Making A Difference

Hindi-Chini Bye Bye?

The Indo-US cosying up may have an equal and opposite spinoff: China-Pak bonding

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Hindi-Chini Bye Bye?
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Except for the March 18 edition of the popular Beijing Youth Daily reproducing the Outlook cover of Bill Clinton in a sherwani, the US president’s visit to India evoked little interest in the Chinese media. It failed to make it to the front pages, and when the rest of the world’s TV screens were full of his arrival in the subcontinent, there was not even a mention on Chinese television newscasts.

As the Indian media turn cartwheels over the supposed US endorsement of New Delhi’s position on Kashmir etc, China watchers in the capital are worried. Is the US using India as a foil against China? And will China, in turn, step up nuclear and military cooperation with Pakistan?

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"China will be terribly concerned. Better Indo-US ties can work against their interests," says Dr K.N. Ramachandran, an independent analyst formerly of the IDSA. "Even before the visit, the number 2 at the Chinese embassy in Washington wrote a letter to Clinton, asking him to pressure India on the CTBT and to cap its N-programme," he says. "That hasn’t worked out, and they’ll be disappointed. Clinton’s CTBT statement isn’t very high-pitched, he has noted it, but not gone hammer and tongs over it. I suppose the Indian lobby has done a decent job..."

In Beijing, foreign ministry spokesperson Sun Yuxi put it diplomatically at a press conference: "China hopes Clinton’s visit will play a positive role in promoting regional peace and stability". Asked about the massacre of Sikhs by militants in Kashmir, he deftly sidestepped the question. China is clearly unwilling to offend its ally Pakistan by condemning terrorist incidents in Kashmir. But the Chinese media wasted no time in highlighting Pakistani propaganda that the killings "were perpetrated by Indian security forces".

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And while the India visit was given a complete go-by, the People’s Daily on March 9 did put Clinton’s decision to visit Pakistan on its front page. In fact, the Chinese media have treated Clinton’s visit to India and Pakistan at par, indeed dwelt more on his Islamabad schedule.

China Daily, Beijing’s sole English daily, on March 23 quoted Riaz H. Khokhar, Pakistan’s ambassador to China, that "the good neighbourly relations between Pakistan and China have withstood the test of time and are ‘pivotal’ for regional/global peace and stability."

Lending another perspective, Dr Shanta Nedungadi-Verma, assistant professor of political science, Delhi University, says: "China will be more wary about transferring its technology for weapons of mass destruction to Pakistan. And now, with the US and India cosying up, and with India being an N-power, Beijing wouldn’t like to antagonise India beyond a certain point."

Also, she adds, "Beijing would be watching the developments here with a lot of interest. As far as expanding its ties with Pakistan are concerned, the Chinese are far too pragmatic."

As for now, China seems more concerned about its own economy, and issues like Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, where the threat of Pakistani and Afghan Islamist militants looms large. Giri Deshingkar, senior fellow at CSDs and the Institute for Chinese Studies, says he doesn’t see "any particular anxiety on Beijing’s part" about the visit. "I’m sure the Americans will brief them about it, just like they were about the Talbott-Jaswant talks. And publicly they’ve welcomed it".

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Only, "they’re curious, since there’s been loose talk about two democracies getting together in order to stand up to non-democratic China. " China, he feels, is suspicious of possible US endorsement of India’s "minimum deterrent" plans, and is trying to keep the US on the straight and narrow by reminding it of UN resolution no. 1172, which calls for a cap of India’s N-programme. If, however, Beijing finds the US breaking ranks, "it’s fully prepared to accept India as a de facto N-power," adds Deshingkar. As for Pakistan, "Beijing knows the Pakistani tail can wag the Chinese dog, and they don’t want that. So they can be unhappy about it and hope for the best."

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