So Who Nuked The Snap Polls?

Many commentators are disappointed and bewildered by the government’s failure to risk a snap poll in an effort to save face as well as the N-deal. But does the snap poll option at all exist for thegovernment? According to the political grapevine UPA allies Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi and Lalu Yadav had warned the Congress that if it attempted a snap poll, they would withdraw support to the government. Reports about the reluctance of these leaders to face a snap poll have already appeared in the press. This threat by allies that are part of the UPA government is qualitatively very different from the threat held out by the Left.

The Congress with its majority in the cabinet could conceivably bulldoze a cabinet decision for dissolution of parliament. But to be effective that decision would have to be conveyed to the President before its majority inParliament vanishes. In other words, Congress would have to pre-empt its allies to advise dissolution of parliament to the President. If the allies withdraw support before that can be done the President constitutionally would be compelled to explore an alternate government before accepting the demand for dissolution.

Would it be possible for the Congress to pre-empt the allies? If the PM were to approach the President a simple statement of withdrawal by the allies would suffice to stay the President’s hand. The formality of the allies meeting the President to convey this demand could follow subsequently. It may be recalled that the President’s candidature was initiated by Sharad Pawar. It is reasonable to infer that there would be enough sources in Rashtrapati Bhawan to alert the allies if a Congress move for dissolution appeared imminent.

If this surmise is correct, prospects for the N-deal to survive during this government’s term appear bleak. The only hope for the Congress would be, then, for the UPA government to strike a deal with the BJP. In the prevailing circumstances that appears almost impossible.