Making A Difference

Boiling Hotlines

Detente is nipped in the bud, stridency returns to Indo-Pak talks

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Boiling Hotlines
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IT was inevitable. Both sides have ducked back into their diplomatic trenches and have now restarted that old game of sending mixed signals across the border—where the only rule is that for every one step forward, there are two steps back. So what else is new? Newspapers in Pakistan carried blaring headlines last week attacking New Delhi. "India backing out of Kashmir talks," was the theme. And the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesman in New Delhi soon came out with a denial.

Through the familiar course of events, it was evident that the euphoria following the last round of foreign secretary-level talks simply has not lasted. Nor was it expected to. Said a senior Pakistan foreign office official: "All we had agreed during the second round was that a working group on Kashmir would be constituted, to be headed by the two foreign secretaries. This was seen as a great diplomatic coup by Pakistan, with the media blowing the issue out of proportion and the ruling party resorting to rhetoric." He explained that the first task for the two sides was to work out the modalities, and neither had a clue about where to begin.

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In Delhi, the MEA clarification was along formal lines. The spokesman referred to the joint statement issued at the end of the June talks. There, he said, a number of issues had been identified for discussion and a mechanism set out for future talks. Such a mechanism, he pointed out, had to be given concrete shape and the two sides were currently engaged in a discussion towards precisely that. He noted that some dates had been suggested to Pakistan for the next meeting and its response was awaited.

That no one, either in Islamabad or New Delhi, had done any homework on how to proceed once the Indians agreed to talk on Kashmir even at the time of the last round was pointed out by analysts in Pakistan. And this week even foreign minister Gohar Ayub realised that the process was stuck. He announced while leaving for Beijing: "I shall inform the Chinese on how India is trying to backtrack on the formation of the working group on Kashmir." This sentiment was echoed by a diplomat, who blamed the Indians, saying: "The Track One Gujral is quite different from the Track Two Gujral."

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 In Islamabad the impression is that Gujral is under pressure from his establishment, while in Delhi it is believed that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is once again under pressure from his establishment, but this time for different reasons. In Pakistan, Gujral is seen as a weak prime minister who has been forced to reiterate ad nauseam that Kashmir is an integral part of India on which there could be no dialogue.

Sharif, on his part, is being criticised for attempts to continue with the third round of talks. Benazir Bhutto's PPP and Qazi Hussain Ahmed's Jamaat-i-Islami are calling it the 'great betrayal'. In Parliament, Ben-azir ridiculed Sharif for his "mango diplomacy" which she says were actually "mango signals", a reference to Sharif's summer gift of mangoes to Indian politicians.

But South Block does not think Sharif would wriggle out of the talks, even though he has had to walk the tightrope and ensure that the army does not get too irritated with his overtures to India. There is a sense of deja vu over the statements emanating from Islamabad. At a more pragmatic level, it is realised in India that nothing much is likely to emerge from the talks.

The recent firing at the Line of Control has not helped either. With Sharif being unable to deliver on the economic and law and order fronts since he formed the government six months ago and the rumour mills already talking of a 'change', his line—"I like that man (Gujral)"—has changed. "On the one hand, the Indian government invites us for a dialogue for resolving issues and on the other, it deploys missiles at the border," he said last fortnight.

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In fact, the severest criticism coming Sharif's way is due to Gujral, whose 'precondition' that Kashmir be left out during talks with US President Bill Clinton—and the White House's acceptance of that demand—was a severe blow for Sharif. The opposition came down severely on Sharif, with the leader of the opposition saying he should cancel his New York visit. "Here is Gujral dictating terms to Clinton, while we bend backwards to please the White House even offering our own citizens (Aimal Kansi who killed two CIA employees and was later caught in Pakistan) to the Americans," said an opposition member.

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Ironically, it is the US visit of the two premiers which might send the two sides back to the negotiating table, no matter how reluctantly. With hectic US activity in the region expected in the coming months, no matter what the results, neither side wants to be seen walking out of these parleys.

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