2017: An Unpredictable Year In Asian Strategy

2017 should be an interesting year in Asian geopolitics for multiple reasons.  One, Trump’s taking over in less than three weeks, two, China’s increasing aggressive behaviour, and third, Putin’s political ploys. 

Trump’s taking office on January 20, 2017 will have the most impact on Asian geopolitics because if Trump follows through his rhetoric, then we are looking at a serious conflict between the US and China that encompasses both trade and political and security issues.  Trump’s threat to dramatically escalate trade tariffs on Chinese products imported into the US may simply be a bargaining ploy but it suggests significant conflicts in the trade domain.  If Trump carries through his threat to increase tariff, the resulting trade war will have unpredictable consequences.  Both the US and China will suffer, as will all the export dependent economies in the Asia Pacific. 

The political consequences of a dramatic showdown of the Chinese economy is also highly unpredictable with the potential for China and the Chinese Communist Party to become even more nationalistic in its attitudes.  This will have dramatic consequences for the stability in the region.  Even in the absence of a trade war, there are other political and military problems that could lead to a face-off between China and the US.  Once Trump takes over, it is possible that the US will react much more sharply if for instance China indulges in the kind of aggressive acts that it has been undertaking over the last couple of years, capped by the stealing of the US Navy underwater drone.  Trump is also likely to use Taiwan and Tibet as bargaining chips against China which will also have unpredictable consequences.

One uncertainty is how Trump deals with the US allies in the region.  Japan, Australia, India, Vietnam, Singapore, are all countries worried about China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour and they have been disappointed by Obama’s reluctance to stand up to China.  They would be willing partners if the US under Trump wants to take a much more forthright position against Beijing but Trump does not appear to be keen on joining forces with American allies, many of whom he sees as free-riders.  If the United States wants to go it alone against China, that has both positive and negative consequences.  On the positive side, American allies can stay aloof from the US-China dispute while garnering the benefits of the China’s containment but on the downside, they will have little means to control US policy and prevent that policy from becoming unnecessarily exaggerated and leading to a war or serious tension with China. 

Second serious issue is China’s own behaviour.  China has benefitted enormously from the international liberal order and it has gotten rich by exploiting trade and market access.  It seems odd that China will attempt to undermine the very international order that helped it to rise but we have seen such behaviour from other great powers in the past.  China seems unwilling to enjoy the fruits of its own hard work and allow the natural course of events to make it the leader of Asia and potentially the world’s greatest power.  Beijing’s impatience has resulted in very unwise and militaristic policies towards its smaller neighbours driving them into the American camp.  China seems convinced that its smaller neighbours will have no choice but to settle with China’s dominance.  China still has a choice of modifying its behaviour and giving greater leeway to its neighbours but China’s strategic impatience could ultimately undermine its own power and the dominance it seeks.  This is foolish strategic behaviour but China seems unable to see its own foolishness. 

A third uncertainty is Putin’s strategic footwork.  He has been extremely nimble over the last year, playing his few cards extremely well.  It is unclear where Putin will stand if the US and China get into a serious confrontation though there is no love lost between the US and Russia.  This had more to do with the US and the West’s reluctance to satisfy Russian security concerns in central Europe, even if some of these concerns are exaggerated.  If Trump decides to abandon central Europe and give Putin the space he needs, there is a possibility that Putin will either stay neutral in a confrontation in Asia or even possibly side with Trump.  Putin’s concerns are not in the Asia Pacific but more along his western borders.  But it is unclear how much Trump will be willing to put in.  If Putin overplays his card, then there could be a dramatic reversal in Trump’s view of Putin. 

All of these points at this stage are uncertain.  A lot depends on Trump’s personal attitudes and some will depend on whether China becomes more pragmatic than it has been so far.  All of this makes 2017 an unpredictable and possibly dangerous year.