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The Burden Of Expectations

The state welcomes the Mufti as CM but can he deliver on all that he has promised? <a href=pti_coverage.asp?gid=271>More Coverage </a>

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The Burden Of Expectations
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As the compound wall of his Nowgam residence, on the outskirts of Srinagar, gave way to the surging crowds that had turned out to welcome him, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was left in little doubt that his being chosen the chief minister of the beleaguered state had struck a chord with the people of Kashmir. Here at last, it seemed, was the man they could trust. The leader who would provide the much-needed healing touch. Having successfully negotiated both the post of chief minister and a common minimum programme (CMP) with his principal ally, the Congress, a hero's welcome awaited the Mufti on his return from New Delhi.

Says Jehangir Khan, a college student and a first-time voter, "The Mufti becoming chief minister is a great step forward. All of us in the Valley expect a lot from him. What Kashmir needs now is good governance. And Mufti sahib will not let us down." It is this kind of faith in the Mufti that is worrying some of his party leaders. Will he be able to live up to the expectations?

His party workers and supporters are upbeat. The Mufti knows that if his People's Democratic Party (PDP) can deliver, then it can carve out a permanent niche as a truly regional political party that has the common Kashmiri's problems close to its heart.

But even as he steps into the chief minister's shoes, the PDP leader could well be donning the proverbial crown of thorns as well. His biggest selling point during the elections, the PDP manifesto, runs the risk of becoming his biggest liability as chief minister. Admits a PDP leader, "During an election, one can make promises. But once in power, other factors come into play. Mufti sahib's greatest test comes now. If he delivers, then we will establish ourselves as a force in the Valley."

On the Mufti's list are some promises he may find difficult to keep. His predicament was summed up by none other than the outgoing chief minister and the PDP's arch-rival, Farooq Abdullah. "I really wish him good luck. He has to scrap POTA, release prisoners, bring separatists to the table, disband the Special Operations Group (SOG) and act as a nurse, which is much easier said than done."

The Mufti knows only too well that it would require much more than the goodwill of his people to implement all this. His political experience notwithstanding, the PDP leader needs luck to fulfil his formidable agenda. In fact, his tight-rope walk started much before he took charge of the steering-wheel of governance.

Abdullah's broad swipe apart, the Mufti knows that he has to get down to business in right earnest, carrying along with him his coalition partners, particularly the Congress. At the top of his task list is to put the SOG, the counter-insurgency arm of the state police, on a leash. From the PDP's earlier promise of winding up this crack anti-terrorist force, the CMP now talks of assimilating the SOG within the regular police establishment. Though both the army and the bsf have said that disbanding the SOG would weaken counter-insurgency operations in the state, the new government realises that it has to rein in the force which enjoys the dubious distinction of having the highest number of human rights violation complaints levelled against it.

Points out rights activist Ahmad Rather, "Do you know that 80 per cent of the complaints with the state's human rights commission are against the SOG, which is virtually a law unto itself?" The complaints range from custodial killings, disappearances and extortion to forcible occupation of civilian property. The 1,500-strong SOG has, in the eyes of people, also become a symbol of state terror. Says Imran Rahi, a shopkeeper in Srinagar, "This 'special oppression group' has to go. The PDP promised us that they will end the killings and harassment."

The new government's decision to review the cases of the detenus languishing in jail will also go down well with the people. So too will the scrapping of POTA. So far, 426 persons have been charged under POTA. JKLF chief Yasin Malik, who was earlier booked under POTA, has now been charged under the Public Safety Act. Providing relief to families of civilians killed in militant violence is another pressing issue before the government. It was also part of the PDP's election promise.

But even more difficult will be the task of persuading separatist outfits that dialogue is the only way out of the present impasse. As chief minister of the state, the Mufti's authority could be cramped by the coalition he heads.

That's because the Congress, which has a centrist agenda and its eyes set much beyond Kashmir, could sooner than later become the stumbling block for the ambitious pro-Kashmir agenda of the PDP. Then there is the impatience of other smaller alliance partners, for whom getting a ministerial berth is more important than any electoral commitment. In addition, the ground realities themselves could pose problems in translating the CMP into action.

But the most crucial factor which is being hotly debated is whether the level of separatist violence will lessen in the coming days. If cross-border intrusions increase and militant violence registers an upward trend, the new chief minister would be under tremendous pressure to toughen his stand against militancy. Also, the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which gives sweeping powers to the army and the paramilitary forces, is likely to present itself as a serious challenge to the Mufti's healing-touch approach. The collateral damage to civilian life and property which is commonplace during encounters between the security forces and the militants could be another albatross around the new government's neck.

During the six-year tenure of the National Conference (NC), collateral damage, especially in the rural areas, was considerable and earned the government much ill will. As the ruling party, it was virtually impossible for the NC to absolve itself.

The Mufti could also find himself in the same plight as Abdullah. Asks a political observer in Srinagar: "What happens if a house is destroyed by the army while flushing out militants in the Mufti's hometown, Bijbehara? Will he accept it as an unavoidable fallout of separatist violence or take on the security forces?"

Other basic questions remain. What will the chief minister do to boost the morale of the local police should it find itself at the receiving end? Senior police officials told Outlook that despite allegations against the SOG, it was effective in containing local and foreign militancy. The state police chief, A.K. Suri, is on record saying that SOG's role in fighting militancy was "pioneering". Points out a senior police official, "It must also be remembered that the state police literally came back from the brink during the NC rule and started taking on the militants in operations and encounters. Should the SOG be sent back to the barracks, local policemen would then become targets of the militants."

These are some of the inbuilt contradictions, answers to which the PDP may take time in finding as it prepares to rule. There is no doubt that the Mufti and his party enjoy considerable goodwill in the Hurriyat because of his stand that violence is no solution to the Kashmir crisis. But once the security forces are contained, would it be matched by a proportionate decrease in separatist violence? The PDP could afford to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds as long as it wasn't in power.

But now that it holds the reins of the government, it may have to do some rethinking.The priorities of political parties don't always remain constant when they are in power. Given his lofty commitments and the inherent compulsions of leading a multi-party alliance, few would envy the Mufti for having come to power in Kashmir at such a crucial juncture in the history of the state. Old political realities have melted in the crucible of violence and newer ones have emerged. Does this mean Kashmir is in for better times? Right now, even Mufti sahib may not have an answer.

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