National

Pillion On The Bicycle

The SP was first off the block, but it may need the Congress to stave off a saffron patchwork

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Pillion On The Bicycle
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Haidergarh in Barabanki has acquired a new sheen. And among the many things that have sprouted from its soil recently, besides the freshly laid out roads, is a four-page broadsheet, Haidergarh ki Baat. The paper is star contestant chief minister Rajnath Singh's personal mouthpiece. And true to its calling, it publishes every single statement made by him. Besides, of course, dwelling on the bright poll prospects of the bjp. Denizens of this town are optimistic. They say Rajnath's stepping into chief ministerial shoes almost a year ago has changed their fortunes. The same, they say, holds true for the party which he represents.

This should certainly provide the incumbent bjp with some good cheer, because had it not been for Rajnath's 'tough and competent' image, the bjp would have suffered a crushing defeat. The CM has managed to fight off an absolute rout that even saffronites were predicting till a few months ago. But has he stepped in too late and done too little? In an election expected to go down to the wire, he is up against the formidable Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and the unpredictable fortunes of Bahujan Samaj Party's Mayawati. And now Congress leaders are drawing larger crowds than most others, and suddenly the battle for UP has become an even murkier quagmire for electoral star gazers.

Most poll surveys have been predicting a comfortable lead for SP candidates and the ground situation, particularly in rural UP, backs this forecast rather well. But who will form the next government? This is still a question full of imponderables. Analysts are predicting two scenarios: SP as the single-largest party with support from the Congress and the predictable defectors from other parties reaches the magic figure of 200 plus. Or, the bjp joins hands with the bsp along with 'others' to achieve the desired numbers. But all the concerned parties deny the possibility of such post-poll entente.

A couple of key questions that may decide the final outcome is will the Muslims go in for tactical voting? Will a split in the Muslim vote help the bjp? Says Congress veteran Mohsina Kidwai in Barabanki: "It's for all secular parties to decide that. It's difficult to say whether there is going to be tactical voting, but the Muslim vote is undoubtedly split. In an assembly election where margins could range from a few hundreds to a few thousands, a split like this could well decide who the new boss of the Lucknow secretariat would be."

Meanwhile, a no-holds-barred campaign with filmstars, poets and sundry entertainers is in full swing. In Hardoi's Sandila constituency, for instance, the SP has an ardent fan in Malang Mustafa Rasool in his all green Sufi tunic. As if to dispel the notion that the party represents Muslims and backwards only, the malang is joined by a pujari. Together, they have composed a paean to son-of-the-soil Mulayam.

The scene is pretty much the same elsewhere. The Lucknow-Ayodhya highway as well as the Faizabad-Bahraich road is littered with roadside stalls which have bicycles (the SP symbol) strapped firmly to lamp posts, shops and factories. The SP campaign, which was already in overdrive much before the others set off, has ensured that all through the state, millions of bicycles were distributed free of cost to anyone who wished to display them. And apparently there have been many takers. It is very clear that Mulayam's campaign has penetrated deep into the interiors. Already, the SP chief has reportedly covered the state twice over and by the time the elections are through he would have touched virtually every district and sub-division. For a state the size of UP, it calls for Herculean stamina and that is perhaps his main asset.

Lagging behind the SP campaign is the one launched rather late by the bjp.After much infighting and differences among its workers and within the Sangh parivar, the party has now finally got into the act. Local rss cadre are doing the rounds, in addition to the 500 rss 'poll specialists' who have been brought in from Madhya Pradesh to fan out into the hinterland. And to really make these efforts worth their while, former party chief Kushabhau Thakre has been touring the state to assess the public mood and give tips on how to capitalise on the party's strengths.

But what the bjp is really banking on is the Rajnath factor. The incumbent CM is seen as representing the powerful Thakurs who, despite Amar Singh's presence in the SP ranks, may well opt for the bjp. And their strength may lie not just in casting their own votes but influencing other communities around them. As for the Ram temple, it is not being seen as a serious poll issue.

The Congress too is pulling out all stops. Literally, every one of its leaders is in the state. Digvijay Singh, Arjun Singh and even ally Laloo Prasad Yadav have been roped in. Sonia Gandhi's rallies have been well attended. State leaders like Pramod Tiwari predict a far better showing for the Congress and say that their voteshare is going to go up. How much that translates into seats is anybody's guess.

The bsp's 'underground campaign' is as elusive as its leader. There are no interviews, no press briefings, no excitement over poll-survey findings and no spirited resolutions. Despite the charges that the bsp may ultimately tie up with the bjp, Mayawati's massive Dalit support remains intact.

The leitmotif of Mayawati's campaign is the singular emphasis on caste configurations. At a rally in Gonda, she reels off the number of castes which will support her and an American journalist covering the rally is utterly bewildered by the taxonomy.

With western UP and Rohilkhand having already gone to the polls and the battle for eastern and central UP in its last round, the question is whether there will be a clear winner. As for the people, they are certain that it will be horse-trading which will finally settle the question.

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