Criminal Violence in Rio Up in Past 12 Months

In an interview, Robert Muggah, the research director at Igarape Institute, a Rio-based think tank on urban security talks about the city’s rising crime graph, policing and what the Olympics mean for the city’s future. Excerpts:

Do you think the current level of crime and violence poses a threat to the Olympics? 

All the evidence indicates that Rio de Janeiro's experienced a sharp increase in criminal violence over the past 12 months. Homicides are up 15% across the state in the first half of 2016 when compared to 2015. Police killings of civilians have also risen 40% since 2013, with 322 deaths between January and May 2016. More than 65 police officers have also been shot dead since the beginning of the year. Not surprisingly, citizens are feeling increasingly anxious and worried about falling victim to crime.

Taking a longer view, however, Rio de Janeiro's become safer over the past decade. An innovative policing experiment - called the pacification police units - is associated with a 65% drop in homicidal violence since 2009. The killing of civilians by the state's military and civilian police has dropped by over 46% from a high of 1,330 deaths (in 2007) to a low of 416 (in 2013). While levels of violence and impunity are still intolerably high, Rio de Janeiro is far more secure today than in the past. 

What kind of security preparations have been made for the games?

Brazilian authorities are dramatically expanding physical security on the ground. There are an estimated 47,000 police and 38,000 members of the armed forces who will be deployed during the three week mega event. Thousands of unarmed municipal guards and private security personnel will also be mobilized. This is more than twice the roll-out for the 2012 London Games. Over $500 million has been devoted to security - both online and off; the Ministry of Defense has also invested hundreds of millions in anti-terrorism training. What is more, a maritime task force of 3,000 marines will be on stand-by. It is shaping up to be the most securitized Olympics in history.

The focus of this large-scale security outlay will be devoted to protecting Olympic venues, tourist sites and transportation infrastructure. Security efforts on the ground will be coordinated by so-called integrated command and control centers (CICCs) under the auspices of the Federal Police. These centers will tap into a broad array of closed-circuit cameras, surveillance balloons, drones and other technologies. In summary, Brazil will receive more than 500,000 tourists and 10,000 athletes from 200 countries. It is safe to say that foreigners will be well protected so long as they don't stray far from secured areas.

What would be the social impact of such policing?

Paradoxically, all of this investment in public security may not benefit those who need it most - the poorer and under-serviced residents of Rio, many of whom live in informal settlements or favelas. For them, insecurity is likely to rise as police are redeployed to specific parts of the city. Some poorer communities have already been adversely impacted, not least the residents of Vila Autódromo, thousands of whom were forcibly evicted to make way for Olympic-related improvements.

Will the Olympics be free of major security threats? 

Most likely. It's important to remember that Brazil - and Rio de Janeiro in particular - knows how to throw a big party. To further strengthen its security preparedness, the government dispatched police and military personnel to a string of major international events over the past year, including the Boston Marathon, the Tour de France and the UN General Assembly meetings in New York.

Brazilian authorities are not the only ones that are preoccupied with online and offline attacks during the Olympic Games. Intelligence and police officials from 55 countries have set up shop in Rio de Janeiro to monitor the digital and physical terrain. They have reason to be uneasy: the Brazilian intelligence have identified over 1,600 hackers involved in more than 12,400 attacks on government domains since 2012. One of the most prominent hacking groups in Brazil is Anonymous.

What will be the long-term impact of the games in Rio?
The federal government is caught in one of the worst political and financial crises in the country's history. The state government is cash strapped, having recently declared a state of "public calamity" in order to release hundreds of millions of dollars to keep services running and salaries - including those of the military and civilian police - paid. Rio de Janeiro's public secretary for security had to shave over 35% of its 2016 budget due to plummeting oil revenues which keep the state government afloat. And morale in the police forces is at historic lows.