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Issues of development and governance would decide the fate of an unpromising BSP, renascent SP, hopeful Congress and a dispirited BJP in a changed Uttar Pradesh


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Daily Mail
Digression
1
Mar 12, 2012
What’s Your UPshot?

Whatever Yogendra Yadav may say, even a layman knows that the BSP is not doing well in UP and that the SP has the brightest chances of finishing first (The More They Don’t Remain the Same, Feb 27). The question is whether it’ll get a majority on its own. And though Yadav has dedicated most of his column on a party that is fighting hard to finish third, it is only fond hope on his part; there is no doubt that the party will finish a respectable last.

Ravinder Singh Shekhawat, Bikaner

Whether it translates into votes or not, there is no denying that Rahul Gandhi has been a great success in the UP election campaign. He is the only one who has focused on development issues: improvement of infrastructure, irrigation, power, education and employment. The bjp is back to Ayodhya. Mayawati has no interest in the progress of the people of UP; in their ignorance and backwardness lie her advantages. And Mulayam Singh Yadav, of course, is promising the moon. Now, it’s up to the intelligence and wisdom of the voters to think who serves their interests the best.

Virendra S., Wellington, New Zealand

In India, journalists write stories that sell, or what they see through their casteist lens, or tailored to whoever pays the most. Yogendra Yadav, on the other hand, is a respectable political analyst whose views you may or may not agree with, but which carry weight. But the caste mindset remains strong as ever. Who will tell a stranger that he or she is a supporter of a Dalit party?

Rajesh Chandra, Phoenix

It is almost certain that the SP will bag the highest number of seats if not a majority. In all likelihood, therefore, the Congress will extend outside support to SP, ostensibly to keep communal forces at bay and to avoid re-election. This alliance may last till 2014 when the Congress withdraws support, citing misgovernance in the state and then enter the election fray on its own. After all, there can be no doubt that Congress and Rahul are ultimately chasing Mission 2014.

Pramod Srivastava, New Delhi

My guess is that all commentators will be proven wrong and Mayawati will return to power again, even if she does not get an overwhelming majority.

Anshul, Indore

Even if the present BSP government is voted out of power—if at all it happens, it will be only due to anti-incumbency, nothing else—it will prove beneficial for them in 2014, when the stakes are going to be much higher.

Anand Tripathi, Lucknow

I think the SP will stun everyone this time with its performance across UP. It’s riding an upper-caste wave of anger and consolidating its position with the help of the Muslim and obc vote. Moreover, it’s the only party seen to be an effective opponent of the BSP. The SP could end up with 180-185 seats, if not more. The BSP is virtually finished this time. There is a huge anti-incumbency wave across UP and all castes, with the sole exception of Jatavs, have deserted Mayawati. But to say that a virtually cadre-less Congress can displace the BSP from second position, as Yogendra Yadav does, is a gross overestimate.

Chinmay, hyderabad

All I can say is, the people of UP are staring at a basket full of rotten apples. A rather joyless menu of options.

Gilbert D’Souza, Bangalore

Being a psephologist, Yogendra Yadav has kept all his cards open so that when the results come in he can say, did I not predict that?

S.C. Sharma, New Delhi

I think statisticians indulge in too much opinion-mongering. They worry too much about the skew in the datasets, not the bias in their own minds when they pass off opinion mixed with onground stats.

Kautilya, Washington DC

Rahul Gandhi’s career is yet to kick off, yet we already have “a first comprehensive biography” and a review of it in your magazine. And just a week after that, he is on your cover! If only Indira had married a person with a lesser surname, our nation would have been better off and the media wouldn’t be going ga-ga over the wrong Gandhi.

Umesh Kesavan, Madurai

So, what happens if Rahul fails? Nothing really. Your stories are based on the premise that the current elections will have national implications. Does anyone remember the 2011 election and its implications? Or the Bihar election? The Congress lost every election in 2008, yet managed to win handsomely in 2009. The bjp won big in 2003, only to be wiped out in 2004. Likewise, these elections will have no bearing three months from now. Wait and watch.

V.R. Ganesan, New Jersey

Order by HAVE YOUR SAY
1/D-73
Feb 18, 2012
01:14 PM

Balanced and readable article.

Anwaar
Dallas, United States
2/D-74
Feb 18, 2012
01:15 PM

The further we move from Indian independence 1947, the less the difference among the political parties.

The only difference seem to be on the divisive angles - some depending more on gender, some on caste, and some on religion, Gandhi family tragedy, female molestation, language etc. etc. 

No one seems interested in corruption anymore - with an undependable judiciary, it has become a sine quo non of the Indian political psyche.

Male Unblocked
Chennai, India
3/D-77
Feb 18, 2012
01:19 PM

 “The contest in UP is ‘EQUALLY POISED’ with all negativity, because all 4 major contenders have one BLOT or the OTHER.”

Rajneesh Batra
New Delhi, India
4/D-108
Feb 18, 2012
03:27 PM

Yogendra Yadav's writeup has no depth.He is swayed by the constant media hype about the influence of Rahul Gandhi on the outcome of UP elections.On the otherhand Nitish Gadkari saying that BJP will prove to be the 'Dark Horse' looks realistic.Mumbai results are a precursor to the results in UP elections.

S.S.Nagaraj
Bangalore, India
5/D-116
Feb 18, 2012
03:45 PM

It looks almost certain that the SP will bag the highest number of seats sans a majority. Therefore in all likelihood, the Congress would extend outside support to SP on the eternal excuses of keeping the communal forces away and to avoid the elections. This alliance may last until the close of the general elections 2014 when the Congress would withdraw support citing the misgovernance in UP and then enter the elections fray on its own. Afterall, the ultimate target of the Congress party and Rahul is Mission-2014.

Pramod Srivastava
New Delhi, India
6/D-117
Feb 18, 2012
03:53 PM

It looks very much like Mayavati is finished this time. She came to power last time solely because she had the support of the upper castes and the muslims, in addition to the entire Dalit votebank. The BSP was also the only viable option that time, as the SP was tainted and the Congress non-existent. Now the muslims and upper castes won't vote for her, and the some of the Dalits seem to be unhappy as well. The Congress has made inroads and  the SP has re-invented itself. The BSP's run is over.

G.Natrajan
Hyderabad, India
7/D-124
Feb 18, 2012
05:33 PM

No facts presented in this article. It is almost obvious that congress is not going to improve its tally. SP may gain some seats on the cost of BSP but not too many.

Abhianv
lucknow, India
8/D-135
Feb 18, 2012
07:26 PM

 Granted that it is an opinion piece from Yogendra Yadav, I think statisticians should not indulge in too much opinion airing. The bane of statisticians like Yadav is that they worry too much about the bias in the datasets and not in their own little minds when they pass off their opinions mixed with on-the-ground stats. 

Kautilya
Washington DC, United States
9/D-136
Feb 18, 2012
07:31 PM

 I think SP will stun everyone with its performance this time.It is riding a upper caste wave of anger and conoslidating its position with help of muslim and OBC vote.Moreover its the only party seen to be an effective opponent of BSP.SP could end up with 180-185 seats if not more.BSP is virtually finished this time.There is huge anti incumbency wave across UP and all castes with exception of jatav dalits have desrted mayawati.But to say a virtually ocadre less congress can displace BSP from second position is wrong.The fact is that voters in UP with muslims included are not interested in congress or rahul.The media hype around rahul and paid news has brought him this far and not more.BJP as usual will not get even 25 seats

chinmay
hyderabad, Iceland
10/D-138
Feb 18, 2012
07:40 PM

 Yogendra Yadav is a known sympathiser of congress and in this election his preference is out in the open.While i agree that SP is the front runner this time and it alone is going to be the biggest gainer this time even a simple majority cant be ruled out i find it amusing that yogendra yadav talks of a congress revival in UP.The fact is even in gandhi family bastion like raebareilly the party is facing very tough election in form of akhilesh singh .If this is the position of congress in their traditional stronghold what can be its fate in rest of UP.Yogendra Yadav should realise that massive media support cant make or break an election outcome.Its the public percption which matters.I have been wtaching UP from last one year and entire english and hindi media was obessed with rahul not even acknowleding presence of mulayam and his son akhilesh.

But did it make congress number one in state.Yogendra yadav is making himself a laughing stock when he says that muslim reservation will not impact the electoral outcome.Does he think UP OBCS are so dumb that they would quitely see their share of jobs and educational seats being snatched and gioven to muslims.Just wait for the results.BJP will surprise this time

chinmay
hyderabad, Iceland
11/D-150
Feb 18, 2012
09:29 PM

>>In a climate of cynicism, he has presented something of a forward-looking vision.

Congress apologists masquerading as independent observers will never change. On many occasions in the past, such observers have talked of Rahul presenting some new vision but they were conveniently silent on what this new vision was. Yadav is repeating the script this time too. So we have our 'independent media' busy spinning about Rahul's 'vision', his 'evolution', his 'coming of age' - translated as total BS!
 

RSM
Delhi, India
12/D-35
Feb 19, 2012
01:58 PM

An article by one YADAV-  YOGENDRA YADAV to "benifit" another YADAV- MULAYAM YADAV. Evidently the YADAV in Yogendra does not allow him to state that the best SP can hope is to form the UP Govt with Congress support. In return SP MPs will become "slaves" of Congress in Delhi to offset TMC.---------------------------- Rahul Effect??? Rahul who speaks about corruption in UP is totally silent on the most corrupt Congress led UPA GOVT- 2G, CWG, ISRO, ADARSH, BILLIONS in SWISS BANKS (500 BILLION $ as per CBI Director)----- What a shame that such articles are published in media claiming to be "independent".  

Charan dewry
Guwahati, India
13/D-7
Feb 20, 2012
07:20 AM

 Over the years, I have appreciated incisive data analysis and progressive opinions of Yogendra Yadav. This article further cements his reputation.

hitesh brahmbhatt
san diego, United States
14/D-9
Feb 20, 2012
07:38 AM

In India journalists write political stories that sell, or what they see through their casteist lens, or whoever pay most. Yogendra Yadav, on the other hand, is a respectable political analyst. Like or not, his views carry weight. 

But caste mindset is still strong. Who will tell a stranger he or she is supporter of a Dalit party? It is a matter of shame. What was the media prediction in the previous UP poll? I don't think anyone predicted Mayawati's win.

Rajesh
Phoenix, United States
15/D-28
Feb 20, 2012
11:14 AM

 I have always liked and respected Yogendra Yadav for his accurate and almost up to the point election surveys.But he should rather confine himself to his domian of doing surveys than passing political judgements.The fact is congress cant go beyond a point in UP where it lacks the organisation itself to make a mark.I have been watching yogendra yadav from sometime and he has been claiming congress can touch 100 seats.Probably he is getting carried away the media frenzy.The fact is if congress does cross 60 seats then it would be called a miracle

chinmay
hyderabad, Iceland
16/D-41
Feb 20, 2012
12:45 PM

///But he should rather confine himself to his domian of doing surveys than passing political judgements.The fact is congress cant go beyond a point in UP where it lacks the organisation itself to make a mark.I have been watching yogendra yadav from sometime and he has been claiming congress can touch 100 seats.///

He is claiming rightly and he knows it that kangres has planted a perfect set up for rigging of EVM if it worked. So they are doing their duty to create an atmosphere that results should look authentic if kangres win.

dinesh chauksey
bhopal, India
17/D-46
Feb 20, 2012
01:07 PM

Okay fine. BSP is going to lose badly. It is going to be at the 3rd place. Now, can someone explain why her rallies are 8-9 times bigger than Rahul Ji's rallies. We know, for sure, that the people don't come to her rallies to just gawk at her.

Amit
Tucson, United States
18/D-56
Feb 20, 2012
02:04 PM

Paid news service in full form.    BSP 3rd spot,BJP 4th spot and congress no 1 spot?  why can';t you also select congress CM and celebrate congress victory in advance?  

satish
udupi, India
19/D-61
Feb 20, 2012
02:36 PM

 Over the years, I have appreciated incisive data analysis and progressive opinions of Yogendra Yadav. This article further cements his reputation.

The way he predicted a Congresss-DMK victory in Tamil Nadu? I hope you jest, Sire.

Tearful Onion
Jhumri Talaiyya, India
20/D-90
Feb 20, 2012
09:15 PM

Articles like this lead us nowhere. Sh. Yadav speaks favorably of one party in one breath and counters it in the other. Being psephologist, he has tried to keep all the cards open so that in the end when the results come he may say, 'Did I not predict it that way?'  

SUBHASH CHANDRA SHARMA
NEW DELHI, India
21/D-96
Feb 20, 2012
10:55 PM

Cleverly, media is predicting SP strong as it'd take Congress' support and BSP as well as BJP weak as they may come together. In such a large state with four corner contest the speculation are coloured by personal preference. No one can tell the outcome until the day of counting.

Lata
Madrid, Spain
22/D-101
Feb 20, 2012
11:59 PM

 >>The way he predicted a Congresss-DMK victory in Tamil Nadu? I hope you jest, Sire.

Point well-taken, Sire. I still think Yogendra is a notch better than astrologers :)

hitesh brahmbhatt
san diego, United States
23/D-5
Feb 21, 2012
12:56 AM

Yadav's wishful thinking masquerading as analysis.

Bhagat Singh
Atlantis, Heard and McDonald Islands
24/D-12
Feb 21, 2012
02:33 AM

Subhash Ji,

"Sh. Yadav speaks favorably of one party in one breath and counters it in the other. "

That is why some chamchas of the Gandhi family find this article "balanced and readable".

Amit
Tucson, United States
25/D-15
Feb 21, 2012
02:50 AM

Amit,

>> That is why some chamchas of the Gandhi family find this article "balanced and readable".

It is sad that you have been reduced to being a smear artist! I was once fooled into thinking that you were a serious liberal discussant.

Anwaar
Dallas, United States
26/D-24
Feb 21, 2012
03:37 AM

 It is such a disappointing article coming from someone who claims to be social scientist. There is not any facts/statistics to support his analysis. 

Maha
NJ, United States
27/D-29
Feb 21, 2012
04:02 AM

Anwaar,

 I prefer to be a serious discussant, whether liberal or not, is a moot point. Now, can you explain me how this article is balanced. Mr. Yadav is apparently a statistician. I don't see any data analysis. All he needed to produce this bilge was a train ride through UP and viola he had all the answers. If he had done a survey, I would have taken his word with some seriousness. 

 I thought you were a serious discussant till I read you talk approvingly of Rahul Ji's and Priyanka Ji's innate wisdom. I can assure you that one can lay a trap in any nukkad in India and catch at least a dozen abler people than these dynastic junkies.

By all accounts, Mayawati has done a better work than her predecessors.

Amit
Tucson, United States
28/D-30
Feb 21, 2012
04:04 AM

Maha,

 Mr. Yadav has that rare crystal ball at his disposal. He doesn't need facts.

Amit
Tucson, United States
29/D-42
Feb 21, 2012
06:47 AM

Being psephologist, he has tried to keep all the cards open so that in the end when the results come he may say, 'Did I not predict it that way?'

Psephology - Astrology. Any difference?

Bonita
Chennai, India
30/D-54
Feb 21, 2012
10:46 AM

Amit,

I found the article balanced because it treats the pros and cons of all sides fairly. You may not find it balanced. That is your privilege.

Regarding talking " approvingly of Rahul Ji's and Priyanka Ji's innate wisdom", I don't think I have quite said that, but it is an angle that can be useful in order to needle the die-hard BJP-ites in the forum.

Anwaar
Dallas, United States
31/D-76
Feb 21, 2012
01:14 PM

Regarding talking " approvingly of Rahul Ji's and Priyanka Ji's innate wisdom", I don't think I have quite said that, but it is an angle that can be useful in order to needle the die-hard BJP-ites in the forum "

First it was Mai- Baap Sarkar .
Now it is Beta, Beti, Natis,Jami Sarkar !

(Cartoon in News Paper)

a k ghai
mumbai, India
32/D-112
Feb 21, 2012
06:19 PM

 Yogendra yadav is glib talking.A government with a Dalit lady at the helm has been in place in Uttar Pradsh for five years and it is already status quoist.Ha! Five years.That's it.What sort of social transfromation is expected from a government which has been in charge of the affairs of a state which can absorb three Australia and many Delhi's(if we go by the geographical extent of Uttar Pradesh) in it.The challenge is so huge.Sure,we must analyse and look back as to what has been achieved? But let there be a fair criticism.One should not judge a government's performance by one scale and use a different scale for another.Congress raj has been around for many years.BJP has also tasted power.Even Left front has a notable record of governing states like Kerala and West Bengal for long.Here.Just five years pass by and judgement is already out for a party.Let there be no foreclosure to a party's potential and its ability to influence politics and usher change.The change is not away.Just feel it. BSP  has already shaken up the status quoists.

sunil kumar
delhi, India
33/D-114
Feb 21, 2012
06:47 PM

 I think in ;last 20 days the situation in UP has changes so much that congress and BJP cant even hope for a decent performance leave alone coming back to power.A new social alliance of various castes to oust mayawati and her dalit dominated government is taking place across UP and all old calculations will come crashing down.Brahmins for some reason along with other upper castes are moving towards SP and this is no mean development.It has the potential to bust both BJP and congress.Secondly the failure of the muslims quota to play up gains for congrss is clearly visible with muslims rooting for SP and some prefering peace party but not many favoring congress.The failure of the quota card also means no gains for BJP with even OBCS tilting in mass towards SP.

I expect SP to surge hugely ahead and come close to 190 seats followed by BSP at a distant second with 85-90 seats.BJP and congress will each wont cross more than 50 seats each

chinmay
hyderabad, Iceland
34/D-128
Feb 21, 2012
08:47 PM

It would be a good thing if Congress or BJP comes to power in UP. Either of these parties will be infinitely better than SP and BSP.

Ganesan
Nj, USA
35/D-129
Feb 21, 2012
08:48 PM

Anwaar mian,

[[I don't think I have quite said that, but it is an angle that can be useful in order to needle the die-hard BJP-ites in the forum.]]

Thanks for admitting that you don't let facts get in the way of your arguments. But then, most people here already know about it and deal with you accordingly.

Alakshyendra
Hyderabad, India
36/D-131
Feb 21, 2012
08:57 PM

my uess is all commentrators will be proven wron and Mayawati will form overnment  aain. may be not with overwhelmin majority but clsoe to the maic number and with possible support from BJP

anshul
Indore, India
37/D-140
Feb 21, 2012
10:36 PM

>> "It would be a good thing if Congress or BJP comes to power in UP." - Ganesan

Well said. The first step should be an end of these caste/religion-centric parties like BSP, RLD, RJD, SP etc. But, it will be unfair to bucket them together. Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu and Naveen Patnaik are fine examples of how regional parties also deserve a place in our polity.

The Irreverent Indian
Online, India
38/D-84
Feb 22, 2012
01:42 PM

Wierd logic Mr Yadav,you say that Price Rise is NOT about inflation but governance?This is just one of the factual errors in this piece.

Last few days,there has indeed been a shift in the media wrt projection of the Prince.There has been a certain tempering of the news.This can be for one of the two reasons possible.

First possibility is the Prince thinks its unwinnable and is slowly reducing expectations and if this is so we will see him less and less on media on this issue to get an honorable exit.This could have a gameplan of a Presidents rule in UP and dismissal of MMS but no mid-term elections.

Second possibility is Prince has put into place a foolproof EVM rigging plan and would like to project results as a 'surprise'.The media will then focus on 2009 Cong performance as a comparison to keep dissenting voices 'down'.This will b followed by MMS dismissal or Presidentship move to make way for Mid-term elections to quickly translate UP model to whole India and get a a big LS majority on its own.

Unlikely third possibility is a middling performance,which will follow effects of second possibility with a lag.

Truth
Mumbai, India
39/D-95
Feb 22, 2012
02:59 PM

"Khan" gress ki admi hai yeh. Aur yadav hone ki nathe hi woh bol raha hai ki "SP stands for the restoration of order". 

hari
chennai, India
40/D-5
Feb 23, 2012
12:53 AM

Tthe article is absurd.. even a layman knows that bsp is not doing well and sp has the brightest chances of finishig first on the talley.. the biggest question is that can sp get the majority on its own.. and mr yadav is mum on that..its also no sectet that congress is trying hard to finish third in the talley.. and we see the wisdom of mr yadav that he has dedicated this article to a party that is working hard for the third position.. there is certainly something fishy.. is markandaya katju listening.. mr yadav.. i respected you a lot.. but am disappointed at your bias for khangress and this shoody picture of the up polls.. and let me tell u.. bjp is in for the third position.. and khangress will be at the respectable fourth position..  the articles seems to have an ulterior motive..

ravinder singh shekhawat
bikaner, India
41/D-25
Feb 23, 2012
09:13 AM

 Readers here seems to be either biased or short sighted. Rahul has been great success during the election campaign. He has focussed on development, employment, irrigation, power, education and improvement of infrastructure, while all other parties have said nothing on these issues. BJP is back to Ayodhya, mayawati, of course has no use to any progress of people of UP, because their ignorance & backwardness is her biggest assets. Mulayam is promising moon. Now it's really up to the intelligence and wisdom of the voters to think what is in their interst.

veekay
Wellington, New Zealand
42/D-56
Feb 24, 2012
11:38 AM

GANESAN >> It would be a good thing if Congress or BJP comes to power in UP. 

Your sweet little world is long gone. 

Rajesh
Phoenix, United States
43/D-54
Feb 25, 2012
12:41 PM

 Brahmins and the dalits in UP could go together ,has surprised many political and media pundits and there is no doubt the current BSP government could prove to be a role model for future political as well as social meshwork for other states too. Even if the present BSP government is voted out of power ,if it all it happens could be due to anti incumbency rather than anything else,it will prove beneficial for them in 2014 when the stakes are going to be much higher .No person is above his own preferences and biases,including  Mr Yogendra Yadav and hope he is proved wrong this time for the first preference for  people of UP is law and order,much beyond anything else.

Dr Anand Tripathi
Lucknow, India
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