National

Which Way The Wave?

Modi isn't the central figure of '02, but is better off than in '04

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Which Way The Wave?
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Head Turner: The PM in Surat on December 7

The final phase of the polls, slated for December 16, is in the remaining 96 seats of north and central Gujarat: it was in the latter's 49 seats that the Congress suffered its biggest losses in 2002, dipping from the 28 it won in 1998 to seven in 2002, as this was the epicentre of the anti-Muslim violence, and where the BJP advanced from 16 to 42. Interestingly, in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, this was the area where the Congress regained its equilibrium, winning 34 assembly segments, while the BJP plummeted to 15. If the situation in Saurashtra and south Gujarat remained largely unchanged in 2004, north Gujarat also witnessed a major change—the Congress went from 14 in 2002 to 24; the BJP from 32 to 23.

So what can we expect in 2007? The election may have no singular issue, and Modi may not be as invincible as he was in 2002. But he is certainly a more important factor this year than he was in the Lok Sabha poll of 2004. The tribals who at the start of the campaign were upset with the Congress for not notifying the Forest Rights Act, 2006, may now be mollified given the central government's promise to notify the rules in January. Equally, Modi's overtly communal campaign could paper over the cracks in the parivar and help him scrape through.

So confused have been those considered the most accurate pollsters—the satta bazaar and intelligence sources—that they've even predicted both parties falling short of the halfway mark, leaving the balance in the hands of independents. But given the pragmatism of the average Gujarati—regardless of caste or religious denomination—will it finally be a vote for stability? Only the results on December 23 will tell.

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