Graphic Courtesy, CNN-IBN
The poll-madness has begun. Never mind how horribly everyone got their poll-predictions wrong the last time around. With elections due in April/May, CNN-IBN-CSDS is first off the mark confirming a hung parliament. Its key findings are:
Graphic courtesy, CNN-IBN
Another very key finding, once we take away the stats for allies, is that while the UPA is ahead, the Congress and the BJP are almost exactly where they were when results for the last Lok Sabha were announced. The difference in vote percentages is largely because of the allies lost by the BJP.
192 Seats in 'Toss-up' States
According to their findings, there are nine ‘toss-up’ states where the margins are so small that no survey can make a safe prediction. These are: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, Goa and Jharkhand -- out of which, the first three are the most crucial.
Read the detailed survey here
Modi has been stopped dead in his tracks in Mumbai. According to ABC-Beiselen poll, 18% would vote for Kejriwal, 21% for Rahul Gandhi and 51% for Modi.
I have seen the survey in the vikatan site itself. I had a fear that it might have been an hoax. For what it is worth, here is the question and the result
Q: To which alliance will you vote in 2014?(answer in votes and %
While the survey treats BJP and PMK as separate, there was an informal announcement the other day that BJP is going to tie up with MDMK and PMK. That changes the survey results in favor of BJP even further.
I would like to see more surveys before taking this as accurate. However, even if the survey is only 1/4th accurate, it is great news for BJP in a state where its voteshare is 2%.
Is there an undercurrent we are all missing or this is just a red herring?
Just to clarify. I have not seen the vikatan survey and the more I think about it, I am going to treat it as a farce till further confirmation in other opinion polls come in.
The most goofy and yet not a goofy election survey came out today in TN. Vikatan group's survey shows 40% of people in TN preferring BJP while 28% prefer ADMK and DMK each!!!
The results, on the surface, appear very goofy. But in the last 4 elections which I have seen, Vikatan group has consistently got the results right. The organization is credible as far past results are concerned.
Not sure what to make of this. And I have not seen how this will translate into seats. But even if the survey is only half correct, it would still be astounding.
If BJP enjoys this recognition in a state like TN(A BIG IF THERE), I wonder what is the mood of the country elsewhere.