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India’s Growth Projection Story – What Lies Ahead?

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India’s Growth Projection Story – What Lies Ahead?
Rajat Mishra - 04 May 2020

New Delhi: When the economic activities are brought to a sudden halt, and it seems that everyone is scrambling to save people and livelihood. Thus, when everyone is thinking about what course the Indian economy will take in future and how can it be brought back on track. Many credit rating agencies are projecting about India’s possible growth rate in future after this pandemic. In past few days many credit rating agencies have projected growth rates of India, which has been put under severe lockdown till May 3.

Let’s take a look

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra)

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) few days back revised its economic growth forecast for FY21 to 1.9 per cent which is one of the lowest in the last 29 years, thanks to Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on economy. The rating agency said that the revised number is based on the assumption that the partial lockdown will continue till mid-May. It also projected GDP growth to slipping down further to negative 2.1 per cent if the lockdown continues beyond mid-May. The last time India recorded such low growth figures was way back in FY92 post the balance of payments crisis. GDP growth was as low as 1.1 per cent.

Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday slashed India growth forecast for 2020 to 0.2 per cent, from 2.5 per cent projected in March. For 2021, Moody’s expects India’s growth to rebound to 6.2 per cent. In its report titled – Global Macro Outlook 2020-21 (April 2020 update), Moody’s has lowered G-20 advanced economies as a group to contract by 5.8 per cent in 2020. Moody’s said the economic costs of coronavirus crisis amid the near shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly.

Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings has also slashed India’s economic growth projections to 0.8 per cent in the current 2020-21 fiscal on the account of disruptions caused by the outbreak of pandemic and resultant lockdown.

For that we will have to wait and watch till May 3 when the final exit plan about the lockdown will be unveiled by the government. Till then, lets all continue to maintain social distance and help flatten the curve.

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