National

Players On The Board

The BJP leadership fight is out in the open again. Jaitley and Sushma circle each other.

Advertisement

Players On The Board
info_icon

The Camps

Jaitley Supporters:

  • The Sangh parivar
  • Venkaiah Naidu, former party president
  • L.K. Advani
  • Nitin Gadkari, party president
  • Narendra Modi, Gujarat CM
  • P.K. Dhumal, Himachal Pradesh CM
  • Ananth Kumar, Karnataka leader
  • Nitish Kumar, JD(U) leader and Bihar CM lThe Badals

Sushma Supporters:

  • L.K. Advani
  • Rajnath Singh, former party president
  • Shivraj Singh Chauhan, MP CM
  • S.S. Ahluwalia, vociferous RS MP
  • Sudhanshu Mittal, BJP moneybags

Advertisement

***

There are a few things a chess player knows. One, the opening tactic quite often determines how the pieces—yours and your opponent’s—move on the square, checkered board. Two, you can’t expect that to hold good always. Sushma Swaraj made the first move—or, if you don’t discount her ‘thousand cuts’ version of the story, call it retaliation. Anyway, Sushma’s flash attack blindsided colleague Arun Jaitley by fixing responsibility on him for “favouring the Reddy brothers in Karnataka”. Her statement not only reinforced the perception of a cold war between her and Jaitley, it’s again catalysed the unspoken race between party leaders for the top slot.

Advertisement

Talk to BJP veterans and they admit “the race for the top job has begun. And this time it’s out in the open”. After the initial tame reactions from party president Nitin Gadkari (almost ticking off Sushma over the Bellary brothers issue) and his predecessor Rajnath Singh—who came out in her support—partymen say “there is almost a sense of glee among party leaders, no matter what they say in public”. As one senior leader admitted, “When two senior leaders fight like this, it translates into a chance for the others to benefit from it.”

The BJP leadership should know it from experience. This is what happened in late 2009 when they could not come up with a consensus candidate for party president. Nitin Gadkari, a wild card entry, got the top post then. The 2014 Lok Sabha polls could see a repeat of that.

Much as the BJP takes pride in calling itself a truly democratic party with no one single leader as the final authority, insiders explain the pickle: “It’s too many leaders at the same level within the party set-up”. The issue has plagued the BJP for a while now, and logic dictates that it’s not going away anywhere. Rather, as this second generation comes to full maturation, and as 2014 nears, it can only intensify—barring some sort of diplomatic coup. It started in 2009 when the BJP projected veteran L.K. Advani as its prime ministerial candidate. While it lost the polls, a near-fatal blow was dealt to Advani himself who started losing ground and support within the party. Till then, the Atal-Advani balance had worked well for the party.

Advertisement

Fresh into this orphaned phase, December 2009 brought up the need to elect a new party chief. A consensus candidate to replace the outgoing Rajnath proved elusive. So the RSS brought in its own man, hoping to get a tighter rein on party affairs. To placate the Delhi leadership, Advani’s proteges Jaitley and Sushma were given plum posts in Parliament, as Leaders of the Opposition in the two houses. This in a sense reflected the new, tacit hierarchy within the party. Working through the tested formula of ‘selection through elimination’, the party had whittled down the once powerful D4 or Delhi-4 group—Venkaiah Naidu, Ananth Kumar, Jaitley and Sushma. Insiders confirm the party is now split into just two camps: Jaitley’s and Sushma’s. The system worked well for a while. But the potential for mischief lurks, and a troubled denouement has only begun to play out.

Advertisement

One variable is how the other second-rung leaders pitch themselves. Naidu, for instance, has gained little over the years. Partymen mostly describe him as a “motormouth” who hasn’t even managed a serious presence for the BJP in his home-state Andhra Pradesh. He is a Jaitley loyalist, who has in private described him as “my first and only guardian ever in Delhi when I first came to this city”.

The other factor is the rise of state satraps who, having played a crucial role in putting the numbers together for a foray into national politics, have no reason to sit back and watch others play the game. Leaders like Narendra Modi, B.S. Yediyurappa, Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and even NDA leaders like Nitish Kumar have gained prominence. They could upset the apple-cart for Jaitley and Sushma in 2014, say insiders.

Advertisement

info_icon


Reddy brothers. (Photograph by Sanjay Rawat)

That said, even among the duo, the balance for now “tilts in favour of Jaitley” (with the caveat that three years is a long time in politics). This is despite the criticism within the party that he’s yet to prove his credentials in electoral politics. He has never contested an election, leave alone won one. His critics say Jaitley, despite his TV-friendly image, is yet to establish himself. Those in his favour cite his “more or less clean image”. He also has a large number of “friends within the party”.

Which is what Sushma lacks despite her spectacular electoral triumphs over the years. Insiders say even as “Sushma projects she is popular and more acceptable with people outside the BJP and that this should work to her advantage, the fact is if an NDA coalition is put in place today, her only friends in the BJP would be S.S. Ahluwalia and Rajnath”. And new entrant Karnataka CM Yediyurappa, after her recent take on the Reddy brothers.

Sushma’s effort to distance herself from the Reddy chapter was also about apportioning the blame for their growth in the party. She apparently feels that when everyone has benefited from the Reddys, why should she be the only one to take the blame. She also knows the Supreme Court, CBI and ED are closing in on the Reddys, which could spell trouble for her. There’s also a view in the party that Sushma has made too many ‘sinful’ mistakes “to mar her own rise”. Explains one leader, “Sushma could have easily walked away with the whole credit in the CVC issue. Instead, she lost the opportunity by going soft on the prime minister. After his statement in Parliament, Sushma was far from aggressive. You can’t be the face of the agitation against the government on corruption and then go soft on the PM.”

Advertisement

That apart, there is a feeling that the central leadership in Delhi is full of ‘manipulative netas’ and not ‘mass leaders’; that the high command is weak because it is filled with ‘networking politicians’ who have no mass base. Reason enough why leaders like Modi, Yediyurappa, Vasundhararaje, Sushil Modi, Raman Singh, Gopinath Munde and Manohar Parikkar among others, have been kept out of the party’s decision-making process.

If the RSS is to be believed, these are “minor problems”. A senior functionary explains, “A lot depends on the UP polls of 2012. That will define the road ahead. Gujarat also comes up for polls in 2012. If Modi sweeps again, the only hurdle for him is his legal problems in the riots case. What also needs to be watched is who becomes BJP chief after Gadkari. He was brought in to put the house in order, but the next president will have to take the BJP into the LS polls and attempt a victory.” Till such time, the ghost of succession will continue to haunt the BJP.

Advertisement

By Prarthna Gahilote and Sugata Srinivasaraju

Tags

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement