Reviving That Lovin' Feeling

It was a short visit -- just 22 hours long -- but it packed quite a punch. The Russian Prime Minster, Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi ended up in more than a dozen agreements worth about $10 billion being signed between the two states. India and Russia not only reiterated their age-old partnership but tried to give a new dynamism to a relationship that many in both countries argue has been drifting for some years now. The rise of China is the new reality that India and Russia are trying to come to grips with and this will shape the contours of Indo-Russian ties in the future.

After the Cold War, both India and Russia struggled for several years to define their relations with other major players on the global stage, where the rules of international politics were in a state of flux and where the terms of the economic interaction between nations were being reset. As India rose in the global inter-state hierarchy, many in India continued to rely on Russia for railing against the ‘unipolar world order.’ The most visible manifestation of this tendency was an attempt to carve a Russia-China-India ‘strategic triangle.’ The proposal for a Moscow-Beijing-Delhi strategic triangle had originally come from the former Russian Prime Minister, Yevgeny Primakov, during his visit to India in 1998, arguing that such an arrangement would be a force for greater regional and international stability. But as every state in the triangle needed the US to further its own interests, this project could not move beyond platitudinous rhetoric.

And now with the US in relative decline and China emerging its most likely challenger, Russia and India are struggling with the implications of a possible Chinese hegemony over the Asian strategic landscape. It is this geopolitical imperative that is forcing Delhi and Moscow to ramp up their partnership. While this was not discussed in the open, this is the hidden subtext behind the rapidity with which the two states are trying to revise their relationship.

Defence, of course, remains central to Indo-Russian relations. During Putin’s trip, significant defence deal were signed that included a new $2.34 billion contract for the refit of the Gorshkov aircraft carrier; a $1.2 billion deal to procure 29 additional MiG 29 K naval fighter aircraft; and an agreement for an additional 40 Su MKI fighters for the Indian Air Force. Though there is disquiet among Indian armed forces about the Russian behaviour over Admiral Gorshkov, it is also clear that Russia is the only state that is willing to share defence technology of strategic nature with India including aircraft carriers and nuclear submarine. And as Putin reminded his Indian audience that Russia is probably the only major global power that has not sold defence technology to Pakistan. Civilian nuclear energy cooperation also gathered momentum with a comprehensive nuclear deal between India and Russia and a pact to build two power plans in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Russia is already constructing four nuclear reactors in India and this nuclear pact will lead to more than a dozen Russian nuclear power plans in India.

The most challenging aspect of Indo-Russian relations today is, perhaps, the upgrading of bilateral economic and trade relations, which fails to reflect the potential that exists and is a major challenge that the two countries are trying to address on a priority basis. Bilateral trade stands at about $8 billion and after years of persistent decline has only recently picked up. Putin has promised greater access to Indian investment in hi-technology sectors where Russia needs all the help it can. Information technology and financial sector is where Indian companies are trying to get a foothold in Russia. India is also seeking greater access to Russian oil and natural gas. Indian investment in the Sakhalin projects is being seen as the beginning.

Most significant in the regional context was Putin’s assertion that the security situation in Afghanistan “did impact the security” of India and Russia. Therefore, the two states have planned to cooperate more closely in the future on Afghanistan. This comes at a time when Indian disenchantment with the West on Af-Pak is at an all time high and it is looking at alternative policy options to secure its interests. The US has actively discouraged India from assuming a higher profile in Afghanistan for fear of offending Pakistan. At the same time it has failed in getting Pakistan to take Indian concerns more seriously. More damagingly, the Obama Administration has systematically ignored India in crafting its Af-Pak policy. This has led to a rapid deterioration in Indian security environment with New Delhi having little or no strategic space to manoeuvre. To preserve its interests in such a strategic milieu, India is re-assessing its options. Reaching out to Moscow is just the first step.

There are few examples of a relationship between countries that has been as stable as the one between India and Russia. Despite the momentous changes in the international environment after the end of the cold war, there remains a continued convergence of interests that makes it advantageous for both India and Russia to maintain close ties. The challenge for the two now is to provide a new direction to their relationship at a time when the rise of China threatens to upend the regional and global balance of power.