Mobilization of voters on the promise of both economic development and Hindu pride has been a successful strategy in Indian politics, as Indira Gandhi’s Garibi Hatao (“Wipe Out Poverty”) campaign and L.K. Advani’s Ram Janam Bhoomi movement and Rath Yatra demonstrate. But mobilization on this basis is often contingent. When an emphasis on economic development will benefit Mr Modi, he will deploy it. When invoking Hindutva will promote his agenda, he will turn to it instead.
Mr Modi may be a CEO Prime Minister and he may also be a Hindu ideologue, but before these two he is a consummate politician, possessing significant political cunning. His foremost goal is to win elections and stay in power. In Gujarat, Mr Modi won three successive state assembly elections and in 2014, under his leadership the BJP became the first party to enjoy a single-party majority in the parliament in the last 30 years.
Among BJP party members, Mr Modi’s electoral record defines his brand. It is about nothing but a ruthless pursuit of victory. The man plays to win: if he has to put toilets before temples in one election or one constituency, he will go down that path. If in another electoral context he has to put temples before toilets, then this will also happen. It is an instrumental pursuit of power that has been honed over decades. We must remember that, even if we’d like to believe that democratic politics in a developing country like India does not necessarily favour the rich and well connected, this is far from true. In India, for a tea vender’s son to rise to the PM’s position, he must have serious political acumen. Mr Modi neither parachuted into the PM’s position like Dr Manmohan Singh, nor heads a party in which he is the undisputed leader like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Jayalalitha, or Sonia Gandhi are in their respective parties. He rose to the top within the BJP, one of India’s two major national parties. He is self-made.
Now with the elevation of Amit Shah, Mr Modi’s key strategist, to the position of BJP president, Mr Modi enjoys significant control of the party, but this control will only last as long as the BJP continues to win elections under him. When electoral reverses begin to happen, Mr Modi’s true test will arrive. It is worth highlighting that the BJP having lost two successive parliamentary elections under the leadership of L.K. Advani picked a new leader for the 2014 campaign. There are many in the party who believe they were equally if not more deserving of the leadership position after A.B.Vajpayee and L.K.Advani. For the moment these senior leaders have either been accommodated or sidelined, but they are biding their time, waiting for the opportune moment to rise again. Mr Modi knows that and he will use all the instruments at his disposal to stay ahead of the game, both within his party and outside of it. It remains to be seen whether instrumentalist strategies will deliver electoral returns, however. Overuse can easily backfire. 'India Shining' quickly lost its lustre and dividends on the Ram Janmabhoomi Movement petered out far more quickly than anyone anticipated.
Amit Ahuja is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at UC Santa Barbara. Susan L Ostermann is a Ph.D candidate at the Department of Political Science at UC Berkeley.
Thank you to all those who have taken the trouble to read the article and share their thoughts. Out of the arguments made here, there are two that perhaps need answering. So here they go.
1. The first part of the article compares outcomes (relative percentages of population of the religions concerned) irrespective of the process that led to those outcomes - whether immigration, relatively faster population growth or conversions. This was for two reasons. One, to put the figure of 2.3 per cent in "numerical perspective", as the article itself explained. The second reason was that outcomes are ultimately what the crux of debate is about. The rest of the article in any case dealt with process - or conversions in this case, from both a contemporary and historical perspective.
2. Some commenters have tried to cast doubts on the reliability of Census 2001. Those who do this should bear in mind that Census 2001 was conducted by a BJP government. Considering the extreme importance that BJP gives to this issue, it would be reasonable to expect that IF it had perceived a problem with the methodology that was distorting the numbers, it would have fixed it. As the article mentioned, BJP or BJP-supported governments have been in power for 10 of the last 40 years, or about a quarter of the time, and the only reasonable conclusion one can arrive at is that any misreporting of numbers, real or perceived, would be marginal and hence, not of importance.
To all other arguments made, my answer is the following: Please read the article again, with particular focus on the quotations of Vivekananda and Monier Williams, and the history of the missionary efforts in Bengal and their outcome.
Mr.Nasar, if Indians vote for Modi, what is your problem?
The young teenager is just out of school. He got high grade in exams and selected to AIIMS and just completed 60 days as medical student. And people here are unhappy because he fails to do complicated cardiac surgeries or does not treat cancer patients on his own.
For such people, the quack across the road who is expert in black magic last 60 years and treats all your illness by lies and deceit is the god. Please, go to him, get yourself cured. And yes if he asks for a child sacrifice , do that as well...
Modi beleives that his strategies have won him election and he will pursue it as long as he can.If the economy fails he can always shift to communalism.This is his mantra along with media manipulation that will bring him to sure victory.
After five year downfall of Modi`s sure because he promised so much that is impossible for him fulfill.Indian voter is fickle minded if soe one show him more hope he throw Modi to dustbin.IfModi want to survive he must give more hopes to Indians because I
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