His Nine Lives

While the guilty verdict has come as no surprise, it is too early to dismiss Lalu Yadav and sing a requiem for him. He may have lost the opportunity to be the Prime Minister of India but his political relevance in Bihar remains strong and he will still be a player next year.

One down, four more to go. While Lalu Yadav has been convicted in one of the fodder scam cases, there are four other cases in which he is one of the accused. The verdict in those cases, their timing, the fate of his appeal in RC-20A and whether he manages to obtain bail or not will all have a bearing on the General Elections next year. The loss of his Parliamentary seat, barely seven months before the term of the present Lok Sabha expires, is really not of much significance to him. Nor the disqualification from contesting elections. He is used to rule by proxy and would have no trouble in back-seat driving while promoting his wife or sons. But Lalu Yadav will still be politically relevant if he is available for the election campaign. There are few leaders in Bihar, who can match his ability to connect with people and his oratorical skill. His absence will, therefore, be felt acutely by forces ranged against the BJP in Bihar.

Lalu’s studied public silence on Rahul Gandhi and the possibility of the government withdrawing the ordinance to negate the disqualifications laid down by the apex court, indicate that he is still hopeful of an alliance with the Congress. Indeed, he has no choice but to hope for such an alliance, having opposed the ‘communal BJP’ all his life. He certainly believes that the M-Y ( Muslim-Yadav) coalition can deliver the state to the UPA.

But a section of the Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi it seems, is inclined towards aligning with Nitish Kumar, although the latter has given no indication of his own thoughts on the issue. Assuming such an alliance takes place, how would the Yadavs, believed to constitute 15 to 16 per cent of the electorate, vote ? It is really anybody’s guess. The BJP is hopeful that the disillusioned Yadavs would switch their votes to the party and the rising stock of Nawal Kishore Yadav in Bihar BJP is a pointer to that hope. If that happens, BJP leaders hope to sweep the polls. 

Nitish Kumar on the other hand expects the minority votes to favour him. An alliance between the Congress and the JD(U), though probable, does not appear possible, given his life-long opposition of the Congress. A pragmatic politician, Nitish Kumar is far more likely to bide his time and, if necessary, support a NDA government (without Modi at the helm) at the centre. Lalu Yadav has no such luxury available to him. 

While ordering a CBI inquiry into the fodder scam, Patna High Court had explained the reason. Such a scam, over-drawals from several treasuries, could not have continued for such a long time without the connivance or complicity of the politicians at the top, it had observed. And that is what the investigating agency was expected to unravel. It was not going to be easy though. Chief Ministers in particular and politicians in general do not hand out receipts for the money they receive. Nor do they negotiate ‘deals’ with scamsters and allow themselves to be photographed or get their conversations recorded. Documents and circumstantial evidence, therefore, were the only way to implicate the involvement of politicians in high places. 

Lalu Yadav, during the period in question, was not just the chief minister of the state. He was also the home minister as well as the finance minister. He presented the budget and both the vigilance bureau and the police reported to him. That he knew that the people in AHD (Animal Husbandry Department) were making money, was a no-brainer. He made it even more obvious by flaunting his proximity to Shyam Bihari Sinha, the Regional Director, AHD at Ranchi, who was the king-pin of the scam. Sinha was the local guardian at Ranchi of the chief minister’s children, who were studying at the Bishop Westcott School. He made veterinarian, R.K. Rana, a childhood crony of his, a member of the Legislative Council. Both Sinha and Rana had unlimited access to the chief minister and were clearly rolling in money.

A well publicised incident at the Ranchi airport, some time in 1992 or 1993, had also placed the spotlight on the AHD. Some of the departmental officials and their wives were forced to disembark from a Delhi-bound plane by a team from the Income Tax Department. According to media reports at the time, the ladies, while walking back to the terminal building, took out cash and jewellery from their handbags and threw them away. The news was not followed up though and the Income Tax Department too allowed the issue to die down. The language of money was far more forceful. 

The Public Accounts Committee too got into the act and took over documents of the AHD departments. The then PAC chairman, Congress MLA Jagdish Sharma, wrote to the chief minister to stall an inquiry by the vigilance bureau into the irregularities in the AHD. There was no way the chief minister would not have known about these developments, specially when he had forwarded a letter from the PAC to the DGP for necessary action. 

The verdict, therefore, has not come as a surprise to anyone. Although it is unusual to prosecute as many as 45 people, who include politicians, IAS officers, treasury officers, section officers, traders, suppliers etc., in a solitary case of embezzlement, fraud and conspiracy and find sufficient evidence to find all of them guilty.