iNDiA Opining

ELECTIONS 2004
iNDiA Opining
Exit polls after Phase III more or less confirm earlier trends--despite some upward revision, a not so feel good situation for the ruling coalition that seems to be left pining for a simple majority. From shining to whining to pining to...well, it would seem as if we are in for realigning on May 13.

PROJECTIONS (TOTAL): Out of 543 LS seats(After Phase 3)

		BJP+	Cong+	Others
Aaj Tak		268	175	100
	26 April	262	177	104
	20 April	288	159	96
NDTV		245-265	185-205	90-110
	26 April	235-255	190-210	100-120
	20 April	260-280	165-185	110-115
Sahara-DRS		263	181	88
Star News		270-282	167-179	87-99
	26 April	267-279	160--172	97-109
Zee-Taleem		267	187	89

EXIT POLL THIRD PHASE: 5 MAY: Total Seats 83

	BJP+	Cong+	Others
Aaj Tak	51	15	17
Sahara-DRS	47	16	20
Star News	53-59	12-16	12-16
NDTV	55	15	13
Zee-Taleem	44	14	20

EXIT POLL PHASE 1+ PHASE 2+ PHASE 3(TOTALS SEATS 361)

	BJP+	Cong+	Others
Aaj Tak	195	115	51
Sahara-DRS	200	117	44
NDTV	180	130	52
Zee-Taleem	180	114	66

Statewise Exit Polls

Uttar Pradesh

Seats in Second and Third Phase: 62 /Total 80
Party	1999 Actual	Star News	Aaj Tak	Zee- Taleem	Sahara- DRS	NDTV
BJP+	21	26	22	22	22	22
Cong+	5	10	6	8	8	8
SP	23	15	21	17	32*	32*
BSP	12	10	12	13
Others	1	1	1	2
*Combined tally of SP, BSP and Others

Rajasthan

Seats in Third Phase: 25 /Total 25
Party	1999 Actual	Star News	Aaj Tak	Zee- Taleem	Sahara- DRS	NDTV
BJP+	16	20	20	16	18	20
Cong+	9	5	5	9	5	5
Others	0	0	0	0	0	0

Bihar

Seats in First, Second and Third Phase: 40 /Total 40
Party	1999 Actual	Star News	Aaj Tak	Zee- Taleem	Sahara- DRS	NDTV
BJP+	30	24	27	24	24	18
Cong+	9	14	12	11	16	22
Others	1	2	1	5	0	0

Madhya Pradesh

Seats in Third Phase: 12 /Total 29
Party	1999 Actual	Star News	Aaj Tak	Zee- Taleem	Sahara- DRS	NDTV
BJP+	9	11	10	9	10	11
Cong+	3	1	2	3	2	1
Others	0	0	0	0	0	0

The ruling NDA could end up justshort of an absolute majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha, according to exitpolls at the end of the third phase of polling today.

Early seat projections by Aaj Tak and Sahara TV channels gave 268 and 263seats respectively to the NDA, while Star News gave it an absolute majority of270-282.

Aaj Tak, which interviewed 52,000 voters in 19,000 booths, gave the Congressand its allies 175 and 'Others' 100. The Sahara-DRS poll gave the Congress andallies 181 and other parties 88.

The poll on Star News channel conducted by C-Voter projected 167-179 to theCongress and its allies and 87-99 to 'Others'.

National projections by the NDTV on the basis of today's polling gave the BJP-led alliance 245-265 seats withthe Congress and its allies pegged between 185-205 seats and 'Others' bagging 90-110 seats.

In its predictions for the 83 seats that went to polls today in seven states,the poll on Star News gave NDA 53-59, Congress and allies 12-16 and 'Other'parties 12-16.

The Sahara poll projected 47 seats for the NDA, 16 for the Congress and itsallies and 20 for 'Others'.

Early seat projections by Zee-Taleem predicted 267 seats for the NDA, 187 forthe Congress and its allies and 89 for 'Others'.

Zee interviewed up to 40,000 voters and gave the NDA and its allies 44 seats,the Congress and its partners 14 and 20 to 'Others'.

AC Nielsen interviewed 34,449 voters for the NDTV-Indian Express Opinion Poll, which predicted BJP and its allies winning in 55 out of the 83 seats which went to polls today, improving its 1999 tally by 14 seats.

The exit poll gave 15 seats to the Congress and its allies, reducing their tally by five seats while predicting a win for others in 13 constituencies, losing in nine seats in the penultimate phase.

In Madhya Pradesh, where elections were held for 12 of the 29 seats, the Zeesurvey predicted nine seats for the BJP and three to the Congress while theSahara poll gave the saffron combine 10 and the Congress two seats respectively.

According to Star News, the BJP would win in 10 seats while the Congresswould get two seats in MP.

In Bihar, where polling was completed today in all the 40 seats, the BJP-JD(U)combine appeared to be getting 24 seats, while the RJD-Congress was expected toget 16 seats, as per the Sahara survey. This meant a loss of six seats for theNDA as compared to 1999.

The Zee survey projected 24 seats for the NDA, giving 11 to the Laloo-ledcombine and five to 'Others' while Star News gave 24 to the NDA, 14 to the Cong-RJDand two to 'Others'.

Aaj Tak predicted 27 seats for the NDA, 12 for the Cong-RJD and one to 'Others'.

In Uttar Pradesh, where elections have been held in 62 out of 80 seats, Zeepredicted that BJP would win 22, Congress eight, Samajwadi Party 17, BSP 13 andothers one, while Sahara gave the BJP 20, Congress eight and others, includingSP and BSP 34.

In Uttar Pradesh, Aaj Tak gave 22 seats to the BJP, six to the Congress, 21 toSP and 12 to the BSP while Star News predicted 26 for the BJP, 10 for theCongress, 15 for the SP, 10 for the BSP and one for 'Others'.

A Zee exit poll in Lucknow, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee'sconstituency, said the BJP had polled 55 per cent of the votes cast,Congress-backed Ram Jethmalani 12 per cent, SP 18 per cent and 'Others' two percent.

In Rajasthan, where polling was held for all the 25 seats, Zee predictedstatus quo with the BJP and Congress getting 16 and nine seats respectively asin the dissolved House.

The Sahara-DRS poll, however, predicted that BJP would consolidate itsposition and get 20 seats while the Congress would win in five seats. Aaj Takand Star News also made same projection for Rajasthan.

According to NDTV, the BJP-led alliance was predicted to win 20 seats (gain of four) out of 25 in Rajasthan, 11 out ofthe 12 which went to polls in Madhya Pradesh today (gain of two), eight in Bihar (same as earlier), 14 in Uttar Pradesh (gain of six) and two in other states (gain of two).

The projections for the Congress and allies in Rajasthan stood at five (loss of four), Madhya Pradesh 1 (loss of two), Bihar 4 (gain of one), Uttar Pradesh 3 (gain of one) and two in other states, a loss of one seat.

Others (apparently the Samajwadi Party and BSP) were projected to win 13 seats in UP - a decline from the earlier 20.

The overall tally projected by the channel for the ruling alliance was pegged at 18 in Bihar ( a loss of 12), 26 in Madhya Pradesh (gain of five), 21 in Rajasthan (gain of four) and 31 in Uttar Pradesh (gain of four).

For the Cong-led alliance, it predicted 22 in Bihar (gain of 13), five in Rajasthan (loss of four), three in MP (loss of five) and 10 in UP (loss of one).

The exit poll predicted the Samajwadi Party winning in 22 seats (loss of four) andthe Bahujan Samaj Party winning 16 seats in Uttar Pradesh, increasing its previous tally by two seats.

Comparing the exit polls at the end of the three rounds, the surveys said theNDA had gained lost ground. For the 361 seats where elections have been held sofar, Zee gave the NDA 180 seats, Congress and allies 114 and 'Others' 66.

Sahara gave the BJP-led combine 200 seats, Congress 117 and 'Others' 44 whileAaj Tak gave 195 to NDA, 115 to Congress and 51 to 'Others'.

Polling in the final phase on May 10 will cover the remaining 182constituencies in 16 states and UTs.

With PTI Inputs