General Selection

Pakistan has had four military dictators (if one omits Gen.Iskander Mirza) in its history, but none hadsought to distort the entire constitutional and legal process in the country in such an outrageous manner asGen.Pervez Musharraf has done with his constitutional amendments and  administrative orders withoutconstitutional or legal sanction. None had misused the military-intelligence establishment  in such ablatant manner to manipulate the electoral process as he has been doing to influence the forthcoming electionsto the National Assembly on October 10, 2002.

Having decided that Pakistan needed him as the President for the next five years and got his decision"endorsed by the people" in a referendum widely perceived as rigged by the Inter-ServicesIntelligence (ISI) in April last, he has been trying, through the so-called elections on October 10, 2002, toensure the "election" of a hotch-potch  National Assembly in which the two mainstream politicalparties -- the Pakistan People's Party contesting under a slightly different name (PPP Parliamentarians) and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) of Nawaz Sharif -- would be marginalised and the political balance wouldremain in the hands of a group of politicians known for their mediocrity, lack of popular political base andmalleability by the military-intelligence establishment.

The "elections" are supposed to culminate in the coming to office of a Prime Minister, who,according to the machinations of  Musharraf, would exercise all residual executive powers  notretained by Musharraf such as those relating to general administration, the economic management and the socialsector. All powers relating to the military-intelligence establishment and national security managementincluding relations with India and other important foreign powers, Pakistan's contribution to theinternational war against terrorism, the nuclear deterrent etc  would continue to be exercised by thePresident, with the role of the "elected" Prime Minister reduced to agreeing with the decisions ofthe military dictator and explaining them to the National Assembly and getting its approval.

All past military dictators of Pakistan had got an act of indemnity passed by the newly-elected NationalAssembly in order to spare them from all prosecution for their acts of illegal commission and omission duringtheir dictatorial rule.  Not wanting to take any chance, Musharraf has by an order issued under hissignature  pardoned himself and all his colleagues and banned any legal action against them after aNational Assembly has been "duly elected".

It is doubtful whether  Musharraf would have been able to indulge in such a rape of democracy, whichis shocking even from Pakistan's standards, if he had not had the blessings of the US and if Nawaz Sharif andBenazir Bhutto had not discredited themselves in the eyes of the people  because of  their corruptand arbitrary ways of functioning when they held office as the duly elected Prime Minister.

However, despite the lingering bad taste in the mouths of sections of the public over the way Nawaz andBenazir misruled the country, Musharraf has not succeeded in his efforts to reduce them to irrelevance byexcluding them from the political process through orders of questionable fairness and validity which would nothave stood the test of judicial scrutiny in any democratic  country.  But, in Pakistan, thejudiciary has always been malleable and has once again lent itself to serve the narrow  interests of themilitary-intelligence establishment at the cost of the national interest.

Even if there is a modicum of fairness in the elections under international pressure, the PPP is certain tosweep the rural areas of Sindh where its, and Benazir's, popularity remains undiminished and will do well,though not so well as in the rural areas of Sindh, in the Seraiki areas of southern Punjab. Nawaz's PML woulddo well in central and northern Punjab and Altaf Hussain's Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Karachi,Hyderabad and Sukkur. The results would be mixed in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan.

It remains to be seen whether the international community would ensure such a modicum of fairness.  Inthe light of the USA's narrow interest in not contributing to a weakening of Musharraf's position, it isdoubtful whether it would.

Whatever be the outcome of the elections, it would not be the beginning of what Musharraf calls sustainabledemocracy. It would be the beginning of democracy in olive green, continued military rule behind a civilianfacade. Since Musharraf is a Mohajir, the Prime Minster is likely to be from outside Sindh.  It is believed by many analysts  in Pakistan that Musharraf's preference as his compliant Prime Minister wouldbe either Mian Mohammad Azhar, of the anti-Nawz faction of the PML called PML--Qaide Azam, , Farooq Leghari,former President, of the Millat Party, or Imran Khan, of the Tehrik Insaf Party.

While Mian is a Punjabi and Imran Khan a Pathan, Leghari is of mixed parentage---Seraiki father and Balochimother. Musharraf's anxiety not to further rub the Islamic fundamentalists on the wrong side, at a time whenthey are already angry over his pro-US policy,  might come in the way of his choosing Imran Khan, becauseof his marriage to a foreign woman and his image as a playboy. Leghari, a retired civil servant who enteredpolitics through the PPP, could turn out to be a good administrator, but he has a network of friendships amongthe Punjabi officers of the Army, which might make Musharraf nervous about him. Mian Azhar has all thequalities valued by Musharraf in a political leader -- mediocrity, a supine attitude to themilitary-intelligence establishment and lack of popularity.

The late Zia-ul-Haq thought that Mohammad Khan Junejo of the PML from Sindh had similar qualities whichwould make him a compliant Prime Minister and made him the Prime Minister after the "elections" of1985. Junejo grew up in office and turned from a compliant to a defiant Prime Minister, resulting in hisdismissal by Zia in 1988.  A similar transformation cannot be ruled out even in the case of any othercivilian political leader -- even Azhar --.but, that would be a long way off.

Whoever be the Prime Minister, whatever be the post--"election" combination in the NationalAssembly, whether the new Assembly is one of Musharraf's henchmen or of his detractors from the PPP and PML(pro-Nawaz), Musharraf and the military-intelligence establishment would continue to call the shots.  Itwould be unwise for India to count on any qualitative change in the Army's hostility towards India and in itspolicy of using pan-Islamic terrorism against India.

India should not be under any illusion that the coming into office once again  of civilian politicalleaders would mark a dilution in the Pakistani Army's hostility.  The US pressure on India to make agesture towards Musharraf by agreeing to a resumption of bilateral dialogue on all issues, including Kashmir,would increase.  New Delhi's response has to be based on a lucid calculation of India's nationalinterests and not on the desirability of a quid pro quo to  the US in view of its support to theelectoral process in J&K and its certification of the fairness of the elections there.

If such a quid pro quo to the US  is considered necessary for real politic reasons, India couldconsider any proposal for a resumption of the talks on nuclear confidence-building measures based on theagreements reached at Lahore in 1999, but should not relent in its opposition to any talks on the Kashmirissue unless and until Pakistan winds up its terrorist infrastructure directed against India. 

(The author is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently,Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai)