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Cracking The Cowbelt

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Cracking The Cowbelt
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WHAT should a party which won 83 out of 85 parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 1984 elections do when faced with a total rout in the 1998 general elections? At the AICC special session in New Delhi, Sharad Pawar hazarded some answers. He said Congressmen should start at the grassroots, "get out of Delhi, Mumbai and other metros and fan out into smaller towns and villages if the party is to be saved". Underlining the critical need for such an effort, he warned: "We have won Maharashtra, Rajasthan,Assam and Andhra. But if we cannot win UP and Bihar, we will permanently be in the opposition."

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Sushil Shinde, an AICC member heading a four-member team to Uttar Pradesh to assess the political disaster, echoed the urgency advocated by Pawar. Based on interviews with irate local leaders, Shinde told journalists in Lucknow that there was immense resentment against the manner in which Congress affairs have been handled in recent years; that there was infighting at every level in the state Congress and that rampant casteism had only compounded its plight.

There is little doubt that organisat-ional changes are on the cards. Says an optimistic UPCC chief Jitendra Prasada: "We have a programme to revive the party and once Soniaji visits UP, we will implement it." But Congressmen in the state take a more sombre view. "We have tremendous hope in Soniaji," concedes party spokesman in Lucknow Ramesh Dixit. "But the key is to appoint persons on the PCCs who have roots." The names doing the rounds are Salman Khurshid or Khan Gufran Zahidi—if a member of the minority community is to be appointed—and local Congressmen like Arun  Kumar Singh, Surinder Awasthi and Sujan Singh Bundela.

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In Bihar, where the Congress got five parliamentary seats, thanks to an alliance with Laloo Yadav, the party is a pale third force. The political space vacated by it in 1989 has been occupied by the RJD and the BJP-Samata combine. State Congress chief Sarfaraz Ahmed has been no more than a by-stander in the faction-ridden party, and even if a new president is appointed, the Congress' chances of taking on Laloo and the BJP-Samata—Sonia has ruled out alliances—are bleak. Among the frontrunners to step into Ahmed's shoes is Kesri loyalist Tariq Anwar. But at this stage, all this is in the realm of speculation.

Still, Congressmen voice immense faith in Sonia's vote-getting ability. Ramashray Singh, an AICC delegate from Bihar, claims Sonia's forthcoming trip to the state would galvanise the party. "We have to appoint new members right through the organisation, at district and block levels," he adds. In other words, a complete overhaul is on the cards. Members of the Bihar Congress met Sonia after the AICC session and put forward their litany of grievances, which sources say, surprised even the Congress president. The question is, can Congressmen override their bitter differences?

Take the case of Madhya Pradesh. In their meeting with Sonia, Madhavrao Scindia and Arjun Singh lashed out at chief minister Digvijay Singh's administration for being responsible for the Congress defeat. According to a source, some members even demanded that he be sacked for the debacle. But Digvijay, an accomplished practitioner of the art of realpolitik, let it be known to Sonia that both Scindia and Arjun Singh, while making tall claims, had actually trailed the BJP in a majority of assembly segments in Gwalior and Hoshangabad, respectively. While Arjun was defeated, Scindia got away with a minuscule margin.

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This week Rajesh Pilot is expected to visit Bhopal to make an on-the-spot assessment. Digvijay, however, seems to have gotten away with organisational changes only. The current lot of state office-bearers like Urmila Singh and Manak Agrawal—both Sitaram Kesri appointees—are likely to be shown the door, sparking off a fresh round of offensive in which the replacements may well be decided by proximity to 10 Janpath.

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