All Quiet On The Eastern Front

The intent was not so much to kill as to prove a point regarding the reach,the capability, and the serious intent of the attackers: the next time, it willbe much worse. 

The timing was also interesting: It happened just after the Prime MinisterKhaleda Zia left for China, along with senior officials. The country was, to putit mildly, paralysed. The blasts came with special effects: pamphlets thatmocked the idea of democracy and called for the establishment of Islamiclaw. 

Could it have been the work of Islamic militants? One week later, theBangladesh government is silent. Could it be that there was an intelligencefailure? Certainly, there has been no reshuffle to suggest that this is beingaddressed.

How many people would it take to precision-manage about 470-blasts withoutanybody catching on? There is a figure that is doing the rounds: a little overabout 3,000. Apparently, small groups of seven were assigned to carefully set upeach blast. Could all of them have fanned out without even a hint of officialpatronage, with zero collusion, connivance or tacit support? If that is possiblethen it would be tempting to conclude that the authorities are even less incontrol than was the belief a week ago. 

Could it all have been done by one group alone? The situation certainly opensup a lot of questions. But a week later, if the Bangladeshi leadership hasdevised a credible political strategy to counter the threat, it is certainlykeeping that a well-guarded secret. 

But from the lack of action against those even notionally responsible for thesecurity of the people, it would appear that the same political compulsions thatprevent Dhaka from admitting the presence of Islamic fundamentalists on its soilrestrain it similarly when it comes to taking punitive action, considering thecomposition of the government.

These are worrying signs, and not only for Bangladesh. There are over 64,000madrasas in Bangladesh, and the number is increasing. Some of these madrasas arebelieved to be harbouring extremists who have received training in places likeAfghanistan. When Musharraf sent out foreign "students" from Pakistanimadrasas, many hundreds were from Bangladesh.

Given the rise of the more extreme political parties, radicalisation isinevitable. With a long and somewhat porous border, implications for India arequite serious. This is compounded by New Delhi's alarming lack of leverage withDhaka.

It also does not bode well that coalition ministers make statements thatcannot be construed to be anything other than unfriendly and unhelpful tobilateral relations. The big question is: With the elections about a year away,how does Bangladesh stop ceding more political space to fundamentalists?