Two leading opinion polls show a clear advantage for the BJP-led NDA with the Congress-led UPA heading for a rout. First, Following is the result of the opinion poll by the CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti-The Week national election tracker:
Seat projections by Prof. Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai
NDA: BJP+Shiv Sena+Akali Dal+LJP
UPA: INC+NCP+Kerala Allies+JMM+NC+RJD
Check out the detailed opinion poll on ibnlive.com: National tracker: Modi-powered NDA may get 234-246 seats, UPA 111-123
The NDTV poll projects the NDA winning even more:
AAP will have some consolation. Even if it is unable to sweep the polls, they will earn the gratitude of a clean nation if they put their election symbol to good use post polls.
"The Congress will do considerably better though they will lose some seats. The Aaam Admi Party (AAP) will do much better than people expect. Result: an AAP -Congress led coalition government." - K. Kant
Result: an AAP -Congress led coalition government , as people suspect.
Sadaband Dhume's Tweet on NDTV poll analysis: Prannoy Roy's panel last week was very balanced. He made sure that every shade of Modi-bashing was represented.
Don't be taken in by punditry on Indian elections. Pundits are nearly always wrong in their predictions. They predicted the BJP would win the last two elections and it proved not so. Beware especially of opinion polls in India. The pollsters are lazy people who - one can't blame them - sit in a few big cities and are reluctant to tramp about in the countryside and the festering slums in the blazing sun to find out what the lower class Indian really thinks. Finding that out is very hard work and it is much easier to do a quick phone poll.
I repeat to all those running over with expectation that Modi will sweep the polls: DO NOT COUNT ON IT. The middle class which is most in favour of him as a rule do not even vote as they do not want to stand in line in the hot blazing sun. It is the slum dweller and the peasant who votes in India.
So I will hazard a prediction myself.
Modi will do much worse than is expected by the pundits. The Congress will do considerably better though they will lose some seats. The Aaam Admi Party (AAP) will do much better than people expect. Result: an AAP -Congress led coalition government.
Keep the champagne cold, Mod wallahs. You are in for another big disappointment
Keeping in mind the national interests, people should give a clear majority to either of the two national parties, viz BDP or Congress. Congress rule for the last 10 years was not much to the satisfaction of the people because of the pulling of the coalition parties in different directions in their own selfish interests, that brought the Congress government to a standstill. If the BJP also were to find in the same situation as Congress with no clear mandate from the people, then we will have yet another non performing government for next five years at the center. People can vote for their regional parties in the Assembly elections but when it comes to the Center, they should vote only for the National parties.