Making A Difference

All Uphill Now

As the Maoist blockade kicks in, the kingdom stares at mass starvation and isolation

Advertisement

All Uphill Now
info_icon

It isn't a blockade military manuals or guerrilla handbooks recommend. There aren't bands of armed men who have laid siege to a city, hoping to bring its citizens to their knees. But make no mistake, Kathmandu, King Gyanendra's most vital redoubt, is already feeling the pinch because of the 'special strike' of the Maoists: vegetable prices have soared by 300 per cent over the last one week; other essential goods are disappearing from shops faster than these can be replaced, and the traffic on the vital Prithvi highway, which connects border outposts in Bihar to the city, is barely five per cent of the normal.

Last week, military convoys escorted about 200-300 trucks into the city, cutting their way through road-blocks Maoist insurgents had erected. Not all truckers were as lucky. Insurgents shot dead an Indian driver and wounded a dozen passengers who had defied the strike to travel down the Prithvi highway; a truck with 58 buffaloes was set ablaze; a few in rural Nepal had their hands and limbs chopped off for their audacity. In the Terai, people have been proscribed from even using bicycles for three months, and advised to stock essential commodities for the duration. "We are now in a decisive phase of our movement to overthrow the dictator king," declared Maoist supremo Prachanda in a statement issued from his hideout.

Should the current situation persist over the next two weeks, Nepal could nosedive into economic chaos, even starvation. As a diplomat puts it, at least 40 of the country's 75 districts are reeling under scarcity; this may trigger an avalanche of people's anger against both the Maoists and the king. It could further destabilise a country perched precariously. Almost all schools outside Kathmandu are closed; hospitals have reported shortage of oxygen and basic medicines.

There are other grim indicators of an impending economic upheavel. To celebrate the 10th anniversary of their movement, the Maoists have renewed their call for closure of 16 companies. These companies, targeted last year by the Maoists, are either in the public sector or are perceived to have substantial investments of the palace. Among the 16 are two with Indian interests: Surya Nepal and Colgate. Such is the fear of the insurgents that officials are planning to outsource some of the goods these companies produce and closing down the rest, thereby throwing thousands out of jobs and depriving the state exchequer of revenue. Already 30-40 of Nepal's top 300 companies have stopped their operations because of the paucity of raw material.

Nepal's mainstay, tourism, has been on the downslide from February 1, the day Gyanendra imposed emergency. Industry sources sarcastically say their most valued customers are journalists stationed here to report on Nepal's agony. One of the busier hotels, Yak and Yeti, reported an occupancy rate of just 25 per cent in February. "We had roughly 2,000 cancellations in this month alone," a source said.

The economic downturn has naturally hurt the business community which, ironically, had been effusive about the royal coup. "Things have only gone from bad to worse. Our initial hope that the emergency will help restore normalcy is fast changing into frustration and anger," laments a banker. And now, the Maoists are out wreaking vengeance against those in the business community who had supported the emergency. On February 23, for instance, the Maoists abducted a senior executive of the Chaudhary Group of Industries from West Nepal. The group had issued front-page advertisements in newspapers supporting the royal coup.

Hope of protection from the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) has proved abortive, distracted as it had been into undertaking functions other than fighting the Maoists. It had patrolled the streets in Kathmandu, guarded vital installations, and tightly monitored the media. Though RNA officers no longer swagger into newsrooms, their morale has dipped because of the decision of the international troika—India, the US and the UK—to put on hold military assistance. That could erode the army's capacity to battle the Maoists into submission. The last few weeks have seen the RNA's casualties mount. A general agrees, "We are fighting an unpleasant war."

The fury of the international troika has stumped King Gyanendra. They aren't willing to bail out the king who has harped on their fears, particularly India's, of the radical Reds and terrorism. Any help to fight the Maoists, the international community has reiterated, can follow only after restoration of multi-party democracy, civil liberties, and release of political leaders.

Observers say the king had grossly miscalculated the response of the international community to his despotic manoeuvres, besides underestimating the impact of opposition from mainstream political parties. In one stroke, the king has alienated these parties, most of whom favoured constitutional monarchy. Not only would these parties, hitherto prone to squabbling, band together, they would, like the Maoists, gradually challenge the authority and legitimacy of the king.

At the moment, though, the king isn't willing to relent. He's still dependent on hardline advisors who want the palace to take the battle with the international community to the next stage: ignore India and others; look for alternative sources of funding and supplies. Defence secretary Bishnu Dutt Upreti said as much in a media interview: "We will have to explore alternative sources of supply."

Upreti didn't name the countries to which Nepal could turn to. But given the tacit support of Pakistan, China and Russia to the king, Gyanendra could turn to them in his hour of need. There's also Israel, which is always eager to expand its market. Upreti's statement has credibility because he functions directly under Gyanendra who holds the defence portfolio. Upreti should know the monarch's mind, say diplomats.

The attempt to source supplies through other countries would be tantamount to taking the international troika head-on. The repercussions for the king could be serious. Nepal is dependent on massive foreign aid and at least 40 per cent of its budgetary assistance comes from external support. Can the king quickly square this amount through Pakistan, China, Russia and Israel? Unlikely. Again, India is too integrated into Nepal's economy to be substituted overnight. Sample these figures: India accounts for 35-40 per cent of Nepal's fdi; 62 per cent of its foreign trade is with India, which also supplies all of Nepal's petroleum demand. A large number of Nepalis work in India. Nepalis know China wouldn't extend the facility of employment to them. They don't want to get enmeshed in power games of their giant neighbours.

Also, Nepal hasn't forgotten the bitter experience of India's 18-month blockade of the country in the eighties, in response to Kathmandu's decision, among other things, to source arms from China. Any attempt by the king to play the China-Pakistan card could invite retribution. Besides, India too holds the additional card of actually assisting the Maoists. And, unlike the eighties, New Delhi has the support of Nepal's media and people to restrain the king adamant on walking the path of despotism.

Advertisement

Tags

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement