives moreweight to his party’s programmes and policies. He will be equally vulnerablethe moment he stops to listen to the EU and other liberal democraticconstituencies. Prachanda is already sinking in the quagmire of a politicalsystem called democracy.

Yubaraj Ghimire is Editor, Samay and Newsfront, Kathmandu.Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia TerrorismPortal