Exit polls conducted by major television networks have placed NDA ahead of Congress
and its allies in the 140 constituencies that went to polls in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections held
While 'Aaj Tak' put NDA on the top with 93 seats, five more than in the last
elections, 'Star News' projected that the BJP-led combine would get 80 seats.
Congress and allies were projected to get 53 by 'Star News' and 44 by 'Aaj Tak',
while the two channels gave "Others" three and seven respectively.
The Zee-Taleem survey showed NDA getting between 63 and 78 seats and the Congress and
its allies between 37 and 50 seats. It gave up to 16 seats to "Others".
The DRS-Sahara exit poll showed the saffron-led combine getting 82 seats, six less
than in 1999, while the Congress getting 55 - nine more than last time and "Others" getting 3.
The Indian Express -NDTV exit poll indicates 75 seats for the NDA,
53 for the Congress and "Others" 12. The NDA is expected
to make significant gains in Karnataka and Maharashtra. In Andhra, the Congress-Telangana
alliance is expected to do better than the BJP- TDP
Based on the assumption that similar polling trends would continue in the remaining
phases of elections, the 'Aaj Tak' gave "early seat projections" for all the 543 Lok Sabha
constituencies, predicting 288 for NDA, 159 for Congress and allies and 96 for "Others".
'Aaj Tak', which made its predictions on the basis of interviews of 31,108 electors
spread over 16 states and UTs, said that both NDA and Congress and allies would improve their vote share by
four per cent each while other parties parties would lose four per cent.
According to it, NDA would get 49 per cent
votes in the first phase, Congress and allies 44
per cent and other parties seven per cent.
Based on the first phase polling,
the Indian Express-NDTV exit poll has forecasted 260-280 seats for the NDA in
the 14th Lok Sabha. The Congress and its allies are expected to do better than
earlier predictions with around 165-185 seats. The "Other" parties ,
which also include BSP and Samjawadi Party are expected to get 110-115
The Indian-Express NDTV predictions are based exit poll conducted in 57 of the
148 constituencies that went to polls in the first phase. A sample size of
23,096 voters were interviewed. In each of the 57 constituencies, two assembly
segments were selected at random and 500 people were interviewed in each
segment, after they had casted their votes.
By and large the polls today showed a sweep for the BJP in Gujarat, but a neck and neck race in Maharashtra.
While the Aaj Tak polls showed BJP getting 23 out of 26 seats in gujarat, Zee showed the party getting between
18 and 20 seats and the rest going to Congress.
In Maharashtra, the polls showed the Congress-NCP winning in 12 out of the 24 seats
for which polls were held today. The BJP-Shiv Sena is likely to get 11 while the BSP two to three, the Aaj Tak
Zee projected 10-12 seats to Cong/NCP and 6-8 seats to BJP-Shiv Sena.
In Andhra Pradesh, TDP-BJP combine was seen to be lagging behind with eight while
Cong and allies were getting 13 in 21 of the 42 seats that went to polls, Aaj tak said. Zee gave the Congress
combine 10-12 seats and the TDP-BJP 8-10 seats.
Surprisingly, according to Zee the TDP and BJP were doing well in Assembly polls and
were ahead in 63-71 seats while the Congress was close with leads in 70-76 of the 147 seats where polling was
Aaj Tak survey in Karnataka showed BJP ahead with 11 seats and Congress in four of the 15 Lok Sabha
constituencies which went to polls, while the Zee gave BJP 3-5 seats, Congress 4-6 and JD(Secular) 2-4 seats.
In Bihar where polling was held in 11 seats, JD(U)-BJP combine was ahead in nine,
while Congress-RJD was ahead in 2-3 seats, Zee showed, while Aaj Tak gave same projections.
Aaj Tak showed Congress getting two seats in Orissa and the BJP-BJD combine ahead in
nine of the 11 seats, while Zee gave BJP-BJD 5-9 and Congress 3-5. In Jharkhand, Zee showed BJP ahead in five
of the six seats, while Aaj Tak gave it lead in four seats with the remaining going to Congress. In
Chhattisgarh, they showed the BJP ahead in 5-7 and Congress ahead in 3-5 in the eleven seats of the state.
Thank you to all those who have taken the trouble to read the article and share their thoughts. Out of the arguments made here, there are two that perhaps need answering. So here they go.
1. The first part of the article compares outcomes (relative percentages of population of the religions concerned) irrespective of the process that led to those outcomes - whether immigration, relatively faster population growth or conversions. This was for two reasons. One, to put the figure of 2.3 per cent in "numerical perspective", as the article itself explained. The second reason was that outcomes are ultimately what the crux of debate is about. The rest of the article in any case dealt with process - or conversions in this case, from both a contemporary and historical perspective.
2. Some commenters have tried to cast doubts on the reliability of Census 2001. Those who do this should bear in mind that Census 2001 was conducted by a BJP government. Considering the extreme importance that BJP gives to this issue, it would be reasonable to expect that IF it had perceived a problem with the methodology that was distorting the numbers, it would have fixed it. As the article mentioned, BJP or BJP-supported governments have been in power for 10 of the last 40 years, or about a quarter of the time, and the only reasonable conclusion one can arrive at is that any misreporting of numbers, real or perceived, would be marginal and hence, not of importance.
To all other arguments made, my answer is the following: Please read the article again, with particular focus on the quotations of Vivekananda and Monier Williams, and the history of the missionary efforts in Bengal and their outcome.
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