National

His Second Phase

From Gujarat to Goa, it's a different A.B. Vajpayee. He promises the allies one thing, but does another.

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His Second Phase
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Like the mythological Janus, Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee has for decades sported two public faces—one of a moderate for the benefit of the media and his secular allies, and the second of a hardcore swayamsevak to keep the Sangh parivar happy. At the BJP conclave in Goa, the mask slipped. The commitment to "rajdharma" or justice for all, expounded upon barely two weeks ago in Ahmedabad, was a fairly distant memory in Panaji. The charge of the Opposition parties and even some anti-Vajpayee politicians within the parivar—like that of party ideologue Govindacharya—that the prime minister was just a liberal mask for a larger saffron agenda and a cover for the less palatable activities of the Sangh parivar organs seemed to ring true.

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When Vajpayee, in defence of Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, made statements like "if innocent people had not been burnt alive (in Godhra), the tragedy in Gujarat could have been averted" and described Islam (as practised today) as being run with the help of jehadis, it was, if anything, a confirmation of what he actually stood for. During the course of the speech, Vajpayee spoke of countries with Muslim populations and the fears of the local leaders there about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism. While all this could have passed off as opinionated theorising in better times, in the Gujarat context it appeared unbecoming of a man who was prime minister and leader of a multi-party coalition which had promised to keep all contentious issues aside.

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There was more. The offensive phalanx that senior BJP leaders set up for the beleaguered Modi in Goa, which brazenly ignored the growing national demand for his sacking, confirmed that what were so far being described as the ‘fringe’ elements in the Sangh pantheon were now more centrestage than before. Worse, the BJP meet advised Modi to go in for a snap poll "to let the people decide", an oblique reference to making use of the "Hindu consolidation" of votes. How 8 to 10 per cent Muslims could decisively determine the fate of a political party in Gujarat remained largely unexplained, particularly in the light of poll reverses that the BJP faced in the state’s panchayat elections last year.

In his tenure as prime minister for over three years over two consecutive terms, and a long innings as a parliamentarian, Vajpayee has never been under such sustained attack. And for the first time it’s personal. "We never differentiated between Vajpayee and the rest of the saffronists. They are all the same. In the aftermath of the terrible poll debacles in UP and elsewhere, the BJP is doing what it knows best—organising communal polarisation. Vajpayee is just presiding over it," says CPI (M) leader Somnath Chatterjee.

Post-Goa, when Parliament reopened after recess, the heat on the government only turned fiercer with no business being conducted owing to frequent adjournments. Politicians across the board—including the allies—have been demanding Modi’s scalp and the government came to the verge of collapse when key ally Chandrababu Naidu joined the chorus. But the BJP went half-way to assuage Naidu when Modi declared that "holding elections was not a priority for the state government and restoring normalcy was the need of the hour". It came as a breather for the Andhra chief minister but it left the RSS unappeased. Taking a hard view, RSS spokesman M.G. Vaidya said: "It is the prerogative of the BJP to decide who will be the chief minister of its party ruling a particular state," adding that the allies were "crossing all limits" in demanding Modi’s ouster.

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But the TDP now isn’t the only one. The latest to join the oust-Modi campaign is J. Jayalalitha, whose support the BJP was hitherto taking for granted were the issue to be put to vote. Key NDA allies are getting increasingly uncomfortable with the VHP brand of politics being promoted currently. J&K chief minister Farooq Abdullah is holding a conclave of all non-BJP parties to formulate a common stand on Gujarat. As the list of Modi’s detractors grows, the government is finding its position at variance even with its partners, forget the Opposition. Political parties are demanding a parliamentary debate on Gujarat under Section 184, which entails a vote on the motion. The government, understandably, is trying to resist it tooth and nail.

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Of course, any change of government in the current Lok Sabha seems difficult, given the disparate backgrounds and regional rivalries that abound. The government seems to be on safe ground in the absence of any Congress enthusiasm for either pulling down the Vajpayee government or propping up an alternative puppet United/People’s Front candidate. At a meeting of party leaders held last week, Congress president Sonia Gandhi made it clear that she was not interested. Instead, Congress strategists think it a better idea for the NDA government to last out its term and then cash in on anti-incumbency. Right now, they do not even have the requisite numbers to form an alternative. Despite talk of some NDA allies wanting out, actually quitting the coalition and surviving at the mercy of the Congress means too high a price for these parties. And they are not willing to pay it just yet. It hasn’t, however, stopped BJP leaders from realising that Gujarat is becoming a millstone around the party’s neck. And the way they deal with it in the days to come will determine the longevity of the government.

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For, if Vajpayee’s flip-flop on issues earlier has been a source of intense speculation, his verbal gymnastics on Gujarat have acquired a new hue. It didn’t surprise a veteran Atal-watcher like the Congress’ S. Jaipal Reddy, who has always maintained that Vajpayee’s moderate face is a mask. Granted, the drama in Goa was scripted by Modi & Friends, but it could not have gone the way it did had the PM repeated what he had said in Ahmedabad a fortnight earlier—that the carnage in Gujarat was a blot on the nation’s image and he didn’t know "with what face" he could go abroad.

Pointedly parroting Vajpayee, Naidu told defence minister George Fernandes last week—when the latter was urging him to meet the PM and sort out the Gujarat tangle—that he did not know "with what face" to come to the capital. The atmosphere was surcharged, with demonstrations being held daily at Andhra Bhawan and the resident commissioner being bombarded with petitions pleading withdrawal of support to the government.

Naidu has no desire to destabilise the current dispensation but he is deeply unhappy because he feels he was deliberately misled by Vajpayee’s advisors. His equation with the PM himself hasn’t suffered—Vajpayee called to thank him after he deferred a decision on withdrawal of support—but that hasn’t lessened his sense of being used. The only reason why he demanded Modi’s head was because he was led to believe that Modi would be asked to quit and he could then take the credit for having initiated the Gujarat CM’s ouster.

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But Goa belied all of Naidu’s expectations. On April 12, the BJP’s national executive began at 4.30 pm, with a discussion on Gujarat scheduled only for the next day. Modi, however, in accordance with a plan worked out a day earlier, spoke immediately after the party president’s address and offered to quit, taking the delegates by surprise. Those protesting that the matter be discussed later or that the resignation be accepted were shouted down by Modi’s supporters. One delegate said if the matter wasn’t discussed immediately, Gujarat would burn that very night. Later that evening, Vajpayee, as if bowing to the inevitable, said the resolution decided on Gujarat was that "Modi’s resignation be accepted and under his leadership, fresh elections be held".

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It was the affirmation that elections be held under Modi’s leadership that annoyed the moderates in the party. "We should just have said Modi’s resignation was accepted and a fresh election would be held and left it at that," said a senior party functionary. But Modi and Co were pursuing a different gameplan. Seizing the initiative and railroading a resolution endorsing Modi’s leadership was only part of it. According to a Union cabinet minister, the idea was that when tempers cooled, the question of elections would be dropped—as if in response to the allies’ demand. That’s exactly what happened in Ahmedabad, when the Gujarat cabinet met but failed to mention elections. The Opposition and NDA allies found themselves back to square one, demanding that Modi quit.

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The key question Goa has triggered is whether the BJP has returned to its core agenda of Hindutva. Party sources say Vajpayee is under tremendous pressure from partymen—particularly the hardliners—to adopt a more proactive approach towards "core" issues. Reverses in the recent assembly elections are touted as proof that the party is seen as losing its original moorings. While the liberal posturing may have won Vajpayee and party the last two elections and a lot of goodwill, the diminishing electoral returns seem to indicate the Vajpayee magic is working no more. Hence, it’s "back to the basics".

Home minister L.K. Advani seems to be a key factor in it. There are enough noises emanating from the BJP, particularly its MPs, that Advani is the man to lead the party. Said one BJP MP: "The BJP has reached its pre-eminence today because of Advani. But in the larger scheme of things, he has been marginalised. That needs to be corrected." And pointers are the party is proceeding in that direction—with active assistance from the RSS. Shyam Khosla, an RSS pracharak and a former bureau chief of The Tribune newspaper, has argued in a signed article that Vajpayee, given his stature and liberal image, be moved to Rashtrapati Bhavan and Advani take over as prime minister. As for the allies, argued Khosla, where can they go?

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A number of the younger party MPs feel that to staunch the reverses that the party has been suffering of late, the home minister needs a larger role than he has had till now. In Goa, Advani in an unprecedented step made announcements about an impending cabinet reshuffle. While that may or may not eventually happen, decisions on the cabinet are normally a prime ministerial prerogative. Says BJP leader J.P. Mathur: "It goes without saying that Advani is going to be more than welcome to lead the party."

For the moment though, it’s Naidu who the NDA has to keep in good humour. There is almost a sense of urgency in the government about bringing Naidu around (George Fernandes has been calling him up repeatedly over the last week). May 13 is the 50th anniversary of the first sitting of the first Lok Sabha. The celebrations cannot be held without a speaker being installed. Vajpayee would like to see tdp parliamentary party leader K. Yerran Naidu in the chair. But Naidu hasn’t made up his mind yet.

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And for him to do so, a face-saver has to be found, and soon. The Modi issue has to be thrashed out in Parliament, with or without a vote at the end of it. Especially with the Opposition in no mood to let the Modi controversy peter out. So will Vajpayee don his moderate face yet again, to bring his allies around?

Ranjit Bhushan and Bhavdeep Kang

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