Don't Dismiss Al Qaeda

Over 190 people are reported to have been killed in seven well-orchestratedexplosions in Mumbai on July 11, 2006. Five of these explosions are reported tohave occurred in moving trains and the remaining two in railway stations. Mostof those killed and injured were railway commuters.

The expert orchestration of the explosions would be evident from thefollowing timings of different explosions:

Khar -- 1824 hrs
Bandra  -- 1824 hrs
Jogeshwari  -- 1825 hrs
Mahim  -- 1826 hrs
Mira Road  -- 1829 hrs
Matunga  -- 1830 hrs
Borivali  -- 1835 hrs

All the seven explosions, as would be seen from the above, took place withina time span of 11 minutes following each other in quick succession. Noinformation is as yet available on the explosives or detonators used or how theexplosions were triggered off.

As of now, there is no reason to believe that suicide terrorists wereinvolved. While there are as yet no indicators of the likely trigger mechanism,there are only three possibilities---a mechanical timer, a chemical timer and amobile telephone. Chemical timers of US origin given to Pakistan during the1980s were used in the Mumbai blasts of March,1993. In the Coimbatore serialblasts of February 1998, mechanical timers of local improvisation were used.Mobile telephones, which were reportedly used in the Madrid train blasts ofMarch, 2004, by  pro-Al Qaeda Salaqfi terrorists, have not so far been usedin India for serial blasts. They provide a remotely controlled mechanism forwell-timed explosions within a narrow time frame as we witnessed on July 11. Precision timing is generally difficult to achieve with mechanical and chemicaltimers. A wider time span would be required.

This is the third instance of mass casualty terrorism in the history ofterrorism in India. The first was the blowing up of an aircraft (Kanishka) ofAir India in June 1985 off the Irish coast by the Babbar Khalsa, a Sikhterrorist organisartion. About 300 innocent civilians were killed.

The second was the Mumbai blasts of March,1993, in which 250 innocentcivilians were killed in 13 well-coordinated explosions directed againstwell-chosen economic targets by a group of Muslims trained and armed byPakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), with the assistance of DawoodIbrahim, an Indian mafia leader presently living in Pakistan. The perpetratorswere carefully selected Muslim youth not belonging to any jihadi organisation.

This is the fourth instance of co-ordinated serial blasts. The first was inJune,1985, when some Sikh terrorists placed transistor radio sets filled withsmall quantities of explosives in different parts of New  Delhi. Whenpassers-by picked up the radio sets and switched them on, the explosions tookplace. The casualties were small.

The second was the Mumbai blasts of March,1993, and the third the Coimbatoreblasts of February,1998, in which  33 people were killed  and 153others were injured in a series of 12 bomb blasts. The explosive material (RDX)used in March,1993, were given to the perpetrators by the ISI. That used inFebruary,1998, was procured by the perpetrators  locally.

This is the second instance of multiple explosions in trains. The first wascarried out by the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) in December,1993,coinciding with the first anniversary of the demolition of the Babri Masjid inAyodhya in Uttar Pradesh by a Hindu mob.Those were random explosions and notwell-co-ordinated serial explosions. The casualties were small.

Jihadi terrorism in Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir is apost-1992 phenomenon and is attributable to the feelings of hurt and angercaused in the Muslim community---particularly the Muslim youth---by thedemolition of the Babri Masjid. The feelings of hurt over the demolition of themasjid are aggravated from time to time by feelings of anger over alleged policeatrocities against Muslims and over alleged Police failure to protect Muslims. Athird cause for anger since July last year has been the growing close relationswith the US and the perceived failure or reluctance of the government of Indiato express itself openly and in strong language against the violations of thehuman rights of the Muslims by the US.

Such feelings of anger have resulted in a series of acts of reprisalterrorism since 1993. These acts have been carried out by angry Indian Muslimsmanipulated by Dawood Ibrahim and the ISI; indigenous Muslim organisations withproved links to the ISI such as the SIMI; and indigenous Muslim organisationssuch as the Al Ummah of Tamil Nadu with no proved links to the ISI.  SomeIndian Muslims were responsible for the serial blasts of March, 1993 andFebruary,1998, and one should not be surprised if there is an involvement ofsome in the blasts of July 11, 2006, too.

More serious have been the acts of reprisal terrorism organised in the Indianterritory outside Jammu & Kashmir since 1993 by the Pakistani jihadiorganisations. The Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUJ), theHarkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) have beeninvolved in these acts, which were inspired and orchestrated by the ISI. All ofthem are members of Osama bin Laden's International Islamic Front (ISF) ForJihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish People formed by Osama bin Laden inFebruary,1998. These organisations have been operating from their bases inPakistan, Bangladesh and the Gulf countries. They have not so far organised multiple, well-timed explosions.

Of these, the LET has had the widest network in the North as well as theSouth. The HUJI has been showing signs of developing a similar network in theNorth and the South. The network of the HUM and the JEM is believed to berestricted to the North.

While the Pakistani organisations with their objective of"liberating" the Indian Muslims from the control of the Hindus haveenjoyed some support from the Indian Muslim youth, the Al Qaeda, with itspan-Islamic objective of forming an Islamic Caliphate, had not enjoyed anynoticeable support in the Indian Muslim community in the past. However, takingadvantage of the anger in sections of the Indian Muslims over the developingrelations with the US, Al Qaeda has been trying to rally the Muslims of India,including J&K, in its support.

Since 2003, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the #2 of Al Qaeda, has been critical of Indiaand the Hindus. Since the visit of Mr Bush to India in March 2006, Osama binLaden has joined this criticism. Before March 2006, Al Qaeda and bin Laden usedto talk of a Crusader-Jewish conspiracy against Islam. Since March 2006, theytalk of a Crusader-Jewish-Hindu conspiracy against Islam.

Al Qaeda has been critical of India's strategic relations with the US and ofwhat it projects as the US support to India on the Kasmir issue. But, it hasbeen silent on the Indo-US nuclear deal and on India's vote against Iran on thenuclear issue at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at Vienna.

The July 11 blasts coincided with the following events: the first anniversaryof the abortive terrorist strike by jihadi terrorists against the improvisedHindu temple at Ayodhya on July 5 last year; the first anniversary of the visitof Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh to the US in the third week of July lastyear; and the forthcoming G-8 summit in St. Petersburg in Russia later this weekwhere Dr. Manmohan Singh was expected to meet Mr Bush and review Indo-USrelations since March last.

The blasts have also come at a time of renewed tension in the relationsbetween sections of the Hindu and Muslim communities in Mumbai and signs ofunhappiness in sections of the Indian Muslim community over the decision of theManmohan Singh Government  to provide extra protection to an improvisedHindu temple at Ayodhya. The Muslims look upon this improvised temple as havingbeen constructed by Hindus on the land belonging to them over which thedemolished Babri Masjid stood.

While in the past, the Pakistani pan-Islamic organisations and the ISI havebeen taking advantage of the pockets of anger in the Indian Muslim community fortheir strategic objectives against India, since March this year, Al Qaeda hasbeen trying to take advantage of them for its own pan-Islamic and anti-USobjectives. In view of the increased interactions between the US and India, itis likely to look upon India as providing a fertile soil for its anti-USoperations.

The impact of Al Qaeda's propaganda and ideology on the minds of IndianMuslim youth, its possible inspiration behind the blasts of July 11 and likelythreats to American interests in India from Al Qaeda need close attention. TheMadrid blasts of March,2004, were preceded by strong anti-Spain propaganda by AlQaeda. The London blasts of July 7,2005, were preceded by strong anti-UKpropaganda by it. Anti-India statements of Al Qaeda since March,2006, need to beclosely monitored and not dismissed lightly as of no consequence.

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai.