This is not lost on Nilekani. As he formally launched his campaign, he said, “It speaks volumes about the achievements of an MP elected for five terms when he takes shelter under Modi.” The comment reflects, to a certain extent, the anti-incumbency that BJP MPs from Karnataka—18 in all, the most from any state—are facing. Conveniently, they have all opted to use Modi as a mascot in the hope of getting past the post. But it won’t be an easy task for Modi either. No doubt there is a Modi wave, at least in the urban areas. But it’s seriously under threat from caste equations, which, played well, power a win.
That was the route the BJP took to win in 2009. B.S. Yediyurappa had rallied the Lingayats and also broken into the ST votebank of the Congress. Drawing on the money power of the illegal mining lobby, he had reduced the Congress to six seats out of 28, with the JD(S) taking three seats. (Byelections changed the figures to BJP 18, Congress 9 and JD(S) 2.) The first BJP state government in the south had also delivered the most LS seats from any state to the BJP. But the corrupt rule of the “medieval monarchs”, as a senior bureaucrat had once described the government, ended in 2013 because Yediyurappa fell out with the party, was displaced, and set up his own Karnataka Janata Party (KJP). His scams did not matter to the people: his fledgling party secured a record 10 per cent of the vote in the 2013 assembly elections and a considerable section of the Lingayat vote also went to the Congress, which regained power.
Hoping to hold Ananth Kumar on the campaign trail
It was the caste combination galvanised by present CM Siddaramaiah—wooing OBCs, SCs, STs and the minorities—that helped the Congress win 121 seats in the assembly and end what had come to be known as the “Lingayat raj” of Yediyurappa. The BJP realised that the only way to counter this was to get Yediyurappa back, which would also re-establish its hold over northern Karnataka, where Lingayats are the dominant community. This was the thinking of leaders who mattered in the central leadership. But then there were Advani and Ananth Kumar, determined to keep Yediyurappa away.
They all agree that Modi has become popular in the towns and the cities but differ on whether this will convert into votes. In the rural areas, the Modi sentiment is countered by the Congress not with the programmes of the UPA government but with Siddaramaiah’s own Annabhagya scheme, which disburses cheap foodgrain, and the Ksheerabhagya scheme, which provides milk to school children daily. “But there’s one problem,” says senior Congress leader. “Siddaramaiah’s government is like Manmohan Singh’s in some ways. Neither he nor our party workers had gone to town popularising the fact that these programmes are different. We have not claimed ownership of these programmes.”
Similar is the story about the rights-based legislation in the utilisation of budgeted funds for the SC and ST sub-plans. This legislation even has a clause that says officials found not utilising the funds for the purpose assigned could face imprisonment. But more important than this is a politically significant point that is being put across by the Congress campaigners to consolidate the social axis, popularly known as the “Ahinda vote”, an acronym to describe the OBCs, the minorities and the SCs and STs. The reasoning is that if the Congress does not improve upon its previous tally and score at least 15 seats, the position of Siddaramaiah as CM will be in jeopardy. The biggest OBC constituent of Ahinda is the Kuruba or shepherd community, to which Siddaramaiah belongs. The Kurubas plus the Muslim vote constitute a considerable chunk in a little more than half a dozen constituencies. Add to this some sections among the SCs and OBCs. (Of course, the Lingayat votes gained in the assembly election will get cancelled out in the wake of denial of budgetry grants to community institutions that Yediyurappa had gallantly granted.) In short, the caste factor could well thwart any other sentiment.
So if leaders of both the major parties insist that it is a close fight and mark 18 to 19 constituencies in the “marginal” list, two conclusions can be safely drawn. One is that the Modi sentiment awaits the turnout of first-time voters, hoping they will put their fingers on the lotus on the voting machines. Two, Karnataka could well be bucking the national trend of voting against the Congress as the state had in the past during the regime of Devaraj Urs, the man who created a niche for himself and the Congress party by bringing the backward classes and minorities together. Twelve days before polling, the BJP and the Congress are talking about an equal number of seats, leaving one or two for the JD(S). It could well be a couple of seats more or less as the day of reckoning approaches—unless sometime drastic happens.
Imran Qureshi is a senior journalist
The weak link in the Congress campaign in Bangalore South is Nandan Nilekani’s much-touted Aadhar card itself (Powersoft Man, Apr 14). Thousands of us were made to run around to get this “very important document”. With it, even procuring cooking gas has become an ordeal. And now, after the Supreme Court verdict, even Aadhar enrolment stands orphaned.
H.N. Ramakrishna, Michigan
I am a BJP supporter but I have nothing good to say about Ananth Kumar. He’s a schemer and was responsible for the demise of the first BJP government in Karnataka.
Naveen Dhighe, Mumbai
A vote for Nilekani is a vote for the anti-national dynasty in Delhi. That’s enough reason not to vote for him.
Ravi Jain, Hyderabad
Thank you to all those who have taken the trouble to read the article and share their thoughts. Out of the arguments made here, there are two that perhaps need answering. So here they go.
1. The first part of the article compares outcomes (relative percentages of population of the religions concerned) irrespective of the process that led to those outcomes - whether immigration, relatively faster population growth or conversions. This was for two reasons. One, to put the figure of 2.3 per cent in "numerical perspective", as the article itself explained. The second reason was that outcomes are ultimately what the crux of debate is about. The rest of the article in any case dealt with process - or conversions in this case, from both a contemporary and historical perspective.
2. Some commenters have tried to cast doubts on the reliability of Census 2001. Those who do this should bear in mind that Census 2001 was conducted by a BJP government. Considering the extreme importance that BJP gives to this issue, it would be reasonable to expect that IF it had perceived a problem with the methodology that was distorting the numbers, it would have fixed it. As the article mentioned, BJP or BJP-supported governments have been in power for 10 of the last 40 years, or about a quarter of the time, and the only reasonable conclusion one can arrive at is that any misreporting of numbers, real or perceived, would be marginal and hence, not of importance.
To all other arguments made, my answer is the following: Please read the article again, with particular focus on the quotations of Vivekananda and Monier Williams, and the history of the missionary efforts in Bengal and their outcome.
Kannadigas should not vote for Nilekani who is ashamed to speak in Kannada despite living in Bangalore for so many years.Nilekani is not important since electing him can lead to Rahul Gandhi,the dud, to become PM.
VOTING FOR NILEKANI IN BANGALORE SOUTH === VOTING FOR AADHAR, AND NATIONALIZING YOUR PERSONAL LIFE (FINGERPRINTS, IRIS SCAN) == VOTING TO CONVERT INDIA INTO A NORTH KOREA STYLE POLICE STATE OWNED BY THE SONIA DYNASTY.
Dear Banglore South residents - Please please dont do the mistake, Dump the CROOK NILEKANI and ensure that CON Party also forgets him. He is worse than likes of DIGVIJAY SINGH..
A vote for Nilekani is a vote for the anti-national dynasty in Delhi, that's enough reason not to vote for him.
I AM A BJP SUPPORTER BUT I HAVE NOTHING GOOD TON SAY ABOUT ANATH KUMAR THE PERSON PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEMISE OF THE IST BJP GOVT IN KARNATAKA HE IS A ADVANI GROUPIE AND TRIED HIS BEST TO PREVENT MODI ASCENT TO DAY THIS SHADY POLITICAN IS AT MERCY OF NARENDRA MODI AND YEDIUIRAPPA FOR HIS SURVIVAL
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