POSTED BY Sundeep Dougal ON Mar 23, 2009 AT 06:53 IST ,  Edited At: Apr 13, 2009 01:07 IST

The pre-poll survey by Star News and Nielsen gives a clear lead to the Congress-led United Progressive alliance (UPA):

Graphics courtesy DNA

"The UPA total includes the projections for RJD, LJP and SP. The three parties have failed to reach a pre-poll agreement with the Congress but have been clubbed with the UPA, considering the probability of a post-poll alliance between them. Without the three, the UPA score stands at 210"

Other significant findings of the survey:

Maharashtra: Sharad Pawar's NCP is tipped to get 13 seats, one more than the Shiv Sena. The NCP-Cong-RPI combine will bag a total of 26 against the Sena-BJP's 22.

Bihar: The survey predicts RJD to be the ultimate loser with Lalu, Paswan and Congress not reaching an alliance. The RJD is tipped to get only 11 seats against the 24 it won the last time. Ramvilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party is tipped to increase its tally from four to six. NDA ally JD(U) will double its figure from eight to 16 in the 15th Lok Sabha.

Orissa: The divorce will benefit the BJP, not the BJD, whose last tally of 11 is expected to come down to nine.

Tamil Nadu: J Jayalalithaa's AIADMK, which drew a blank in the last election, still trails its main rival DMK. Jaya's party will get nine, while Karunanidhi's 24.

Andhra Pradesh: Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party is predicted to get 14 seats compared to five in the last elections, but is still behind Congress's 22.

***

But what needs to be kept in mind is that a week is a long time in politics and the week since the survey has seen some major developments -- collapse of the seat-sharing arrangement in Bihar and Jharkhand for the UPA, EC verdict on Varun Gandhi and the continuing spat between Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh. Meanwhile, for the third week in succession, DNA editors find UPA ahead:


 

Clearly, the effect of alliance trouble in Bihar and Jharkhand largely accounts for the variations from the last week's tally:

UPA 201
NDA 170
&TF 172

With seat-sharing talks coming unstuck for various combinations and equations changing with each passing day, the psephologists clearly have a nightmare on hand, and these forecasts should not be taken as anything other than indicative. The real fun and games would start only after the election results are out of May 16.

Graphics courtesy DNA

POSTED BY Sundeep Dougal ON Mar 23, 2009 AT 06:53 IST ,  Edited At: Apr 13, 2009 01:07 IST
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Daily Mail
Digression
4/D-132
Mar 25, 2009
12:56 PM
The Hindu mind is really stirred by Varun CD episode and this will not be realised by the psephologists.It will be NDA all the way,to reach around 290
S.S.Nagaraj
Bangalore, India
3/D-184
Mar 24, 2009
02:03 PM
survey looks like the audited reports of SATYAM and ENRON ,imagine! what people will think about NIELSON .
it is better to withdraw before the UPA dissolves in thin air.
Poor paying such a high price for food.
Middle class loosing jobs in droves.
Rich getting bankrupt.
But queen mary must win elections?
sushil jhunjhunwala
banglore, India
2/D-104
Mar 24, 2009
02:37 AM
What a farce. Shame!!!
LK Advani for PM
Vote BJP
rakesh
chicago, United States
1/D-199
Mar 23, 2009
05:24 PM
DNA and STAR prepoll survey is nothing but the continuation of their anti BJP propaganda that they are following through their media for the last few years.this "survey" is nothing but "service" for congrr and sonia funded by foreign agencies supported by vatican.
ravi
UAE, United Arab Emirates
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