Narendra Modi, Prime Minister?

In his 10 years as Chief Minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi can take credit for implementing development-oriented policies that have delivered results that no contemporary Indian politician can match up to. These are best showcased by his ability to attract industry into Gujarat: Vibrant Gujarat summits have attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and launched a new Industrial Revolution in Gujarat. What is less known is that agricultural growth rate in Gujarat over the last decade is close to 7 percentage points higher than the all India figure. Lakhs of check dams have been built, water conservation measures taken and the overall health of the water table improved. Through the Jyotigram Yojna, Modi has delivered uninterrupted power supply to villages across the state. He has come up with innovative solutions like evening courts to reduce the backlog of pending cases and special incentives and schemes to educate the girl child. He personally donates gifts made to him for these schemes. He has held training courses for over 5 lakh government employees in an attempt to improve governance. The roads and ports of Gujarat have been made among the best in the country. Modi has himself written a book on climate change and has succeeded in developing significant wind and solar energy power projects.

The next Gujarat assembly elections are 18 months away and the Congress is attempting to reinvent itself on an anti-industrialization platform by reaching out to poor and marginalized sections of society that have yet to see the benefits of industrialization, and has tried to piggyback on popular agitations such as the one led by rebel Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MLA, Dr Kanubhai Kalsaria. But, regardless of what the Congress does, Modi is extremely likely to win a landslide victory in 2012. He has swept by-elections in seats held by the Congress since the formation of Gujarat state, and has led the BJP to landslide victory in last year’s municipal and panchayat polls winning 21 out of 24 district panchayats and 47 out of 53 municipalities. The BJP demolished the Congress in urban Gujarat, winning 61 out of 75 seats in Vadodara and 98 out of 114 seats in Surat and has successfully dismantled the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) winning formula of the Congress.

And yet the same Modi— a man who transformed his state, reaped electoral victories for his party and emerged as a cult hero for middle-class Indians —would almost certainly lose if he stood as the Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014, even if he was fighting against someone with no governance or administrative experience, someone nominated just because he’s part of a dynasty that has ruled the country since independence.

Muslims and liberal Hindu antipathy for Modi, whom they hold responsible for the 2002 riots, explains this incongruity. This strong anti-Modi block would not necessarily vote for the Congress, but for the strongest anti-BJP force in each constituency. This voting pattern was observed in the frenzy of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement in the 1990s in Uttar Pradesh, but because of the Hindu consolidation it paid electoral dividends for the BJP. In the absence of an emotive issue to consolidate Hindu votes this time around, it will destroy the BJP. Realizing this, parties that are dependent on the anti-Modi vote would desert the BJP. Nitish Kumar, who refused to allow Modi to enter Bihar in the 2010 elections, would pull the Janata Dal (United) out, thus further reducing the strength of the NDA. This would leave only the Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal as its prominent members likely to endorse Modi as PM. The BJP would be unable to get allies, whose support would be crucial to come to power, such as the Telegu Desam Party, Asom Gana Parishad, Biju Janata Dal and the Trinamool Congress in states where it is weak or has no presence in.

Modi has recognized the Muslim antagonism towards him and has made an attempt to reach out to them. The BJP has extensively used the Sachar Committee report to show how Muslims in Gujarat are richer, better educated and have a higher share of state employment than the national average of their counterparts. Muslims have also started supporting the BJP in Gujarat. Over 100 Muslims won on BJP tickets in recent municipal and panchayat elections. The BJP victory in the Kathlal by-election was with significant Muslim support.

Yet no matter what Modi does to reach out to Muslims, their hostility to him will not evaporate because of the stigma of the Gujarat riots. This was demonstrated by therecent episode involvingDar ul-Ulum Deoband's Vice-Chancellor Maulana Ghulam Vastanvi, a Gujarati, who firstsaid that there was no discrimination against minorities in Gujarat and that the state was progressing under Modi and then, later, under pressure, had to make a subtle but significant change in his stand.

Needless to say, any decent person would consider the 2002 riots reprehensible.But what is also reprehensible is the vilification of Modi by the liberal media. In the nine years after the riots, no piece of evidence has been unearthed tying him to the carnage and according to the leaked Special Investigating Team (SIT) report, he has been absolved of any blame. On the other hand, some of the claims of NGOs and self-proclaimed secular politicians have been dismantled by authorities and the judiciary as fabrications. However, the damage done by the smear campaign remains and Modi continues to be criticized by the liberal media.

Modi has tried to get people to move on by single-mindedly focusing on the development of Gujarat and urging people to forget the riots. This has not won over the vast majority of his detractors. For that to happen, he must do his raj dharma and act against the adharma that occurred in 2002. He could make a beginning by publicly proclaiming that he intends to ensure justice to all victims of the riots, will appoint fast track courts as Naveen Patnaik did in Orissa for Kandhamal riot victims and see to it that the perpetrators —be they the foot soldiers, the policemen that aided them or the local leaders— of the riots are brought to book. While this in fact may be the role of the judiciary, the reality is that without political pressure it will not be done. It would help if he announced a a comprehensive relief package for the victims of the riots as well.

These actions will certainly lose some far right votes and further antagonize the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP). Muslims still might not vote for him or the BJP (for perspective: it took Sikhs time to vote for the Congress after the 1984 riots), but it will certainly reduce their hostility towards him. They are unlikely to then vote en masse for the strongest anti-BJP candidate, effectively splitting the Muslim vote to great effect for the BJP. He should be able to attract a large number of swing voters: Hindus who are in awe of Modi’s developmental achievements and sick of the corrupt Congress but uncomfortable with backing Modi because of the taint of the 2002 riots. Modi’s greater acceptability will also bring back previous and potential regional allies. If Modi is serious about prime-ministership, he needs to act now, not after he wins the 2012 Gujarat elections for that will leave him with too little time to correct misconceptions and attract new allies. It would also then seem like a symbolic gesture a year before General Elections.

If Modi doesn’t address the 2002 riots, he will either lose the 2014 elections or coalition compulsions will ensure that the BJP does not even nominate him. No other contemporary Indian politician has the vision, dedication, integrity and guts of Modi. If he doesn’t become PM, the loss will not only be his and the BJP’s, but the country's.

Karan Shah is a 2009 Economics and Political Science Graduate of Haverford College, USA. He is a co-founder of www.grow-trees.com