National

Come, Dither

Jagan’s release shakes up political scenery

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Come, Dither
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Move The Pieces

  • Jagan’s release upsets equations for parties. His YSRC is for a united Andhra, may wipe out Cong, TDP in Seemandhra.
  • Naidu’s TDP sees options dwindling— despite the padayatra and bus yatra— due to wavering Telangana stand.
  • TDP may be falling back on “communal BJP”. Modi’s Hyderabad rally a pointer, but party’s Telangana unit is unhappy.

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After 484 days in jail, YSR Congress leader Jaganmohan Reddy walked out of jail, adding one more twist to politics in Andhra Pradesh. The top contender for the CM’s post in the 2014 polls, he cooled his heels in Chanchalguda jail for 16 months in an illegal assets case, but is now back in business. As soon as Jagan came out of jail, Congress spo­kesperson P.C. Chacko hinted unsubtly at a post-poll alliance, “Whe­ther one is in jail or outside, whether one is hostile or friendly, one will have to support the Congress rat­her than the BJP after elections.” 

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The Congress—in turmoil over the Telangana issue as intense agitations continue in Rayalaseema and the coastal region—lives in conflicted hope. As does everybody else. Telugu Desam president Chandrababu Naidu has been exercising his networking skills in Delhi, meeting various national leaders. His meeting with BJP president Rajnath Singh, however, is of special significance. A smiling Rajnath apparently told Naidu, “We need to work closely in the coming six months before the elections.”

Naidu, who stormed out of the Nat­i­o­nal Integration Council meet when he was not allowed to raise the Seem­an­dhra issue, used to shun all talk of an alliance with a “communal bjp”. But that was before Jagan’s rel­ease. Nare­ndra Modi praising the late N.T. Rama Rao and the TDP at his Hyderabad rally made rapprochement a little easier. Naidu’s brother-in-law, actor Bal­akrishna, also paid Modi a visit.

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Both the TDP and BJP have been quick to slam the bail to Jagan, saying it was match-fixing between Congress and the YSRC. BJP spokesperson Nirmala Sithar­aman says the CBI, under press­ure from the Congress, had put up little defence on the bail and was suddenly saying it had no evidence of quid pro quo in eight of the 10 chargesheets. 

The Congress’s decision on the vexed Telangana statehood made Jagan a natural leader of the ‘United Andhra’ camp. Of the 25 seats in Seemandhra, the YSR Congress is expecting a sweep of at least 18 while the TRS is hoping for a positive wave in its favour in at least 10 LS seats in Telangana. Perhaps why the BJP option looks more rosy now for the TDP. “Most Muslim and Christian votes are also going Jagan’s way, so there is no need for the TDP to put up this image of a secular front,” says a TDP leader from Vijayawada.

But not everyone, even in the BJP, is keen on them. Party leaders in Telang­ana fear it will be political suicide if the NDA takes the TDP’s support for a few seats. BJP MLA from Amberpet Kishen Reddy predicts that “the Telugu Desam will be a zero in Telangana and a zero in Seemandhra. Why should the BJP align with a losing party?” he asks.

During a media interaction just bef­ore he continued his bus yatra, Naidu told Outlook that the develop­ment in Gujarat was indeed comm­endable and on the same lines as his dreams for Andhra. But he fought shy of making a direct announcem­ent. Political scientist Prof G. Hara­g­opal says Naidu is clearly not wil­­l­ing to let go of the TDP’s hold in Telangana. “The TDP cadre base in Telangana is still strong and unlike Jagan who does not have much to lose there, Naidu does. Yet at heart, he wants a united Andhra Pradesh. This is causing all the confusion. The­refore, if Naidu wants any kind of political future, he needs to make a pitch at the national level,” he says.

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Meanwhile, there are other developments. Like the TRS, which had once called Jagan “the most corrupt politician in India”, now describing YSR Jr as a determined leader who had withst­ood difficulties in his political journey, the last comment coming straight from TRS chief K. Chandrasekhara Rao himself. KCR even predicted that Jagan will bag 140 assembly seats in Andhra and Rayalaseema in the 2014 elections.

The YSRC is possibly looking at stitching up as many alliances as possible, the latest target being APNGOS (Andhra Pradesh Non-gazetted officers) leader P. Ashok Babu, who is spearheading the Seeman­dhra agitation. If Jagan ropes him in and engineers further defecti­ons in the TDP, then Naidu will have to give up hope of any immediate resurgence in Seeman­dhra. Looks like his best hope now lies in foe-turned-friend BJP and Modi.

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